Frankly, this deal is about as BAD as it gets for UW if we're being completely honest about it
Given that the leadership of UW has shown a consistent inability to be anything but shortsighted, they will view the media numbers as an absolute and not consider the implications of the decision on any other front whether it be financially or not ...
The bar for UW to leave for the Big10 (should the opportunity even be available) is ugly given the tie-ins with Olympia and what leaving Wazzu hanging looks like ... I think we all would agree that given how UW operates this is a scenario that they want to avoid at all costs
The positive of this deal is that it roughly establishes a floor that should be above the Big12's number (requiring them to raise funding that they likely don't have to bring UW in - and into a conference UW really doesn't want anything to do with) while also establishing an on-table offer that the Big10 can't negotiate at a lower rate than
The negatives to this deal though are vast (in no particular order):
1) It in no way, shape, or form reflects the changing environment of college athletics and the need to get into a P2 conference ... all recommendations would be to grab an available seat at first opportunity
2) Signing any GOR over any kind of long-period could create barriers that make achieving 1) costly IF further movement takes place before the GOR expires (or faster than you're expecting)
3) It includes a fundamental assumption that there will be clear access to the CFP in the next contract with the expanded field ... that's far from a guarantee
4) It fails to recognize the negative implications that will almost assuredly take place in recruiting as players will increasingly choose schools that are playing the biggest games on the biggest channels against the best competition
5) Full streaming of sports without network presence has yet to establish itself as a viable path as the bet MLS has made I don't think has performed well (Messi excluded ... and there's not a Messi coming to save the PAC) ... this will be another hit to recruiting
6) While money will not be terrible it will still be lagging significantly against the P2 and leave you at risk in terms of money and opportunity to win at the highest level (and everything that comes with that) to attract and retain high level staff at both the head coaching and assistant/coordinator levels ... very good chance you are viewed as a "stepping stone" for the duration of the agreement
7) Delaying entering a P2 conference (if an offer is available) will set the baseline of the program back (if you believe the points above) and as such the climb to be competitive in a P2 conference upon joining eventually will likely take the better part of a decade to get there if the path follows some more recent examples of such (see Utah, TCU, etc.)
8) Failure to consider the impact of remaining in the PAC on other revenue streams is a MASSIVE MISS ... I'd expect that the UW season ticket base will drop by double digit %'s at minimum (my guess is Year 1 drops around 10k from wherever this year's number is going to be at)
9) We've already seen evidence of this, but there's going to be a massive inability to schedule strong out of conference competition
10) The conference by the end of the deal will largely look like a G5 conference with a couple of strong programs on top of it as the gap increases as the minnows of the conference struggle with way below competitive revenue levels in a rising expense environment
Of course, the big unknown to all of this is what is actually the communication between UW and the Big10 ... I've noted throughout this ordeal that getting the required votes for UW's inclusion in the Big10 is far from a given as there's a lot of the middle tier of the Big10 that IMO doesn't have the motivation to bring in a program like UW (or Oregon) that will likely push them further down the pecking order. There are a lot of non-financial reasons that taking a Big10 offer (if on the table) is vitally important and will pay for itself in time.
IF there is no offer on the table from the Big10, then to me it really comes down to a gut call on what positions you better in 5-6 years to be positioned in a P2 Conference. The path forward with the PAC is kicking the can down the road with really no positive outcome when this contract expires as I don't see future poaching of the Big12 on the table. So you're all-in on the Big10 sending you a future lifeline. If you have assurances of that then you might be able to pull off staying in a PAC there to effectively blow you for duration of the contract. But if not, you need to get out. The subscriber provision could be a poison pill to Athletic Department financial planning and if it isn't at a high level then the view of PAC vs Big12 may shift (much less the Big10).
Unfortunately, I don't have any confidence in UW's leadership to make the right decisions and they'll make the short-term play, buy the sales pitch, and be blinded when some of those 10 big negatives materialize.
I'm frankly shocked that a plausible scenario for UW to remain in the conference presented itself ... absolutely the worst case scenario.
