UW’s Path to Pac12 Championship
- Thread starter CFetters_Nacho_Lover
- Start date
A redditor finally broke it down. Here's the path for UW and why it needs to be this way.
1. Washington beats WSU & Oregon State beats Oregon. If these both don't happen, Oregon is in the championship.
2. If Colorado beats Utah, only Washington and Oregon are tied and Washington has the tiebreaker.
3. If Utah beats Colorado, there is a three way tie for second (Washington, Oregon, Utah).
4. Washington and Utah have not played, so we look at win % against common teams (Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado, Washington State). The tied schools are all 5-1.
5. It goes to record against best common opponent (ties are treated as a group). Assuming UCLA beats Cal, they all teams will be tied.
6. It then goes to conference cumulative opponents win %. Looking only at the non-common opponents (because common opponents have the same wins), Washington's opponent's have 11 wins, Oregon opponent's have 14 wins, and Utah opponent's have 18 wins. Utah gets to go to the conference championship.
7. Going back to 5, if Cal beats UCLA, then Oregon State is the best common opponent. Oregon has a loss to Oregon State and drops out. So it goes to the two team tiebreaker between Washington and Utah.
8. There is no head-to-head, so it goes to win percentage against next highest common op, which is Oregon (8-2). Washington beat Oregon, Utah did not. Washington is going to the championship.
TLDR:
Washington will go to the P12CG if Oregon State beats Oregon, Washington beats Washington State, and
1. Colorado beats Utah or
2. Cal beats UCLA.
[PAC-12 tiebreaker rules.](https://pac-12.com/football/standings#:~:text=2022%20Football%20Tiebreakers%20Language&text=Win%20percentage%20against%20the%20next,)%2C%20proceeding%20through%20the%20standings.)
1. Washington beats WSU & Oregon State beats Oregon. If these both don't happen, Oregon is in the championship.
2. If Colorado beats Utah, only Washington and Oregon are tied and Washington has the tiebreaker.
3. If Utah beats Colorado, there is a three way tie for second (Washington, Oregon, Utah).
4. Washington and Utah have not played, so we look at win % against common teams (Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado, Washington State). The tied schools are all 5-1.
5. It goes to record against best common opponent (ties are treated as a group). Assuming UCLA beats Cal, they all teams will be tied.
6. It then goes to conference cumulative opponents win %. Looking only at the non-common opponents (because common opponents have the same wins), Washington's opponent's have 11 wins, Oregon opponent's have 14 wins, and Utah opponent's have 18 wins. Utah gets to go to the conference championship.
7. Going back to 5, if Cal beats UCLA, then Oregon State is the best common opponent. Oregon has a loss to Oregon State and drops out. So it goes to the two team tiebreaker between Washington and Utah.
8. There is no head-to-head, so it goes to win percentage against next highest common op, which is Oregon (8-2). Washington beat Oregon, Utah did not. Washington is going to the championship.
TLDR:
Washington will go to the P12CG if Oregon State beats Oregon, Washington beats Washington State, and
1. Colorado beats Utah or
2. Cal beats UCLA.
[PAC-12 tiebreaker rules.](https://pac-12.com/football/standings#:~:text=2022%20Football%20Tiebreakers%20Language&text=Win%20percentage%20against%20the%20next,)%2C%20proceeding%20through%20the%20standings.)
GreenRiverGatorz
New Fish
This is actually correct. I was wrong on my first read of the criteria, as H2H doesn't matter in a multi team tie if all three teams haven't played each other.
It's fucking stupid, since we should win in a three way tie between us, Oregon, and Utah, but it instead goes to the "best record against common opponent" criteria, which becomes a complete rabbit hole of conference record comparisons. The tl;dr is that Cal has to beat UCLA for us to win on that criteria.
GreenRiverGatorz
New Fish
USC making the playoffs likely gets us a NY6 bowl if we win out. If Oregon wins the conference then it's a total crapshoot where we land.
If USC makes the playoff and we beat Cuog we go to the Rose Bowl. (Assuming USC plays Oregon).
We have a better shot at another NY6 bowl if TCU does not make the playoffs. Otherwise it looks dicey- we’d need to pass Penn State in the rankings, and if the PAC-12 champ is not USC, we’d need to pass them too.
We have a better shot at another NY6 bowl if TCU does not make the playoffs. Otherwise it looks dicey- we’d need to pass Penn State in the rankings, and if the PAC-12 champ is not USC, we’d need to pass them too.
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GreenRiverGatorz
New Fish
Agreed. No chance the committee moves Oregon below us barring an absolute pants shitting in the CCG. They're rightfully hesitant to punish a team for a CCG appearance.
Just one more reason to put a dagger in this mismanaged conference.
This new system is so fucking gay. UW wins the North if we beat Kewg and Oregon loses to Boov.
CuntWaffle
New Fish
We aren’t making the CCG but should be able to slip into a NY6 game if we win out and so does USC.
MikeSeaver
New Fish
The Bowls don’t pick by rankings. They could but it’s not a requirement. They pick whomever they want.
EsophagealFeces
Well-known poster
Mara Lago? I’m pretty sure I’ve watched her adult films
EsophagealFeces
Well-known poster
This thread turned into a cross between autism and aids.
GrundleStiltzkin
New Fish
Bored motto?
GreenRiverGatorz
New Fish
"Should a team from the Big Ten or Pac-12 be selected to play in the College Football Playoff, the Tournament of Roses will traditionally select the next-highest CFP-ranked team from that conference." [/i]
I'm guessing they used the word "traditionally" to signal that it's not contractually obligated, but given that the RB has never deviated from it, I think you can safely assume that they'll pick the next highest ranked P12 team should USC go to the playoffs.
https://tournamentofroses.com/2022-rose-bowl-game-returns-to-traditional-format/
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