Maximum Carnage Week Game Thread

4.75%

7 day rolling deaths still less than 1, with incomplete data.
Click to expand...

4.69%

rolling deaths still less than one.

I'm a bit perplexed that the death data is on a lag. I mean, if someone is in the hospital due to complications to covid, why does that data take so long to report? Makes you wonder. Buddies grandfather died about a month ago, was positive for covid in March. I'd venture he has counted towards a positive covid death despite his heart just stopping, and being 98 or something.
Click to expand...

Has anyone out there published what the baseline positive rate is?

Not just the tests technical constraints but the observed or estimated false positive rate when you take into account misreporting, sampling error, contamination, and countless other little hiccups that occur in the real world. I dont understand why the positive rate (still pointless), as it appears to approach an asymptote doesn't have confidence intervals or uncertainty bars included.

The baseline positive rate is a >0 number...
 
No clue. Interestingly last week WA actually back reported negative tests for a day or two. But I can't really answer your question. I just know I think WA's goal is 2% positive tests as point of total opening.
 
https://twitter.com/nygovcuomo/status/1310722984076865537?s=21

zn2b3kcqkedr.jpeg
 
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4.75%

7 day rolling deaths still less than 1, with incomplete data.
Click to expand...

4.69%

rolling deaths still less than one.

I'm a bit perplexed that the death data is on a lag. I mean, if someone is in the hospital due to complications to covid, why does that data take so long to report? Makes you wonder. Buddies grandfather died about a month ago, was positive for covid in March. I'd venture he has counted towards a positive covid death despite his heart just stopping, and being 98 or something.
Click to expand...

Has anyone out there published what the baseline positive rate is?

Not just the tests technical constraints but the observed or estimated false positive rate when you take into account misreporting, sampling error, contamination, and countless other little hiccups that occur in the real world. I dont understand why the positive rate (still pointless), as it appears to approach an asymptote doesn't have confidence intervals or uncertainty bars included.

The baseline positive rate is a >0 number...
Click to expand...

Agreed, the positivity rate is pointless as constructed. But it’s Jays pointless metric, so it’s the best case to point out the moving goalposts.

Positivity rate would actually be somewhat interesting with random gun point sampling.
 
https://twitter.com/Hold2LLC/status/1308051766718730242?s=20
Click to expand...

Anyone actually think this is still a thing?

Will be hilarious when Trump wins and the blue states that kept the lockdowns going will be asking for federal money.

They’ll get it in the end, with forced austerity. That’s how you blow up the public unions.
Click to expand...

Even HHutzky is giving up on the Hoax.
https://twitter.com/adam_creighton/status/1308652790823051264?s=21
Click to expand...

So basically you have a better chance of being killed by falling commercial aircraft parts than dying from Covid.

Good game @HHusky

It's over.
Click to expand...

Can't get an sla like that except from microsoft.
 
I was in Astoria today, went to Costco, the greeter lady (who I think was fired from Walmart) would not let my wife in without a mask.
The manager came up and stated that by a Oregon Goobernatorial mandate they could not allow us in.

And I was just reading how the real tyrants are the locals enforcing the State non-laws.

My renewal for Costco is up this month, it was a good run. (like they will miss me)
 
Has anyone seen any data on where people get Covid? With all the contact tracing, one would think there would be good data on this by now.

You hear random "stories", but where is the data?

I mean, I have been to the beach a lot with hundreds if not thousands of people around. Are surfers getting Covid?

 
I was in Astoria today, went to Costco, the greeter lady (who I think was fired from Walmart) would not let my wife in without a mask.
The manager came up and stated that by a Oregon Goobernatorial mandate they could not allow us in.

And I was just reading how the real tyrants are the locals enforcing the State non-laws.

My renewal for Costco is up this month, it was a good run. (like they will miss me)
Click to expand...

Costco is just following the state law. The law in fact only allowed for a three month a dem governor mandate but the equally leftard Oregon Supreme Court came up with an unlimited time limit.
 
Nashville Tennessee hid the lack of contact tracing of the chicom crud to restaurants. Because "Science"
 
Thanks - the Vid is turning retail stores into law enforcement, I see.

Medical exemptions be damned I guess
 
Science aslo be damned. The average age of new chicome crud cases is under 40 and the crud is materially less deadly for those under 60 than the H1N1 flu.
 
KUOW used their grim voices last night to report on a recent uptick, nay, surge in cases. If Jay hadn’t already seen his shadow, that did it.
 
Going to be awkward backstage when Tapper bumps into Fredo.
https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1311752083280982017?s=21
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There is a whole thread I started on this that our guardians of truth have no interest in

What until the Governor finds out Fredo called him a liar in an interview with Cruz

"Of course not!" Cruz exclaimed. "We could have a very reasonable policy discussion about the policy mistakes in New York, New Jersey of sending COVID-positive patients into nursing homes and I think that was a very serious policy mistake."

"Mhm, because that didn't happen all over the country, right?" Cuomo said.

"No, it didn't happen in Texas. That's one of the reasons why the death rate in New York is four times the death rate in Texas," Cruz responded.
 
4.75%

7 day rolling deaths still less than 1, with incomplete data.
Click to expand...

4.69%

rolling deaths still less than one.

I'm a bit perplexed that the death data is on a lag. I mean, if someone is in the hospital due to complications to covid, why does that data take so long to report? Makes you wonder. Buddies grandfather died about a month ago, was positive for covid in March. I'd venture he has counted towards a positive covid death despite his heart just stopping, and being 98 or something.
Click to expand...

Has anyone out there published what the baseline positive rate is?

Not just the tests technical constraints but the observed or estimated false positive rate when you take into account misreporting, sampling error, contamination, and countless other little hiccups that occur in the real world. I dont understand why the positive rate (still pointless), as it appears to approach an asymptote doesn't have confidence intervals or uncertainty bars included.

The baseline positive rate is a >0 number...
Click to expand...

@huskyhooligan
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1311343789550776331?s=20
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30453-7/fulltext

Operational false positives is exactly what I was trying to get at... glad someone out there atleast attempted a scientific estimate.

For reference;

Washington "Safe Start" requires Counties have fewer than 25 new cases per 100,000 residents over a 14-day span.

This estimate would indicate a false positive rate of 8-40 per 1,000 tests... 800-4000 false positives per 100,000 tests
 
Last edited:
4.75%

7 day rolling deaths still less than 1, with incomplete data.
Click to expand...

4.69%

rolling deaths still less than one.

I'm a bit perplexed that the death data is on a lag. I mean, if someone is in the hospital due to complications to covid, why does that data take so long to report? Makes you wonder. Buddies grandfather died about a month ago, was positive for covid in March. I'd venture he has counted towards a positive covid death despite his heart just stopping, and being 98 or something.
Click to expand...

Has anyone out there published what the baseline positive rate is?

Not just the tests technical constraints but the observed or estimated false positive rate when you take into account misreporting, sampling error, contamination, and countless other little hiccups that occur in the real world. I dont understand why the positive rate (still pointless), as it appears to approach an asymptote doesn't have confidence intervals or uncertainty bars included.

The baseline positive rate is a >0 number...
Click to expand...

@huskyhooligan
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1311343789550776331?s=20
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30453-7/fulltext

Operational false positives is exactly what I was trying to get at... glad someone out there atleast attempted a scientific estimate.

For reference;

Washington "Safe Start" requires Counties have fewer than 25 new cases per 100,000 residents over a 14-day span.

This estimate would indicate a false positive rate of 8-40 per 1,000 tests... 800-4000 false positives per 100,000 tests
Click to expand...

Not even taking into account the increased sensitivity of the US test.
 
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