Mad Son's Ramblings: Year Three is Prove-It Time for Petersen

[puppylove_sugarsteel]

I feel like a broken record. I know Rutgers was keying on the run and giving us the pass. That doesn't change that I didn't see the results I needed to see that something had changed. Null hypothesis is that things are the same until shown otherwise.

A better way of saying this then would be that I'm looking forward to signs that this team has improved on the OL and in the running game (and in fairness, the running game IN GENERAL was fairly good last year as it began to solidify as inexperienced players gained experience) ... after the first game of the 2016 season, the grade for this is INCOMPLETE given the nature of Rutgers defense, their tendency to sell out to stop the run (at the expense of the vertical passing game), and the outcome of the game being decided by no later than halftime.

To suggest that the OL performed poorly or whatnot in a game where the team won 48-13, played significant depth even leading into the eventual pulling of the starters, and was working through the 2nd and 3rd units by the middle of the 3rd quarter at the latest is insanely FS to me.

Translation Plagiarism...good stuff

 

[EsophagealFeces]

Puppy wanted Sark to have a 6th year. People forget that.

Uh, pup wanted him gone before he ever stepped on field dipshit.

Liar. You openly campaigned for his 6th year.

J that aint close to true. I was here bashing Sark in 2013. I bashed Sark on Dawgman from day 1, whic h is why I got banned. Now here, I remember why I dont come here...but will as I like to drag your pussy through the mud.

Now if your going to lie about Pup wanting Sark, find proof. I was the original on the topic Ty's 0-12 team Sark took over was better than Sark's team when he left. Now I see your brain firing up a memory , which are few and far between

No one was harder on Sark than puppy was.

Wow, some actually follow.

I pray to REAL God that you're the greatest whoosh in the history of whooshes. The more likely case is that you're the dumbest fucking Doog in the history of dumb fucking Doogs.

 

[AEB]

I feel like a broken record. I know Rutgers was keying on the run and giving us the pass. That doesn't change that I didn't see the results I needed to see that something had changed. Null hypothesis is that things are the same until shown otherwise.

THIS!

The other night I was Dilaudid-sext-ranting to Coker about Bayesian analysis and why you have to take all years of Petersen as meaningful prices.

He deserves a medal.

That should be 'priors' not 'prices'. Fucking AutoCorrect.

It's hard.

But yeah, as my class poaster friend @Mad_Son is saying the idea is this:

The important premise is we are predicting something that changes, but is not random.

Given that the pattern of data is not random, data already gathered can help you make more accurate (not 100% accurate, just MORE accurate) predictions about the future.

So, we just look at what we've gotten out of Pete so far... let's make it simple and not even use stats, just grades.

2014 Offensive Grade: C-
2014 Defensive Grade: B+

2015: Offensive Grade: D
2015 Defensive Grade: A-

What are the grades for 2016 likely to be?

And then, even more than that... Given our prior knowledge, what new information would we view as satisfactory evidence that a new pattern was emerging?

And you're comfortable that 27 observations of a dynamic portfolio of 85 units (most of which Pete had no choice to include or not) is a large enough sample from which to draw conclusions? Askin for a fren

 

[Baseman]

Coach effect does not equal game management.

You'd have to be regularly punting on third down to cost your team three wins in one season via game management.

Game management is wrapped up in there. It is a much larger term that encompasses nearly every aspect of the team, as I tried to acknowledge. I maybe wasn't as explicit in mentioning the offense there as I had intended to be. Basically those are the areas where we are under-performing and it is costing us games.

All coach effect does is compare recruiting rankings to results.

So, assuming the recruiting rankings are unbiased, coach effect attempts to measure every single aspect of coaching from identifying underrated talent to development to roster management to motivation to team-building to game management, etc.

Game management is the most visible aspect of coaching but also the most overrated. A lot of awful fourth down decision makers have won Super Bowls and crystal footballs.

Yes, so my logic is that if everything other than game mangement and the offense is good then those are what is costing us three games as per CFBMCE. Realistically if we are overachieving in say defense and off-season stuff then those two bad aspects are potentially costing us more than three wins. I acknowledged I did a poor job of showing game management and offense were linked concepts in the context of CFBMCE. I shouldn't have made offense a separate paragraph or I should have separated out game management into the offense paragraph.

Your logic is flawed.

Once again- a monkey picking plays using a random play generator wouldn't cost his team three full wins in a season. It's ludicrous

Take CP's most derided decision - to hand off to Cooper. An overly generous estimation would be that UW's win probability decreased from 99.5% to 95%.

In other terms that decision, as fucktarded as it was, cost UW less than .05 wins in expectation.

Not so fast, Two games, Oregon and Arizona, were pissed away through poor play calling and game management. Utah? Is that three? And oh yeah, that decision to punt? Pure pussy.

 

[Dennis_DeYoung]

I feel like a broken record. I know Rutgers was keying on the run and giving us the pass. That doesn't change that I didn't see the results I needed to see that something had changed. Null hypothesis is that things are the same until shown otherwise.

THIS!

The other night I was Dilaudid-sext-ranting to Coker about Bayesian analysis and why you have to take all years of Petersen as meaningful prices.

He deserves a medal.

That should be 'priors' not 'prices'. Fucking AutoCorrect.

It's hard.

But yeah, as my class poaster friend @Mad_Son is saying the idea is this:

The important premise is we are predicting something that changes, but is not random.

Given that the pattern of data is not random, data already gathered can help you make more accurate (not 100% accurate, just MORE accurate) predictions about the future.

So, we just look at what we've gotten out of Pete so far... let's make it simple and not even use stats, just grades.

2014 Offensive Grade: C-
2014 Defensive Grade: B+

2015: Offensive Grade: D
2015 Defensive Grade: A-

What are the grades for 2016 likely to be?

And then, even more than that... Given our prior knowledge, what new information would we view as satisfactory evidence that a new pattern was emerging?

And you're comfortable that 27 observations of a dynamic portfolio of 85 units (most of which Pete had no choice to include or not) is a large enough sample from which to draw conclusions? Askin for a fren

I'm comfortable doing the fucking analysis, I'll tell you that.

And your bit about the 85 "units" not of his choosing is so fucking retarded I don't even know what to do.

Even though I'm in a wheelchair I'm not going to cripple fight some stats retard.

 

[doogville]

Rutgers didn't really sell out to stop the run. They were playing with 2 safeties back.

UW lineman just straight whiffed on some blocks (or weren't in sync with each other). It's concerning, but also the type of shit that can be cleaned up quick.

Either way it will be interesting

 

[Gladstone]

Rutgers didn't really sell out to stop the run. They were playing with 2 safeties back.

UW lineman just straight whiffed on some blocks (or weren't in sync with each other). It's concerning, but also the type of shit that can be cleaned up quick.

Either way it will be interesting

There were plays were all five OL just whiffed. The safeties also would read run based on the formations as well. You're right, they didn't stack the box that much. We just telegraphed everything like the pedestrian, unimaginative fucks we are.

 

[RoadDawg55]

I'm late to the thread.

On hype: agree with those that don't give a fuck. As Dennis said, it's all bullshit. The only pathetically true part about this hype is if Petersen goes 8-4 this season, the AD will hype him up for getting us all the way to #6 (or whatever) because it's our highest ranking in 15 years.

Running game: Not really worried. Gaskin had a great season last year and there is no reason the OL will be worse. It's one game.

Browning: He's good, not great. I don't love him but he's good enough to win.

If you haven't realized that some of Petersen/Smith's hard headed fuckery isn't going away, I don't know what to tell you. Hopefully we can win in spite of that.

 

[Gladstone]

there is no reason the OL will be worse.

Coaching.

 

[DongJames]

Mad Son puts a lot of time into his Ramblings. We should all thank him for his service.
Read the full story here

I cannot in good conscience thank Mad Dog for his service.

 

[TurdBomber]

Mad Dog TSIO = Too Soon. Drink heavily and relax 'til game #4. Utterly meaningless games 'til then.

 

[Tequilla]

Rutgers didn't really sell out to stop the run. They were playing with 2 safeties back.

UW lineman just straight whiffed on some blocks (or weren't in sync with each other). It's concerning, but also the type of shit that can be cleaned up quick.

Either way it will be interesting

There were numerous snaps where Rutgers had all 11 defenders within 8-10 yards of the LOS.

When you are hitting as many bombs as we did, that tells you that the safeties are out of position to defend those and that's usually driven by their focus being on slowing down the run game.

 

[doogsinparadise]

Puppy wanted Sark to have a 6th year. People forget that.

Uh, pup wanted him gone before he ever stepped on field dipshit.

Liar. You openly campaigned for his 6th year.

J that aint close to true. I was here bashing Sark in 2013. I bashed Sark on Dawgman from day 1, whic h is why I got banned. Now here, I remember why I dont come here...but will as I like to drag your pussy through the mud.

Now if your going to lie about Pup wanting Sark, find proof. I was the original on the topic Ty's 0-12 team Sark took over was better than Sark's team when he left. Now I see your brain firing up a memory , which are few and far between

No one was harder on Sark than puppy was.

Wow, some actually follow.

Biggest whoosh ever on this board?

 

[doogsinparadise]

I feel like a broken record. I know Rutgers was keying on the run and giving us the pass. That doesn't change that I didn't see the results I needed to see that something had changed. Null hypothesis is that things are the same until shown otherwise.

THIS!

The other night I was Dilaudid-sext-ranting to Coker about Bayesian analysis and why you have to take all years of Petersen as meaningful prices.

He deserves a medal.

That should be 'priors' not 'prices'. Fucking AutoCorrect.

It's hard.

But yeah, as my class poaster friend @Mad_Son is saying the idea is this:

The important premise is we are predicting something that changes, but is not random.

Given that the pattern of data is not random, data already gathered can help you make more accurate (not 100% accurate, just MORE accurate) predictions about the future.

So, we just look at what we've gotten out of Pete so far... let's make it simple and not even use stats, just grades.

2014 Offensive Grade: C-
2014 Defensive Grade: B+

2015: Offensive Grade: D
2015 Defensive Grade: A-

What are the grades for 2016 likely to be?

And then, even more than that... Given our prior knowledge, what new information would we view as satisfactory evidence that a new pattern was emerging?

And you're comfortable that 27 observations of a dynamic portfolio of 85 units (most of which Pete had no choice to include or not) is a large enough sample from which to draw conclusions? Askin for a fren

Leave!

 

[Mad_Son]

Mad Dog TSIO = Too Soon. Drink heavily and relax 'til game #4. Utterly meaningless games 'til then.

TSIO is 100% not the point...

 

[RoadDawg55]

Mad Dog TSIO = Too Soon. Drink heavily and relax 'til game #4. Utterly meaningless games 'til then.

TSIO is 100% not the point...

I'm a true nega dawg and fully believe we suck until proven otherwise, but I'm not dumb enough to complain about the beat down we put on Rutgers. The team dos what they had to do. We'll find out after the Arizona and Stanford games.

 

[TurdBomber]

Rutgers didn't really sell out to stop the run. They were playing with 2 safeties back.

UW lineman just straight whiffed on some blocks (or weren't in sync with each other). It's concerning, but also the type of shit that can be cleaned up quick.

Either way it will be interesting

There were numerous snaps where Rutgers had all 11 defenders within 8-10 yards of the LOS.

When you are hitting as many bombs as we did, that tells you that the safeties are out of position to defend those and that's usually driven by their focus being on slowing down the run game.

THIS.
It was obvious as fuck Rutgers chief concern was defending the run game all day long. The passing game worked good enough, but there is still too much fuckery as Roady aptly points out. Could we just retire the toss sweep to McClatcher and the zero net yard fucking bubble screens? We should all expect a double-reverse flea-flicker that goes for 5 yards and injures a key player in game 2 or 3. Smiff is hard as a rock just thinking about it.
Despite the fuckery, UW will win at least 9, because the O has improved enough to execute when they need to.

 

[TurdBomber]

Mad Dog TSIO = Too Soon. Drink heavily and relax 'til game #4. Utterly meaningless games 'til then.

TSIO is 100% not the point...

That declaration has been the entire point of following UW football for 15 years. The over-under on which weekend to make that declaration and start drinking bleach has been the most interesting and engaging point of following UW football since Tui.

We remain that way until we aren't.

 

[puppylove_sugarsteel]

Mad Dog TSIO = Too Soon. Drink heavily and relax 'til game #4. Utterly meaningless games 'til then.

TSIO is 100% not the point...

I'm a true nega dawg and fully believe we suck until proven otherwise, but I'm not dumb enough to complain about the beat down we put on Rutgers. The team dos what they had to do. We'll find out after the Arizona and Stanford games.

Its Peter's 3rd year. If he goes 9-4 thats a big improvement. A coach shouldnt be judged till his 4th-5th year. Especially a complete overhaul of a program. Been saying for 2 years, anything that happens this year is a bonus and year ahead of schedule.

Enjoy the rebuilding process. Enjoy the games, the indibidual play. If Pete wins north he'll be consensus pac12 coach of year. And deservedly so.

 

[TierbsHsotBoobs]

Mad Dog TSIO = Too Soon. Drink heavily and relax 'til game #4. Utterly meaningless games 'til then.

TSIO is 100% not the point...

I'm a true nega dawg and fully believe we suck until proven otherwise, but I'm not dumb enough to complain about the beat down we put on Rutgers. The team dos what they had to do. We'll find out after the Arizona and Stanford games.

Its Peter's 3rd year. If he goes 9-4 thats a big improvement. A coach shouldnt be judged till his 4th-5th year. Especially a complete overhaul of a program. Been saying for 2 years, anything that happens this year is a bonus and year ahead of schedule.

Enjoy the rebuilding process. Enjoy the games, the indibidual play. If Pete wins north he'll be consensus pac12 coach of year. And deservedly so.

Going from 4-5 to 5-4 is a big improvement. Everybody says so.