https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/04/07/cdc-chief-actual-death-toll-much-much-much-much-lower-wh-model-thanks-social-distancing/
I’d been feeling mildly optimistic lately about the progress of the epidemic, but if this guy and his useless agency are feeling optimistic too then I’m firmly pessimistic again.
Weren’t Birx and Fauci complaining just a few days ago that Americans weren’t doing enough social distancing to avoid the grim scenario of 100,000-240,000 people dead, as the White House model projects? How did we get from that to the head of CDC going full wowzers about social distancing efforts in a radio interview in less than a week?
Why can’t these people ever seem to get their story straight?
The early predictions of the COVID-19’s expected death toll in the U.S. assumed about half of Americans “would pay attention to the recommendations,” CDC Director Robert Redfield said Monday in an interview with AM 1030 KVOI Radio in Tucson, Ariz.
“What we’re seeing is a large majority of the American public are taking the social distancing recommendations to heart,” he said. “And I think that’s the direct consequence of why you’re seeing the numbers are going to be much, much, much, much lower than would have been predicted by the models.”
CNN confirmed today that the famously opaque White House model does indeed assume that only 50 percent of Americans would heed the recommendations about social distancing. But … why the hell would they think that when 95 percent of the country is now under stay-at-home orders? Practically all nonessential businesses are closed. Where exactly are Americans supposed to congregate, even if they wanted to flout the social distancing guidelines?
A week after unveiling a stunning projection for the number of people who would die from coronavirus in the US — 100,000 to 240,000 — White House officials have yet to fully explain how they arrived at those numbers…
A source close to the task force said it’s possible the eventual death toll will be “way under” the 100,000-to-240,000 figure.
A key factor driving the large estimate was a crucial assumption, discussed internally by task force officials, that only 50% of Americans would observe the government’s stringent social distancing guidelines, the source said. That calculation was not shared widely. In reality, a much larger number — 90% — is observing the government’s guidelines, US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams said in several interviews this week.
