Washington 2.0

In general, higher star average and more talent is obviously a good thing. The problem with the leveling up stuff is that a bunch of 3 star players we signed were really fucking good and NFL players. Some of the guys who were lowering our average rating were our best players. Jones, King, Rapp, BBK, Gaines, Sample, Dissly, etc.
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Yes, which is why we needed to level up.

That 2014 class was an abberation and we couldn't expect that hit rate (7 NFL draft picks, 4 in first two rounds) going forward unless we increased the talent level significantly.
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Not really an abberation for Pete because he's done it before (at Boise). I may be misremembering and I'm not sure on the exact year but one of his classes at Boise had like 6-7 draft picks and it was a really small class.
 
In general, higher star average and more talent is obviously a good thing. The problem with the leveling up stuff is that a bunch of 3 star players we signed were really fucking good and NFL players. Some of the guys who were lowering our average rating were our best players. Jones, King, Rapp, BBK, Gaines, Sample, Dissly, etc.
Click to expand...

Yes, which is why we needed to level up.

That 2014 class was an abberation and we couldn't expect that hit rate (7 NFL draft picks, 4 in first two rounds) going forward unless we increased the talent level significantly.
Click to expand...

Not really an abberation for Pete because he's done it before (at Boise). I may be misremembering and I'm not sure on the exact year but one of his classes at Boise had like 6-7 draft picks and it was a really small class.
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He may have done it once before and he may have been able to do it again in the future. But he wasn't going to be able to repeat it every year or even every 2-3 years.

Overall at Boise he averaged just under 3 draft picks per year (20 in 7 years) which is incredible. Prior to CP taking the reins you'd have to go back to 1979 to get to 20 kids drafted out of Boise.

But still. 8 picks per class was not going to be the norm going forward. Just look at 2015 and 2016- still good development of talent but nowhere near 2014 even though 2014 class was put together in two months.
 
Because I'm bored, here is the 2020 update to my original calculations.

I was slightly off with my original projection for 2019.

2019 Actual Starters[/b]
Starter avg - .8854
Offense avg - .8868
Defense avg - .8840

My original assumption had Bacellia relegated to the bench. Wishful thinking on my part. 9 starters had composite scores over .9000.

Vegas Bowl Starters[/b]
Starter avg - .8849
Offense avg - .8912
Defense avg - .8785

Offense went up with the additions of Bynum and Bainivalu, even with Bryant and Adams out. Defense went down in average due to Ulofoshio (0.7597), but he was our best LB by far. 11 starters had composite scores over .9000.

2020 Projected Starters[/b]
Starter avg - .8942
Offense avg - .8998
Defense avg - .8887

We continue to add talent, particularly at skill positions (Puka, Bynum, and Jones in place of the midgets). Defense is a little low due to Ulofoshio and R Bowman (.8333), but overall this rating equates to roughly the 335th best player in the country across the board. 12 starters had composite scores over .9000. FWIW, I have Sirmon starting at QB.

2021 Projected Starters[/b]
Starter avg - .9153
Offense avg - .9186
Defense avg - .9120

The big pop comes in '21, where my wild guess at our projected starters jumps to roughly equivalent to the 215th best player in the country, even with Ulofoshio still in the lineup. Dom Hampton and Victor Curne are the only other players under .8700. 15 of the 22 starters composite scores are over .9000.
 
With nothing else to do, I figured I'd update the look at our talent level on the field, and unsurprisingly it's a bit of a disappointment.

2020 game 1[/b]
Starter avg - .8712
Offense avg - .8698
Defense avg - .8726

Unfortunately our talent level has declined a bit, and is now slightly below our 2018 team's talent level. This is largely due to 5 players: Pleasant (.8401), Bronson (.7831), Westover (.7000), Ulofoshio (.7597), and Bowman (.8333) who are all rated pretty far below their backups/expected starters. Not saying those guys are bad players, especially Westover and Ulofoshio, but they just drag down the average. Swapping in McGrew (.9113), Tuli (.9517), and Latu (.9435) bumps the team up to:

Starter avg - .8871
Offense avg - .8762
Defense avg - .8979

This rating would be just a hair higher than last year, and would be the most talent we've fielded in the 6 years I've analyzed, but is likely the highest back to the Neuheisel era, and possibly even the Lambright era. Breakdown by position group for 2020 (using the game 1 starters):

Skill positions (WR/RB) - .8862 (new record high)
OL - .8832 (new record high)

DL - .8511
LB - .8350 (new record low, thanks Bob!)
DB - .9113 (new record high)
 
Starting walk ons is great as long as they beat out the talent you’ve been stacking.

Bowman does some things well but he wouldn’t start on a national championship caliber team. Bronson plays more than he has to due to injuries and lack of upper class bodies. Ulo we are extremely lucky to have. Pleasant starting is just a misevaluation. Westover is awesome and he had to earn his unique role.
 
Starting walk ons is great as long as they beat out the talent you’ve been stacking.

Bowman does some things well but he wouldn’t start on a national championship caliber team. Bronson plays more than he has to due to injuries and lack of upper class bodies. Ulo we are extremely lucky to have. Pleasant starting is just a misevaluation. Westover is awesome and he had to earn his unique role.
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So lack of talent. Agreed.
 
With nothing else to do, I figured I'd update the look at our talent level on the field, and unsurprisingly it's a bit of a disappointment.

2020 game 1[/b]
Starter avg - .8712
Offense avg - .8698
Defense avg - .8726

Unfortunately our talent level has declined a bit, and is now slightly below our 2018 team's talent level. This is largely due to 5 players: Pleasant (.8401), Bronson (.7831), Westover (.7000), Ulofoshio (.7597), and Bowman (.8333) who are all rated pretty far below their backups/expected starters. Not saying those guys are bad players, especially Westover and Ulofoshio, but they just drag down the average. Swapping in McGrew (.9113), Tuli (.9517), and Latu (.9435) bumps the team up to:

Starter avg - .8871
Offense avg - .8762
Defense avg - .8979

This rating would be just a hair higher than last year, and would be the most talent we've fielded in the 6 years I've analyzed, but is likely the highest back to the Neuheisel era, and possibly even the Lambright era. Breakdown by position group for 2020 (using the game 1 starters):

Skill positions (WR/RB) - .8862 (new record high)
OL - .8832 (new record high)

DL - .8511
LB - .8350 (new record low, thanks Bob!)
DB - .9113 (new record high)
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Give me Eddie and his 2* all day long vs this 4* xaraoxfwwuck.png
 
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