Mad Son's Ramblings: Year Three is Prove-It Time for Petersen

[Mad_Son]

I don't mind metrics, but Coach Effect has to be the most tenuous. Using it is at least two, probably three steps of inference down the chain, based on Ecklunds view of a group of kids' hips in high school 2-4 years prior.

It works on a population level. Obviously since classes are bigger and smaller. Some kids are sleepers and other are busts. Fundamentally I don't think recruiting rankings are invalid for gauging gross talent levels.

 

[TierbsHsotBoobs]

coaching effect is a stupid metric and you guys only use it cause it makes petersen look bad and ignore all the ones that make him look fine. bash petersen all you want for the '14 AZ game, the two minute (lol) drill against oregon, the 2nd half vs ASU, etc. i don't give a fuck. i'll just be over here scared of that coach that has a Apple cup record of 1-3 and been outscored by an average of 15 points a game.

Here's the only metric that matters:

8-10

 

[CuntWaffle]

Also take slight issue with your point about the hype being negative. The hype can only be a good thing IMO, light shines ever brighter if we* fall short. Questions will be asked etc.

This is beyond stupid. The right answer is the hype is meaningless. The coaches and players have done nothing to ask for the hype, nor have they done anything to deserve it.

"But the hype can be a good thing, 'cause if they underperform that (unearned) hype, questions will be asked." Give me a fucking break.

God forbid we ever have standards.

I don't know why they even bother to keep score.

You are the ring leader when it comes to saying pre season polls and rankings are bullshit.

If Petersen wins only 8 (or even 9) games this season i am pretty sure most everyone (except for PLSS maybe) will be door.ass.out with Pete. It won't be because he failed to live up to the bullshit media hype. It will be because he failed to have a great season with a talented roster.

All people are saying is Petersen hasn't done shit to ask for his team to be hyped up (He's actually had been swatting down the hype whenever asked about it because he knows he hasn't done anything to this point to earn it). Not sure why this is so hard to understand.

The hype is irrelevant. Win or LEAVE!

 

[FremontTroll]

Coach effect does not equal game management.

You'd have to be regularly punting on third down to cost your team three wins in one season via game management.

Game management is wrapped up in there. It is a much larger term that encompasses nearly every aspect of the team, as I tried to acknowledge. I maybe wasn't as explicit in mentioning the offense there as I had intended to be. Basically those are the areas where we are under-performing and it is costing us games.

All coach effect does is compare recruiting rankings to results.

So, assuming the recruiting rankings are unbiased, coach effect attempts to measure every single aspect of coaching from identifying underrated talent to development to roster management to motivation to team-building to game management, etc.

Game management is the most visible aspect of coaching but also the most overrated. A lot of awful fourth down decision makers have won Super Bowls and crystal footballs.

Yes, so my logic is that if everything other than game mangement and the offense is good then those are what is costing us three games as per CFBMCE. Realistically if we are overachieving in say defense and off-season stuff then those two bad aspects are potentially costing us more than three wins. I acknowledged I did a poor job of showing game management and offense were linked concepts in the context of CFBMCE. I shouldn't have made offense a separate paragraph or I should have separated out game management into the offense paragraph.

Your logic is flawed.

Once again- a monkey picking plays using a random play generator wouldn't cost his team three full wins in a season. It's ludicrous

Take CP's most derided decision - to hand off to Cooper. An overly generous estimation would be that UW's win probability decreased from 99.5% to 95%.

In other terms that decision, as fucktarded as it was, cost UW less than .05 wins in expectation.

 

[TierbsHsotBoobs]

Coach effect does not equal game management.

You'd have to be regularly punting on third down to cost your team three wins in one season via game management.

Game management is wrapped up in there. It is a much larger term that encompasses nearly every aspect of the team, as I tried to acknowledge. I maybe wasn't as explicit in mentioning the offense there as I had intended to be. Basically those are the areas where we are under-performing and it is costing us games.

All coach effect does is compare recruiting rankings to results.

So, assuming the recruiting rankings are unbiased, coach effect attempts to measure every single aspect of coaching from identifying underrated talent to development to roster management to motivation to team-building to game management, etc.

Game management is the most visible aspect of coaching but also the most overrated. A lot of awful fourth down decision makers have won Super Bowls and crystal footballs.

Yes, so my logic is that if everything other than game mangement and the offense is good then those are what is costing us three games as per CFBMCE. Realistically if we are overachieving in say defense and off-season stuff then those two bad aspects are potentially costing us more than three wins. I acknowledged I did a poor job of showing game management and offense were linked concepts in the context of CFBMCE. I shouldn't have made offense a separate paragraph or I should have separated out game management into the offense paragraph.

Your logic is flawed.

Once again- a monkey picking plays using a random play generator wouldn't cost his team three full wins in a season. It's ludicrous

Take CP's most derided decision - to hand off to Cooper. An overly generous estimation would be that UW's win probability decreased from 99.5% to 95%.

In other terms that decision, as fucktarded as it was, cost UW less than .05 wins in expectation.

The pussy punt against Oregon was much worse.

 

[FremontTroll]

Coach effect does not equal game management.

You'd have to be regularly punting on third down to cost your team three wins in one season via game management.

Game management is wrapped up in there. It is a much larger term that encompasses nearly every aspect of the team, as I tried to acknowledge. I maybe wasn't as explicit in mentioning the offense there as I had intended to be. Basically those are the areas where we are under-performing and it is costing us games.

All coach effect does is compare recruiting rankings to results.

So, assuming the recruiting rankings are unbiased, coach effect attempts to measure every single aspect of coaching from identifying underrated talent to development to roster management to motivation to team-building to game management, etc.

Game management is the most visible aspect of coaching but also the most overrated. A lot of awful fourth down decision makers have won Super Bowls and crystal footballs.

Yes, so my logic is that if everything other than game mangement and the offense is good then those are what is costing us three games as per CFBMCE. Realistically if we are overachieving in say defense and off-season stuff then those two bad aspects are potentially costing us more than three wins. I acknowledged I did a poor job of showing game management and offense were linked concepts in the context of CFBMCE. I shouldn't have made offense a separate paragraph or I should have separated out game management into the offense paragraph.

Your logic is flawed.

Once again- a monkey picking plays using a random play generator wouldn't cost his team three full wins in a season. It's ludicrous

Take CP's most derided decision - to hand off to Cooper. An overly generous estimation would be that UW's win probability decreased from 99.5% to 95%.

In other terms that decision, as fucktarded as it was, cost UW less than .05 wins in expectation.

The pussy punt against Oregon was much worse.

Yeah probably.

Also as far as the design of the offense goes there is no way to accurately quantify any negative or positive coordinator effect IMO. There is no way to accurately control for all other variables as Mad_Son wants to do. Bartoo does have a coordinator effect ranking though so I guess you could try starting there instead of with the broader coach effect.

 

[Dennis_DeYoung]

Why worry about the hype? Either we'll live up to it or we won't. If we do, it will help us build recruiting momentum. If not, it won't make any difference.

I am sick of unrealized potential. That's what I don't like. Let's fucking live up to our potential as a team.

Hype? Who fucking cares? That's sports radio bullshit. It's all fucking hype. You know what's not hype? Orphan's dying of starvation, women getting raped as instruments of war, people dying slow deaths of diseases alone. That's real shit. Literally everything to do with college football is bullshit. It's all just us fucking around.

Any taking it seriously makes you a fucking moron in my book. So, I am not fucking worried that ESPN is talking about us. It's all bullshit, who cares? I'll just enjoy it on whatever level.

What I *am* sick of, though, is our fucking fag ass Doog fans that want not to be disappointed so much that they scorn top ratings and accolades.

Who gives a fucking shit?

What I care about is wins. Win or GTFO. Care about wins or GTFO.

 

[Gladstone]

Win. Period. Anything else after fifteen years of wandering the desert is a pretty tough sell.

 

[Mad_Son]

Coach effect does not equal game management.

You'd have to be regularly punting on third down to cost your team three wins in one season via game management.

Game management is wrapped up in there. It is a much larger term that encompasses nearly every aspect of the team, as I tried to acknowledge. I maybe wasn't as explicit in mentioning the offense there as I had intended to be. Basically those are the areas where we are under-performing and it is costing us games.

All coach effect does is compare recruiting rankings to results.

So, assuming the recruiting rankings are unbiased, coach effect attempts to measure every single aspect of coaching from identifying underrated talent to development to roster management to motivation to team-building to game management, etc.

Game management is the most visible aspect of coaching but also the most overrated. A lot of awful fourth down decision makers have won Super Bowls and crystal footballs.

Yes, so my logic is that if everything other than game mangement and the offense is good then those are what is costing us three games as per CFBMCE. Realistically if we are overachieving in say defense and off-season stuff then those two bad aspects are potentially costing us more than three wins. I acknowledged I did a poor job of showing game management and offense were linked concepts in the context of CFBMCE. I shouldn't have made offense a separate paragraph or I should have separated out game management into the offense paragraph.

Your logic is flawed.

Once again- a monkey picking plays using a random play generator wouldn't cost his team three full wins in a season. It's ludicrous

Take CP's most derided decision - to hand off to Cooper. An overly generous estimation would be that UW's win probability decreased from 99.5% to 95%.

In other terms that decision, as fucktarded as it was, cost UW less than .05 wins in expectation.

The pussy punt against Oregon was much worse.

Yeah probably.

Also as far as the design of the offense goes there is no way to accurately quantify any negative or positive coordinator effect IMO. There is no way to accurately control for all other variables as Mad_Son wants to do. Bartoo does have a coordinator effect ranking though so I guess you could try starting there instead of with the broader coach effect.

Petersen is responsible for the coordinators. That is part of the coach effect.

Coach effect does not equal game management.

You'd have to be regularly punting on third down to cost your team three wins in one season via game management.

Game management is wrapped up in there. It is a much larger term that encompasses nearly every aspect of the team, as I tried to acknowledge. I maybe wasn't as explicit in mentioning the offense there as I had intended to be. Basically those are the areas where we are under-performing and it is costing us games.

All coach effect does is compare recruiting rankings to results.

So, assuming the recruiting rankings are unbiased, coach effect attempts to measure every single aspect of coaching from identifying underrated talent to development to roster management to motivation to team-building to game management, etc.

Game management is the most visible aspect of coaching but also the most overrated. A lot of awful fourth down decision makers have won Super Bowls and crystal footballs.

Yes, so my logic is that if everything other than game mangement and the offense is good then those are what is costing us three games as per CFBMCE. Realistically if we are overachieving in say defense and off-season stuff then those two bad aspects are potentially costing us more than three wins. I acknowledged I did a poor job of showing game management and offense were linked concepts in the context of CFBMCE. I shouldn't have made offense a separate paragraph or I should have separated out game management into the offense paragraph.

Your logic is flawed.

Once again- a monkey picking plays using a random play generator wouldn't cost his team three full wins in a season. It's ludicrous

Take CP's most derided decision - to hand off to Cooper. An overly generous estimation would be that UW's win probability decreased from 99.5% to 95%.

In other terms that decision, as fucktarded as it was, cost UW less than .05 wins in expectation.

The pussy punt against Oregon was much worse.

Yeah probably.

Also as far as the design of the offense goes there is no way to accurately quantify any negative or positive coordinator effect IMO. There is no way to accurately control for all other variables as Mad_Son wants to do. Bartoo does have a coordinator effect ranking though so I guess you could try starting there instead of with the broader coach effect.

So this is an article about Petersen because everything is on the head coach. It was like trying to blame Kent Baer for Willingham's problems. If Smith is a failure (which Bartoo gives him a C+, adjusted to D when compensated for talent) then that is Petersen's fault for having him. The over all coach effect should be the sum total of all aspects of the program, which it is in effect once you normalize for talent.

I am not sure why you don't think play calling matters and that running random plays would not have a detriment on a team... When we start playing with house money I'll ask Petersen to try that as an experiment.

 

[Mad_Son]

Also when you start typing on your phone and it saves a draft and then you come to your computer to respond that last post is apparently the outcome...

 

[Tequilla]

1) Stats/Data is great at trying to frame the unobservable or when needed to isolate information ... where I get bent out of shape is when trying to get data to explain information that you can see with your own eyes

2) when it comes to evaluating what Pete has done the first two years, you don't need some kind of advanced data to back up any conclusions ... using the advanced data if anything makes you sound less educated than not

 

[TierbsHsotBoobs]

1) Stats/Data is great at trying to frame the unobservable or when needed to isolate information ... where I get bent out of shape is when trying to get data to explain information that you can see with your own eyes

2) when it comes to evaluating what Pete has done the first two years, you don't need some kind of advanced data to back up any conclusions ... using the advanced data if anything makes you sound less educated than not

This post actually does not suck.

We all see Peterman underachieving, just look at his record.

 

[Tequilla]

The other thing about the article is that the initial perception of the article is this bias that Pete isn't the guy and looking for evidence that confirms your conclusion ...

There is NOTHING out of the first (or really first 3) games of the season that will confirm or not. At best we will know the answer if he isn't by the bye or have an idea that he is by the end of November.

 

[Mad_Son]

The other thing about the article is that the initial perception of the article is this bias that Pete isn't the guy and looking for evidence that confirms your conclusion ...

There is NOTHING out of the first (or really first 3) games of the season that will confirm or not. At best we will know the answer if he isn't by the bye or have an idea that he is by the end of November.

In response to your prior post, I am glad you clearly see Petersen is underachieving, I don't think everyone realizes that. I don't think mentioning coach effect was superfluous.

So I actually went into the season optimistic that he was the guy. The top thing I look for in a first game of the season is how the lines play. Things go weird on the first game but I expect to see a good team control the lines. Sure, as the season goes on they will assuredly improve (as will everyone across the country) but I want to see an indication that this is a team that can run the ball. I already mentioned that maybe we schemed the way we did because it was the first game and we were taking the path of least resistance. The thing is I haven't seen any improvement. Maybe there is change but I haven't seen it.

I guess a way to talk about this in the way you want to is: what is your null hypothesis? For any given team, do you assume they have gone from a 7-6 team to a conference champion or do you assume they are still a 7-6 team?

I have shown that Petersen has been deficient, (for two primary reasons I identified) as the head coach at UW, and that there has been little indication that there has been any improvement. The possibility that it is too early to tell was included because it is the beginning of the season, but everything I mentioned about judgement is that it occurs based on the end of season win total...

 

[Tequilla]

To say that a coach lost 3 games in a season is high end and better be supported with CLEAR examples of how that was the case. Taking Stanford out of the equation, that leaves 5 games from which to pin 3 losses directly on Pete (Boise, Cal, Oregon, Utah, ASU) ...

Your premise of wanting to see good line play is based on the eye of the beholder ...

If you just look at the stats you would say the OL and running game was brutal and hopeless ... if you watched the game/tape it becomes very clear that Rutgers sold out to stop the run and force Browning to beat them deep ... also looking at the OL play requires looking at how the protection was and in the case of a vertical passing game, something had to be going right there

With all due respect, the right decision on Saturday was to take what Rutgers was giving us and it was even better to see that we were capable of hitting the big play when teams sell out to stop the run.

I know that the narrative with Smith is that he throws too much for the liking on this board. Smith surely has much to prove as the year progresses. I'd argue though that there was a lot more done right on Saturday with regards to play calling than not.

 

[GrundleStiltzkin]

Win. Period. Anything else after fifteen years of wandering the desert is a pretty tough sell.

 

[CokeGreaterThanPepsi]

Why worry about the hype? Either we'll live up to it or we won't. If we do, it will help us build recruiting momentum. If not, it won't make any difference.

I am sick of unrealized potential. That's what I don't like. Let's fucking live up to our potential as a team.

Hype? Who fucking cares? That's sports radio bullshit. It's all fucking hype. You know what's not hype? Orphan's dying of starvation, women getting raped as instruments of war, people dying slow deaths of diseases alone. That's real shit. Literally everything to do with college football is bullshit. It's all just us fucking around.

Any taking it seriously makes you a fucking moron in my book. So, I am not fucking worried that ESPN is talking about us. It's all bullshit, who cares? I'll just enjoy it on whatever level.

What I *am* sick of, though, is our fucking fag ass Doog fans that want not to be disappointed so much that they scorn top ratings and accolades.

Who gives a fucking shit?

What I care about is wins. Win or GTFO. Care about wins or GTFO.

A/S/L?

 

[Dennis_DeYoung]

Why worry about the hype? Either we'll live up to it or we won't. If we do, it will help us build recruiting momentum. If not, it won't make any difference.

I am sick of unrealized potential. That's what I don't like. Let's fucking live up to our potential as a team.

Hype? Who fucking cares? That's sports radio bullshit. It's all fucking hype. You know what's not hype? Orphan's dying of starvation, women getting raped as instruments of war, people dying slow deaths of diseases alone. That's real shit. Literally everything to do with college football is bullshit. It's all just us fucking around.

Any taking it seriously makes you a fucking moron in my book. So, I am not fucking worried that ESPN is talking about us. It's all bullshit, who cares? I'll just enjoy it on whatever level.

What I *am* sick of, though, is our fucking fag ass Doog fans that want not to be disappointed so much that they scorn top ratings and accolades.

Who gives a fucking shit?

What I care about is wins. Win or GTFO. Care about wins or GTFO.

A/S/L?

14/F/Latvia

 

[CokeGreaterThanPepsi]

Why worry about the hype? Either we'll live up to it or we won't. If we do, it will help us build recruiting momentum. If not, it won't make any difference.

I am sick of unrealized potential. That's what I don't like. Let's fucking live up to our potential as a team.

Hype? Who fucking cares? That's sports radio bullshit. It's all fucking hype. You know what's not hype? Orphan's dying of starvation, women getting raped as instruments of war, people dying slow deaths of diseases alone. That's real shit. Literally everything to do with college football is bullshit. It's all just us fucking around.

Any taking it seriously makes you a fucking moron in my book. So, I am not fucking worried that ESPN is talking about us. It's all bullshit, who cares? I'll just enjoy it on whatever level.

What I *am* sick of, though, is our fucking fag ass Doog fans that want not to be disappointed so much that they scorn top ratings and accolades.

Who gives a fucking shit?

What I care about is wins. Win or GTFO. Care about wins or GTFO.

A/S/L?

14/F/Latvia

meh, pass.

 

[Mad_Son]

I feel like a broken record. I know Rutgers was keying on the run and giving us the pass. That doesn't change that I didn't see the results I needed to see that something had changed. Null hypothesis is that things are the same until shown otherwise.