Number of recruits of each star rank and percentage drafted from the 2020 NFL draft and the 247 composite:
Five-star: 19/30 (62.3%)
Four-star: 73/311 (23.5%)
Three-star: 111/1,831 (6%)
Two-Star: 32/1,949 (1.6%)
Not wanting four stars and attempting to convince yourself otherwise is stupid.
Not all kids are properly rated, NFL draft is partially potential, etc etc - the team with a higher recruiting rank wins more often and has a higher floor and ceiling, those are indisputable facts that no development magic overcomes.
Patrick Mahomes (398th overall) was 50 spots away from being a four-star, once again demonstrating there needs to be a three-star cutoff much earlier so it means something. Travis Kelce was a recruit 14 years ago, two years before 247 existed. Cooper Kupp is an outlier from Yakima. His Rams teammate and fellow face-on-graphic Aaron Donald was the 353rd ranked recruit, a fart away from 4-star status. The LA Rams have seven five-stars, 13% of their roster.
Nobody doesn’t want 4 stars. I want coaches smart and good enough at evaluating to know a guy likely sucks, regardless of ranking. I want coaches smart enough to not question why 20 other schools haven’t offered a low 3 star that they think can play. That’s it.
Have the balls to look at Spiker and know he’s a slow and a pussy. Have the balls to take Sidney Jones. We wouldn’t have 3 years later.
I would also like coaches that are able to do something consistently that no one else in the world has been able to.[/b]
Predict the athletic future of 17 year old boys with 75% accuracy. While continuing to fulfill all other obligations of their job. Some people think that’s easier to do when the 17 year olds are the ones who everyone thinks have that potential.
Sometimes three stars don’t have offers for legit reasons, like Herbert having a handful of starts since he broke his leg and never showed up to a camp. Or Mariota not being the starting QB at his high school before he committing to Oregon. Maybe they’re undersized, new to the sport, or borderline on qualifying. But usually it’s because they aren’t good enough, aren’t consistent, have questionable athleticism, or have other issues.
This sounds like Oregon fans that pine for the days of when all you needed to lose to Ohio State in the championship game was the Chip Kelly system. Along with an inefficient scouting system changed by digital video and communication, and signing 38 4-stars and five 5-stars in the preceding four years. They saw the potential in Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner that few others saw.
They did whiff on some recruits. I think your theory of them not having the balls to determine who was slow and a pussy was the main cause. I’ll be sure to forward that on to the AD, I want to make sure they tested Lanning’s balls for skill in scouting WR speed.
