For real.
My basic rule of thumb is that if a recruit commits to what is currently considered a better program than us (Bama, SC, Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State etc) it's over for us when they commit there. Obviously there are exceptions (hi Tuli), but we know Clemson isn't going to be incompetent with Joe like SC is.
But Ngata's the one recruit I feel differently about. I never bought into the "we have every advantage for him" line, Clemson has two massive ones - recent natty and first round WR's on top of first round WR's. Those things are huge.
But they won't change between here and signing day. They are static advantages.
UW's advantages OTOH are dynamic.
Who is he going to talk to more between now and signing day, UW players or Clemson players? UW
Who is he going to spend more time with between now and signing day, UW players or Clemson players? UW
Who is he going to talk to more in person between now and signing day, UW coaches or Clemson coaches? UW
Where will he spend more time between now and signing day, Montlake or Death Valley (the lesser)? Montlake
Whose games will he see more of between now and signing day, UW or Clemson? We don't know but there's a real shot it's UW
Whose games will he attend more between now and signing day, UW or Clemson? Almost certainly UW
Yes, UW had all of these advantages last year and he still committed to Clemson. He's probably going to Clemson. But Ngata's in the rare position where he's still likely to be exposed to a ton of pro UW influence over the next four months. He's also in the rare spot where a) UW doesn't need someone at his position we are just holding a spot for him because he's special b) we aren't going to quit recruiting him because he committed elsewhere. UW's advantages are strongest during the football season, and 81% of the time between now and signing day is football season.
Now if UW takes another WR commit you can discard all this . But if we? don't (and we shouldn't), I think we still make a strong push for Ngata.
As a crazed bi-polar teen boy stocking maniac once said, it's not over til they sign.
Don't change @SpiritHorse's name to Elmer just yet.
