Wilner on other Power 5s poaching the west

He didn't list who the 8 players deciding on signing day were but Penis Swell chose Oregon and nearly all the rest chose USC. So the article is slightly melodramatic.

That being said I've been sounding the alarm bells on this for years. We should never cheer when some CA kid chooses Oklahoma or Notre Dame over USC or UCLA.

California, and the West in general, has greater competition for fewer elite recruits than the Southeast or Texas. Then if the outflows are greater than the inflows from outside the region it makes the conference even weaker.

Also every kid USC misses out on means more competition for the next kid down the line since we almost never go outside the region.

To some extent this is all mitigated by USC, Stanford, and even Oregon going national but ultimately if UW is going to win a National Championship we don't just need our own program to recruit at an elite level- we need the conference as a whole to be strong as well.
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Kids are traveling between regions more than ever before as are families. They are less tied to the "hometown" than ever before. Recruiting reflects this. Either become a national brand or watch as your geographic footprint gets picked apart by those who are.
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I know this is sort of the CW (the DM guys said five years ago the notion of "the fence" was obsolete because Twitter), I'm just not sure there's any hard evidence to back it up.

I'm with Coker and DDY that the fence is always priority one.
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Its not twitter its demographics. Jobs and families move more now(if you want I could pull actual research etc. There's plenty out there.) If a kid grew up in Wa and such Id consider the fence a real thing. If he moved here at 14 after stops at two other locations along the way its much less a factor even if hes considered a "Washington" recruit.
 
He didn't list who the 8 players deciding on signing day were but Penis Swell chose Oregon and nearly all the rest chose USC. So the article is slightly melodramatic.

That being said I've been sounding the alarm bells on this for years. We should never cheer when some CA kid chooses Oklahoma or Notre Dame over USC or UCLA.

California, and the West in general, has greater competition for fewer elite recruits than the Southeast or Texas. Then if the outflows are greater than the inflows from outside the region it makes the conference even weaker.

Also every kid USC misses out on means more competition for the next kid down the line since we almost never go outside the region.

To some extent this is all mitigated by USC, Stanford, and even Oregon going national but ultimately if UW is going to win a National Championship we don't just need our own program to recruit at an elite level- we need the conference as a whole to be strong as well.
Click to expand...

Kids are traveling between regions more than ever before as are families. They are less tied to the "hometown" than ever before. Recruiting reflects this. Either become a national brand or watch as your geographic footprint gets picked apart by those who are.
Click to expand...

I know this is sort of the CW (the DM guys said five years ago the notion of "the fence" was obsolete because Twitter), I'm just not sure there's any hard evidence to back it up.

I'm with Coker and DDY that the fence is always priority one.
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Its not twitter its demographics. Jobs and families move more now(if you want I could pull actual research etc. There's plenty out there.) If a kid grew up in Wa and such Id consider the fence a real thing. If he moved here at 14 after stops at two other locations along the way its much less a factor even if hes considered a "Washington" recruit.
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I agree with all this, I’m just not sure that the percentages are massively different than they used to be, especially not with kids who are most likely to be athletes.
 
I think this article is a little misleading. It starts with 2011 (which I'm assuming is the furthest back the composite rankings go) so it makes the trend look alarming - from one lost kid to six in only six years! But I think 2011 is the outlier. We?ve lost kids to the Miamis and Oklahomas as long as I've followed recruiting. Hell we? lost Luke Huard to UNC and Jared Jones to FSU and Carlos Pierre Antoine to ND the very first year I bought a recruiting publication, and that was just from in the state of Washington.

If you take the average of this sample it's less alarming: The six year average is 6.71. This year we lost six. Last year we lost seven. So we're basically right in line with the sample.

@FremontTroll's poont is spot on - the Pac loosing these kids almost never helps UW. Stanford, SC and Oregon bringing in kids from outside the footprint almost always helps UW. Kids leaving is an issue.

I'm just not convinced it's a bigger issue than it's ever been.
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That's a nice narrative, but I do think it is a bigger issue than it used to be.

I looked at the data from my '08-'16 data set and there does appear to be a trend towards a larger percentage of the "Blue Chip" recruits from the Pac-12 recruiting footprint heading East to school.

This includes recruits from AZ, CO, HI, UT, CA, OR, WA, ID, and NV. Four and five star recruits only. I rated them as "poached" if they went to a school from outside the region.

erwy8ilzg70g.jpg

That is 99 "Blue Chip" recruits over nine recruiting cycles, or 11 per cycle.

Notre Dame has accounted for a quarter of those:

18f7asynklim.jpg

 
I think this article is a little misleading. It starts with 2011 (which I'm assuming is the furthest back the composite rankings go) so it makes the trend look alarming - from one lost kid to six in only six years! But I think 2011 is the outlier. We?ve lost kids to the Miamis and Oklahomas as long as I've followed recruiting. Hell we? lost Luke Huard to UNC and Jared Jones to FSU and Carlos Pierre Antoine to ND the very first year I bought a recruiting publication, and that was just from in the state of Washington.

If you take the average of this sample it's less alarming: The six year average is 6.71. This year we lost six. Last year we lost seven. So we're basically right in line with the sample.

@FremontTroll's poont is spot on - the Pac loosing these kids almost never helps UW. Stanford, SC and Oregon bringing in kids from outside the footprint almost always helps UW. Kids leaving is an issue.

I'm just not convinced it's a bigger issue than it's ever been.
Click to expand...

That's a nice narrative, but I do think it is a bigger issue than it used to be.

I looked at the data from my '08-'16 data set and there does appear to be a trend towards a larger percentage of the "Blue Chip" recruits from the Pac-12 recruiting footprint heading East to school.

This includes recruits from AZ, CO, HI, UT, CA, OR, WA, ID, and NV. Four and five star recruits only. I rated them as "poached" if they went to a school from outside the region.

View attachment 11535

That is 99 "Blue Chip" recruits over nine recruiting cycles, or 11 per cycle.

Notre Dame has accounted for a quarter of those:

View attachment 11536
Click to expand...

It wasn’t a narrative, it was pointing out that his data didn’t fit his conclusion.

Your data is far more comprehensive and alarming.
 
In addition to Twitter, I think that schools have just gotten a lot more efficient in their recruiting. Everyone has their shit together, everyone is organized, and they all realize that they need to exhaust as many resources as possible. Even just a decade ago, it would've been harder to keep track of every kid in the country, get his film, and try and get a hold of him. Now if you're Oklahoma, you can spend one afternoon DM'ing all the elite kids on the west coast, and gauge their interest. Most kids don't give a fuck about Oklahoma, but some might, and then you can start spending time/money going after them. In the past you would've just been shooting in the dark trying to recruit the west coast, now these schools can go after a few California kids every year without feeling like they are just throwing away their resources.
 
In addition to Twitter, I think that schools have just gotten a lot more efficient in their recruiting. Everyone has their shit together, everyone is organized, and they all realize that they need to exhaust as many resources as possible. Even just a decade ago, it would've been harder to keep track of every kid in the country, get his film, and try and get a hold of him. Now if you're Oklahoma, you can spend one afternoon DM'ing all the elite kids on the west coast, and gauge their interest. Most kids don't give a fuck about Oklahoma, but some might, and then you can start spending time/money going after them. In the past you would've just been shooting in the dark trying to recruit the west coast, now these schools can go after a few California kids every year without feeling like they are just throwing away their resources.
Click to expand...

In addition to Twitter, I think that schools have just gotten a lot more efficient in their recruiting. Everyone has their shit together, everyone is organized, and they all realize that they need to exhaust as many resources as possible. Even just a decade ago, it would've been harder to keep track of every kid in the country, get his film, and try and get a hold of him. Now if you're Oklahoma, you can spend one afternoon DM'ing all the elite kids on the west coast, and gauge their interest. Most kids don't give a fuck about Oklahoma, but some might, and then you can start spending time/money going after them. In the past you would've just been shooting in the dark trying to recruit the west coast, now these schools can go after a few California kids every year without feeling like they are just throwing away their resources.
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See also, UW in Texas
 
I think this article is a little misleading. It starts with 2011 (which I'm assuming is the furthest back the composite rankings go) so it makes the trend look alarming - from one lost kid to six in only six years! But I think 2011 is the outlier. We?ve lost kids to the Miamis and Oklahomas as long as I've followed recruiting. Hell we? lost Luke Huard to UNC and Jared Jones to FSU and Carlos Pierre Antoine to ND the very first year I bought a recruiting publication, and that was just from in the state of Washington.

If you take the average of this sample it's less alarming: The six year average is 6.71. This year we lost six. Last year we lost seven. So we're basically right in line with the sample.

@FremontTroll's poont is spot on - the Pac loosing these kids almost never helps UW. Stanford, SC and Oregon bringing in kids from outside the footprint almost always helps UW. Kids leaving is an issue.

I'm just not convinced it's a bigger issue than it's ever been.
Click to expand...

That's a nice narrative, but I do think it is a bigger issue than it used to be.

I looked at the data from my '08-'16 data set and there does appear to be a trend towards a larger percentage of the "Blue Chip" recruits from the Pac-12 recruiting footprint heading East to school.

This includes recruits from AZ, CO, HI, UT, CA, OR, WA, ID, and NV. Four and five star recruits only. I rated them as "poached" if they went to a school from outside the region.

View attachment 11535

That is 99 "Blue Chip" recruits over nine recruiting cycles, or 11 per cycle.

Notre Dame has accounted for a quarter of those:

View attachment 11536
Click to expand...

I had a big post about trends on west coast recruiting, but I'm kinda drunk and will resume it:

Nebraska won't get anyone good now without Donte Williams, Michigan sucks and got fucked this year on the west coast, Notre Dame got fucked this year outside of Jack Lamb and they can't compete with UW, so fuck them, Texas is happy recruiting at Texas, Miami is happy recruiting at Florida, and Tennessee is not a threat at all.

I'm only cocnerned about Oklahoma, who has serious momentum, Taggart at FSU, Bama and their poly kids, and if Clemson decides to make a serious run out west. Maybe Texas A&M and the barbers?

who gives a fuck if Virginia has half their class from Hawaii if they can't get anyone good at all
 
Whatever recruiting migrations ensure that OSU, Wazzu, Utah, and Colorado fight over the mountain west scrap heap until their eventual bannination...
 
I think this article is a little misleading. It starts with 2011 (which I'm assuming is the furthest back the composite rankings go) so it makes the trend look alarming - from one lost kid to six in only six years! But I think 2011 is the outlier. We?ve lost kids to the Miamis and Oklahomas as long as I've followed recruiting. Hell we? lost Luke Huard to UNC and Jared Jones to FSU and Carlos Pierre Antoine to ND the very first year I bought a recruiting publication, and that was just from in the state of Washington.

If you take the average of this sample it's less alarming: The six year average is 6.71. This year we lost six. Last year we lost seven. So we're basically right in line with the sample.

@FremontTroll's poont is spot on - the Pac loosing these kids almost never helps UW. Stanford, SC and Oregon bringing in kids from outside the footprint almost always helps UW. Kids leaving is an issue.

I'm just not convinced it's a bigger issue than it's ever been.
Click to expand...

That's a nice narrative, but I do think it is a bigger issue than it used to be.

I looked at the data from my '08-'16 data set and there does appear to be a trend towards a larger percentage of the "Blue Chip" recruits from the Pac-12 recruiting footprint heading East to school.

This includes recruits from AZ, CO, HI, UT, CA, OR, WA, ID, and NV. Four and five star recruits only. I rated them as "poached" if they went to a school from outside the region.

View attachment 11535

That is 99 "Blue Chip" recruits over nine recruiting cycles, or 11 per cycle.

Notre Dame has accounted for a quarter of those:

View attachment 11536
Click to expand...

It wasn’t a narrative, it was pointing out that his data didn’t fit his conclusion.

Your data is far more comprehensive and alarming.
Click to expand...

I didn’t mean that as snarky as it sounded. I actually agreed with what you wrote when I read it. Then I realized I had the data open on my desktop to confirm or challenge your hypothesis. I wasn’t thrilled about what I discovered.
 
He didn't list who the 8 players deciding on signing day were but Penis Swell chose Oregon and nearly all the rest chose USC. So the article is slightly melodramatic.

That being said I've been sounding the alarm bells on this for years. We should never cheer when some CA kid chooses Oklahoma or Notre Dame over USC or UCLA.

California, and the West in general, has greater competition for fewer elite recruits than the Southeast or Texas. Then if the outflows are greater than the inflows from outside the region it makes the conference even weaker.

Also every kid USC misses out on means more competition for the next kid down the line since we almost never go outside the region.

To some extent this is all mitigated by USC, Stanford, and even Oregon going national but ultimately if UW is going to win a National Championship we don't just need our own program to recruit at an elite level- we need the conference as a whole to be strong as well.
Click to expand...

Kids are traveling between regions more than ever before as are families. They are less tied to the "hometown" than ever before. Recruiting reflects this. Either become a national brand or watch as your geographic footprint gets picked apart by those who are.
Click to expand...

I know this is sort of the CW (the DM guys said five years ago the notion of "the fence" was obsolete because Twitter), I'm just not sure there's any hard evidence to back it up.

I'm with Coker and DDY that the fence is always priority one.
Click to expand...

The fence matters in the sense that it's much more LIKELY that that recruit is tuned into your message.

That being said, I do agree with the idea that the fence isn't quite as important as it used to be. But getting kids out of your region will always require more investment and be a greater challenge.

IMO, we're in a unique position that we're not completely screwed if we miss out in places in-state like we may have been 20 years ago when our recruiting base was largely the West Coast + Hawaii. The work/relocation component that @UW_Doog_Bot noted is definitely true.
 
Here are the high schools that have produced multiple (>1) Power 5 recruits (not just Blue Chips) that have gone to school outside of the Pac-12. For the purposes of this, Notre Dame is considered a "Power 5" independent, but BYU is not. Again, this covers 2008-2016.

sg5ka1j3bazh.jpg

Notre Dame (Sherman Oaks), Rancho Verde (Moreno Valley), and Bishop Gorman (Las Vegas) are the biggest offenders.
 
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Here are the high schools that have produced multiple (>1) Power 5 recruits (not just Blue Chips) that have gone to school outside of the Pac-12. For the purposes of this, Notre Dame is considered a "Power 5" independent, but BYU is not. Again, this covers 2008-2016.

View attachment 11541

Notre Dame (Sherman Oaks), Rancho Verde (Moreno Valley), and Bishop Gorman (Las Vegas) are the biggest offenders.
Click to expand...

Actually, that table above is wrong because it filtered out all of the single recruits that went to different conferences. Here is the master list of offenders that sent at least 3 recruits to Power 5 schools outside the Pac-12:

8s9dxjtfzyww.jpg

 
More geeking out.

This time I used the 24/7 Top 400 Composite recruits (includes 5 stars & 4stars and the top 3 stars on the borderline in most years) from 2012-2018. I broke it down by state and by which Conference the school they committed to is in.

Washington is losing almost no top guys to schools outside the Pac-12.

pv6o5jd1x0pj.jpg
 
More geeking out.

This time I used the 24/7 Top 400 Composite recruits (includes 5 stars & 4stars and the top 3 stars on the borderline in most years) from 2012-2018. I broke it down by state and by which Conference the school they committed to is in.

Washington is losing almost no top guys to schools outside the Pac-12.

View attachment 11553
Click to expand...

ACC = Treshaun, Indy = Keivarae, SEC = Skinny. Who was the MWC guy?

Guess Walker Williams wasn't top 400?
 
More geeking out.

This time I used the 24/7 Top 400 Composite recruits (includes 5 stars & 4stars and the top 3 stars on the borderline in most years) from 2012-2018. I broke it down by state and by which Conference the school they committed to is in.

Washington is losing almost no top guys to schools outside the Pac-12.

View attachment 11553
Click to expand...

ACC = Treshaun, Indy = Keivarae, SEC = Skinny. Who was the MWC guy?

Guess Walker Williams wasn't top 400?
Click to expand...

Walker Williams...no.

Brett Rypien was the MWC Guy.
 
He didn't list who the 8 players deciding on signing day were but Penis Swell chose Oregon and nearly all the rest chose USC. So the article is slightly melodramatic.

That being said I've been sounding the alarm bells on this for years. We should never cheer when some CA kid chooses Oklahoma or Notre Dame over USC or UCLA.

California, and the West in general, has greater competition for fewer elite recruits than the Southeast or Texas. Then if the outflows are greater than the inflows from outside the region it makes the conference even weaker.

Also every kid USC misses out on means more competition for the next kid down the line since we almost never go outside the region.

To some extent this is all mitigated by USC, Stanford, and even Oregon going national but ultimately if UW is going to win a National Championship we don't just need our own program to recruit at an elite level- we need the conference as a whole to be strong as well.
Click to expand...

Kids are traveling between regions more than ever before as are families. They are less tied to the "hometown" than ever before. Recruiting reflects this. Either become a national brand or watch as your geographic footprint gets picked apart by those who are.
Click to expand...

I know this is sort of the CW (the DM guys said five years ago the notion of "the fence" was obsolete because Twitter), I'm just not sure there's any hard evidence to back it up.

I'm with Coker and DDY that the fence is always priority one.
Click to expand...

The work/relocation component that @UW_Doog_Bot noted is definitely true.
Click to expand...

Agree with that, but I would question whether that is true for Fast Strategy or just for Slow.
 
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