Maximum Carnage Week Game Thread

4.75%

7 day rolling deaths still less than 1, with incomplete data.
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4.69%

rolling deaths still less than one.

I'm a bit perplexed that the death data is on a lag. I mean, if someone is in the hospital due to complications to covid, why does that data take so long to report? Makes you wonder. Buddies grandfather died about a month ago, was positive for covid in March. I'd venture he has counted towards a positive covid death despite his heart just stopping, and being 98 or something.
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Has anyone out there published what the baseline positive rate is?

Not just the tests technical constraints but the observed or estimated false positive rate when you take into account misreporting, sampling error, contamination, and countless other little hiccups that occur in the real world. I dont understand why the positive rate (still pointless), as it appears to approach an asymptote doesn't have confidence intervals or uncertainty bars included.

The baseline positive rate is a >0 number...
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@huskyhooligan
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1311343789550776331?s=20
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30453-7/fulltext

Operational false positives is exactly what I was trying to get at... glad someone out there atleast attempted a scientific estimate.

For reference;

Washington "Safe Start" requires Counties have fewer than 25 new cases per 100,000 residents over a 14-day span.

This estimate would indicate a false positive rate of 8-40 per 1,000 tests... 800-4000 false positives per 100,000 tests
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Inslee’s 25 new cases bar is fuckingly stupid.

New cases mean shit. Show me hospitalizations.
 
https://twitter.com/martinkulldorff/status/1310952468700975104?s=21
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PCR, that’s active infection right?
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Yeah I assume they’re trying to see how much asymptotic load there was.

They were doing zero mass testing for quite a while. I was in NY with a Swedish colleague in early March and he got sick on his trip home. He is 65 and got super sick for 3 weeks, they continually denied him a PCR test.
 
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