Warning will make the mullah bros cry
๐๐๐: ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐. ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐'๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐.
Victor Davis Hanson just did what no one in legacy media will do. He looked at the Iran war empirically.
The verdict isn't close.
Iran โ ๐๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฉ๐๐จ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐, the largest military power in the Middle East by every measure, feared by the Gulf monarchies and Europeans alike โ has just suffered one of the most lopsided asymmetric defeats in modern history.
Hanson: "๐๐ต'๐ด ๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐บ ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ด๐ถ๐ข๐ญ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ช๐ฅ๐ฆ ๐ฉ๐ข๐ด ๐ฃ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ด๐ฐ ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ต๐ฐ๐ณ๐ช๐ฐ๐ถ๐ด ๐ช๐ฏ ๐ข๐ฏ ๐ข๐ด๐บ๐ฎ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ต๐ณ๐ช๐ค ๐ธ๐ข๐ณ, ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฑ๐ฆ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ๐ญ๐บ ๐ข๐จ๐ข๐ช๐ฏ๐ด๐ต ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐จ๐ฆ๐ด๐ต ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ณ ๐ช๐ฏ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐๐ช๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฆ ๐๐ข๐ด๐ต."
The scorecard:
Iran has lost ๐ก๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ โ possibly ๐ก๐๐ฅ๐ ๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ซ๐ฌ โ in a half-century of investment in missiles, drones, submarines, and capital ships. Gone.
Their command and control is "๐ฅ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ฆ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ณ๐ฅ ๐ต๐ช๐ฆ๐ณ." Nobody โ not the theocracy, not the IRGC, not the political class, not the army โ knows who's actually in charge. They're afraid of each other. They're afraid to look soft. And they're afraid that cutting a deal means "๐ธ๐ฆ'๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ข๐ญ๐ญ ๐จ๐ฐ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ฃ๐ฆ ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ธ๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐ธ๐ฆ'๐ท๐ฆ ๐ฅ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฆ."
Meanwhile, the American left spent one day calling Trump a warmonger and a "๐๐ช๐ต๐ญ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ช๐ข๐ฏ ๐ง๐ช๐จ๐ถ๐ณ๐ฆ." The next day, after he announced negotiations, they called him a "๐ต๐ข๐ค๐ฐ" โ a Neville Chamberlain, a Jimmy Carter.
Hanson nailed the pathology. They don't analyze the war empirically. They analyze it politically. In his words, Tom Friedman and Bill Kristol "๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ด๐ต ๐ง๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ญ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐ข๐ฏ๐บ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐ฉ๐ข๐ฑ๐ฑ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ด ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐จ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ฆ๐ญ๐บ ๐ช๐ฏ ๐๐ณ๐ข๐ฏ ๐ฎ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ๐ฃ๐ฆ ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ด๐ช๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ฆ ๐ฃ๐ฆ๐ค๐ข๐ถ๐ด๐ฆ ๐ช๐ต ๐ธ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ญ๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ถ๐ณ๐ต ๐๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ข๐ญ๐ฅ ๐๐ณ๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฑ."
๐๐๐,๐๐๐ ๐๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐๐ง ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ข๐๐ซ๐ฌ are in that theater right now. Risking their lives to make sure Iran never puts a nuclear-tipped missile on Tel Aviv, London, or eventually Chicago. And half the political class is ๐ซ๐จ๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง because of who's in the Oval Office.
Read that again.
And the losers don't stop at Tehran.
๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐: no more Venezuela. No more Latin America. No more Middle East. Assad is gone. The drone pipeline with Iran is severed. Bogged down in Ukraine, bleeding over a million and a half casualties.
๐๐ก๐ข๐ง๐: took 80 percent of all Iranian oil. That pipeline is now contingent on the United States. And Beijing just watched America broadcast to the world that it's about to mass-produce a half-million to a million drones. Any fantasy of crossing 110 nautical miles to take Taiwan just got a lot more expensive.
๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐, in Hanson's words, is "๐ข ๐ฃ๐ช๐จ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ด๐ฆ๐ณ." We asked them for bases and airspace. That was it. Spain closed its embassy in Israel โ "๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ข๐ญ๐ญ ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ข๐ค๐ต๐ช๐ค๐ข๐ญ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ณ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ด๐ฆ๐ด, ๐๐ฑ๐ข๐ช๐ฏ ๐ช๐ด ๐ข ๐ฃ๐ฆ๐ญ๐ญ๐ช๐จ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต." France wouldn't let us use its airpower or clean up H-z-b in Lebanon, its own post-colonial responsibility. Italy wouldn't let our bombers land in Sicily. The United Kingdom โ the nation that built the Royal Navy โ "๐ค๐ข๐ฏ'๐ต ๐ฆ๐ท๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ด๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฆ ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐ฐ๐บ๐ฆ๐ณ" to protect its own base in Cyprus.
Turkey, a NATO member, is openly siding with Iran and threatening a NATO partner, Israel.
Hanson's verdict: "๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ ๐ค๐ข๐ฏ ๐ด๐ฆ๐ฆ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฃ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ฎ ๐ธ๐ช๐ต๐ฉ ๐๐๐๐, ๐ฏ๐ข๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ญ๐บ." Going forward, the United States will pick and choose which NATO members are actually worth the alliance. The rest are "๐ฆ๐ช๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ณ ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ถ๐ต๐ณ๐ข๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ด๐ต๐ช๐ญ๐ฆ."
And the Strait of Hormuz? The left spent two weeks shrieking that closure would end the world. Reality: it carries ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐ญ of world oil, ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐. The Saudis are expanding their Red Sea pipeline. The Emirates are expanding theirs. A pipeline across the desert through Jordan to Haifa is on the table. Within a few years, the Gulf "๐ฎ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ญ๐บ ๐ด๐ฆ๐ณ๐ท๐ฆ ๐๐ณ๐ข๐ฏ." Their leverage becomes their liability.
If the war ends in two or three weeks, Hanson estimates seven months to economic recovery. Then comes the realization.
Iran is not threatening the Middle East. Iran has no ballistic missile threat. Iran has no immediate path to a nuclear weapon. Iran has no military. Its command and control is wiped out. Its population is stewing.
"๐๐ฉ๐ช๐ด ๐ค๐ฐ๐ถ๐ญ๐ฅ ๐ฃ๐ฆ ๐ญ๐ช๐ฌ๐ฆ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐๐ฆ๐ณ๐ญ๐ช๐ฏ ๐๐ข๐ญ๐ญ."
Not the next day. Not the next month. But within months โ or within two years, like the Soviet Union โ regime change.
This war was fought on Western American terms. No Fallujah. No house-to-house in Taji. No villages in Afghanistan where you can't tell friend from enemy. The asymmetry โ by design โ was total.
The 24-hour news cycle will keep shrieking. The Democrat-media borg will keep cycling through whichever narrative hurts Trump most that morning.
But the map has already been redrawn. ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐. ๐๐ก๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ก๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐ฅ๐๐. ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐. ๐๐ซ๐๐ง ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ๐จ๐ค ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐ค. ๐๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ค ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฆ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐ฏ๐๐ฌ.
๐๐๐: ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐. ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐'๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐.
Victor Davis Hanson just did what no one in legacy media will do. He looked at the Iran war empirically.
The verdict isn't close.
Iran โ ๐๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฉ๐๐จ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐, the largest military power in the Middle East by every measure, feared by the Gulf monarchies and Europeans alike โ has just suffered one of the most lopsided asymmetric defeats in modern history.
Hanson: "๐๐ต'๐ด ๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐บ ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ด๐ถ๐ข๐ญ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ช๐ฅ๐ฆ ๐ฉ๐ข๐ด ๐ฃ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ด๐ฐ ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ต๐ฐ๐ณ๐ช๐ฐ๐ถ๐ด ๐ช๐ฏ ๐ข๐ฏ ๐ข๐ด๐บ๐ฎ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ต๐ณ๐ช๐ค ๐ธ๐ข๐ณ, ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฑ๐ฆ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ๐ญ๐บ ๐ข๐จ๐ข๐ช๐ฏ๐ด๐ต ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐จ๐ฆ๐ด๐ต ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ณ ๐ช๐ฏ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐๐ช๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฆ ๐๐ข๐ด๐ต."
The scorecard:
Iran has lost ๐ก๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ โ possibly ๐ก๐๐ฅ๐ ๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ซ๐ฌ โ in a half-century of investment in missiles, drones, submarines, and capital ships. Gone.
Their command and control is "๐ฅ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ฆ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ณ๐ฅ ๐ต๐ช๐ฆ๐ณ." Nobody โ not the theocracy, not the IRGC, not the political class, not the army โ knows who's actually in charge. They're afraid of each other. They're afraid to look soft. And they're afraid that cutting a deal means "๐ธ๐ฆ'๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ข๐ญ๐ญ ๐จ๐ฐ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ฃ๐ฆ ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ธ๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐ธ๐ฆ'๐ท๐ฆ ๐ฅ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฆ."
Meanwhile, the American left spent one day calling Trump a warmonger and a "๐๐ช๐ต๐ญ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ช๐ข๐ฏ ๐ง๐ช๐จ๐ถ๐ณ๐ฆ." The next day, after he announced negotiations, they called him a "๐ต๐ข๐ค๐ฐ" โ a Neville Chamberlain, a Jimmy Carter.
Hanson nailed the pathology. They don't analyze the war empirically. They analyze it politically. In his words, Tom Friedman and Bill Kristol "๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ด๐ต ๐ง๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ญ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐ข๐ฏ๐บ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐ฉ๐ข๐ฑ๐ฑ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ด ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐จ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ฆ๐ญ๐บ ๐ช๐ฏ ๐๐ณ๐ข๐ฏ ๐ฎ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ๐ฃ๐ฆ ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ด๐ช๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ฆ ๐ฃ๐ฆ๐ค๐ข๐ถ๐ด๐ฆ ๐ช๐ต ๐ธ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ญ๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ถ๐ณ๐ต ๐๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ข๐ญ๐ฅ ๐๐ณ๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฑ."
๐๐๐,๐๐๐ ๐๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐๐ง ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ข๐๐ซ๐ฌ are in that theater right now. Risking their lives to make sure Iran never puts a nuclear-tipped missile on Tel Aviv, London, or eventually Chicago. And half the political class is ๐ซ๐จ๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง because of who's in the Oval Office.
Read that again.
And the losers don't stop at Tehran.
๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐: no more Venezuela. No more Latin America. No more Middle East. Assad is gone. The drone pipeline with Iran is severed. Bogged down in Ukraine, bleeding over a million and a half casualties.
๐๐ก๐ข๐ง๐: took 80 percent of all Iranian oil. That pipeline is now contingent on the United States. And Beijing just watched America broadcast to the world that it's about to mass-produce a half-million to a million drones. Any fantasy of crossing 110 nautical miles to take Taiwan just got a lot more expensive.
๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐, in Hanson's words, is "๐ข ๐ฃ๐ช๐จ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ด๐ฆ๐ณ." We asked them for bases and airspace. That was it. Spain closed its embassy in Israel โ "๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ข๐ญ๐ญ ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ข๐ค๐ต๐ช๐ค๐ข๐ญ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ณ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ด๐ฆ๐ด, ๐๐ฑ๐ข๐ช๐ฏ ๐ช๐ด ๐ข ๐ฃ๐ฆ๐ญ๐ญ๐ช๐จ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต." France wouldn't let us use its airpower or clean up H-z-b in Lebanon, its own post-colonial responsibility. Italy wouldn't let our bombers land in Sicily. The United Kingdom โ the nation that built the Royal Navy โ "๐ค๐ข๐ฏ'๐ต ๐ฆ๐ท๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ด๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฆ ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐ฐ๐บ๐ฆ๐ณ" to protect its own base in Cyprus.
Turkey, a NATO member, is openly siding with Iran and threatening a NATO partner, Israel.
Hanson's verdict: "๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ ๐ค๐ข๐ฏ ๐ด๐ฆ๐ฆ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฃ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ฎ ๐ธ๐ช๐ต๐ฉ ๐๐๐๐, ๐ฏ๐ข๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ญ๐บ." Going forward, the United States will pick and choose which NATO members are actually worth the alliance. The rest are "๐ฆ๐ช๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ณ ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ถ๐ต๐ณ๐ข๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ด๐ต๐ช๐ญ๐ฆ."
And the Strait of Hormuz? The left spent two weeks shrieking that closure would end the world. Reality: it carries ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐ญ of world oil, ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐. The Saudis are expanding their Red Sea pipeline. The Emirates are expanding theirs. A pipeline across the desert through Jordan to Haifa is on the table. Within a few years, the Gulf "๐ฎ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ญ๐บ ๐ด๐ฆ๐ณ๐ท๐ฆ ๐๐ณ๐ข๐ฏ." Their leverage becomes their liability.
If the war ends in two or three weeks, Hanson estimates seven months to economic recovery. Then comes the realization.
Iran is not threatening the Middle East. Iran has no ballistic missile threat. Iran has no immediate path to a nuclear weapon. Iran has no military. Its command and control is wiped out. Its population is stewing.
"๐๐ฉ๐ช๐ด ๐ค๐ฐ๐ถ๐ญ๐ฅ ๐ฃ๐ฆ ๐ญ๐ช๐ฌ๐ฆ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐๐ฆ๐ณ๐ญ๐ช๐ฏ ๐๐ข๐ญ๐ญ."
Not the next day. Not the next month. But within months โ or within two years, like the Soviet Union โ regime change.
This war was fought on Western American terms. No Fallujah. No house-to-house in Taji. No villages in Afghanistan where you can't tell friend from enemy. The asymmetry โ by design โ was total.
The 24-hour news cycle will keep shrieking. The Democrat-media borg will keep cycling through whichever narrative hurts Trump most that morning.
But the map has already been redrawn. ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐. ๐๐ก๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ก๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐ฅ๐๐. ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐. ๐๐ซ๐๐ง ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ๐จ๐ค ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐ค. ๐๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ค ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฆ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐ฏ๐๐ฌ.
