Connerly was going to go to UW until Phil Knight bought him. Sad but true.
My sources, which are little better than Kim's blonde intern, tell me that Lake fucked up his recruiting. Apparently, Lake and his ego liked turning the table on recruits and, instead of selling his program, tried to make recruits justify why they should be on the roster. From everything I've heard about Lake, that tracks. People have said his ego takes up two zip codes.
From the SI article (I can't find the other one I read that had more detail):
Though he was just down the street, Conerly was never going to play for the Huskies. Take your pick for the reason: 1) Oregon presented a much more attractive NIL offer that dwarfed the one in Montlake; 2) then-Husky coach Jimmy Lake had a weird way of making recruits sell him on them, not the other way around; 3) the UW program became an unforgivable mess; or 4) all of the above.
If I recall the timeframe correctly, #3 could be a big one. That happens. Miami just lost a highly regarded safety - actually their highest rated recruit - to hated Florida. Unlike other recruits, has been pretty open about why he left and flipped to hated Florida (from the Miami Herald):
And Stubbs didn’t hold back when explaining his reasoning, citing concerns he has for the Hurricanes’ future with the defense struggling in conference play this season and the nation’s top-ranked offense set to lose most of its key contributors from this year’s team. “It was looking like it was a player thing and a coaching thing, and that’s most likely a coaching thing,” Stubbs said on Stadium and Gale, a UF-centric podcast. “I think I didn’t want to go into a bad situation, and it’s a way better situation at Florida on defense right now. And offense, but defense, too.”
Basically, he's saying he saw the G Tech and Syracuse games and came to the conclusion the guys recruiting him can't coach on gameday. So, it's not always 100% about money. Recruits today expect to come in and play and get the college think wrapped up in a couple of years. Few want to sign up for a project.