Two Way Too Early Thoughts on Michigan Game
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Tequilla
Active poster
I posted a longer version of this on Twitter/X ... but this game is really simple to me
Statistically this Michigan team is no better than their version last year ... their run game isn't as explosive, McCarthy is more efficient with another year of experience, and their defense is about the same
The Big10 was EPICALLY BAD this year at the QB position ... any gains that they have had defensively this year likely can be explained by that
The most comparable team to Michigan offensively in the PAC is probably what Oregon St has been doing the last few years (arguably with better talent) ... if I'm ranking McCarthy in the context of PAC QBs he's definitely behind Penix, Caleb, and Nix; almost assuredly behind Fifita; likely behind Sanders and Ward; and probably most comparable to DJU
Last year, the Michigan defense gave up 300+ yards to both CJ Stroud and Aidan O'Connell and about 500 yards against TCU ... a team that frankly isn't as good as this UW team is.
I find it hard to believe that UW won't be able to throw the ball on them ... the biggest difference that we'll have with Michigan's D is that they'll bring more pressure and blitzes because I don't think that they'll be able to hold up on the back end of things. Protecting Penix and the turnovers will be massive keys.
Standing up to the Michigan OL on the LOS is an obvious key because unlike Texas they will keep running it until you stop it. That said, their running style is a much better fit for what we're built to defend versus what Texas does trying to get more into space. If the run game is successful they get to lean into the play action game and they'll definitely try a shot with a flea flicker at some point. But outside of Roman Wilson and the TE Loveland, I'm not that concerned about any of their other receiving options.
If you go through the top end of the talent and compare/contrast whether we're talking about Day 1 or Day 1 + Day 2 NFL picks in this draft, UW's definitely winning that. Because of the brand, the Michigan players have a higher perception to them. But in terms of quality, the balance of the high end quality sits with Washington.
This just feels like a great matchup for UW ...
UW - 31
Michigan - 24
Statistically this Michigan team is no better than their version last year ... their run game isn't as explosive, McCarthy is more efficient with another year of experience, and their defense is about the same
The Big10 was EPICALLY BAD this year at the QB position ... any gains that they have had defensively this year likely can be explained by that
The most comparable team to Michigan offensively in the PAC is probably what Oregon St has been doing the last few years (arguably with better talent) ... if I'm ranking McCarthy in the context of PAC QBs he's definitely behind Penix, Caleb, and Nix; almost assuredly behind Fifita; likely behind Sanders and Ward; and probably most comparable to DJU
Last year, the Michigan defense gave up 300+ yards to both CJ Stroud and Aidan O'Connell and about 500 yards against TCU ... a team that frankly isn't as good as this UW team is.
I find it hard to believe that UW won't be able to throw the ball on them ... the biggest difference that we'll have with Michigan's D is that they'll bring more pressure and blitzes because I don't think that they'll be able to hold up on the back end of things. Protecting Penix and the turnovers will be massive keys.
Standing up to the Michigan OL on the LOS is an obvious key because unlike Texas they will keep running it until you stop it. That said, their running style is a much better fit for what we're built to defend versus what Texas does trying to get more into space. If the run game is successful they get to lean into the play action game and they'll definitely try a shot with a flea flicker at some point. But outside of Roman Wilson and the TE Loveland, I'm not that concerned about any of their other receiving options.
If you go through the top end of the talent and compare/contrast whether we're talking about Day 1 or Day 1 + Day 2 NFL picks in this draft, UW's definitely winning that. Because of the brand, the Michigan players have a higher perception to them. But in terms of quality, the balance of the high end quality sits with Washington.
This just feels like a great matchup for UW ...
UW - 31
Michigan - 24
Pretty sure the D started out like this in the Sugar Bowl. Don’t know when they switched it up.
sinceredawg
Member
Teq, curious what you'd say specifically about the talking points of Joe Klatt's segment where he comes to the opposite conclusion?
Houhusky
New Fish
Klatt thinks that UWs offense is dependent on number of possessions and going fast, he hasn't watched UW.
The talking point that Michigan has a team specifically to stop a team like UW is actually syphilitic retardation, they play in the fucking Big10, they have a defense to beat big10 teams. Not a single team they ever play has a team/scheme like UW. They dont have some specialized defense focused on stopping a shotgun presnap motion vertical offense with ELITE QB/WR play, it would be retarded to be in the Big10 and build a defense to do so... Besides, this is not an exaggeration, the best offenses they faced all year were fucking Maryland and UNLV.
I dont know where they are getting it but Klatt literally just repeated the exact same "this defense is built specifically for UW" talking points even regurgitated by retards falling for my 5 reasons post on their board. I haven't heard anyone actually break down what Michigan's defense actually tries to do other than "play defense good". But then again they are all obese drunken puffy jacket wearing Midwesterners stuck in the 80s so Im not surprised.
EsophagealFeces
Well-known poster
This. Alabama’s defenses with 1st round picks all across the DL and in the secondary are what you need to stop this offense. Michigan doesn’t have that. They have a defense built to stop retard offenses like Iowa and Penn State that have dogshit QBs are are content to try to beat you 17-13. If they can’t pressure Penix and fall behind by multiple scores early, a plungering isn’t impossible.
Tequilla
Active poster
UW's played low possession games and been incredibly efficient when needed. Personally I think UW is at its best when it feels like it doesn't have a margin for error as IMO their biggest weakness is that they can get bored. We CAN play with tempo but our tempo is more stripping away your ability to sub and running a bunch of shifts/motions until we get something that we like.
This idea that Michigan is built to stop what UW does is really laughable to me. Is the conclusion because they've beat Ohio St 3 straight years? It's a lazy comp but whatever.
The biggest problem in evaluating Michigan's defense is that by and large the Big10 doesn't have the athletes on the outside and lacks the QB play necessary to be anything more than playing time warped football dating back to the 1970s and 1980s.
Think about the following:
- Big10 QB play this year was HORRENDOUS
- Only 3 of 14 offenses in the Big10 threw the ball on more than half of their plays (Maryland, Illinois, and Wisconsin) in B10 play ... only Maryland was over 53%
- 9 of 14 offenses AVERAGED under 4 yards per carry ... nobody rushed for over 5 yards per carry (all stats conference only); in comparison 7 of 12 offenses rushed for over 4 yards per carry in the PAC
The 2 best passing offenses Michigan played this year to date were Maryland and Ohio St. Maryland threw for 247 yards on 21 of 31 and Ohio St threw for 271 on 18 of 30. You do the math and tell me where those QBs rank in the PAC hierarchy.
Last year, Michigan faced 2 future starting NFL QBs (Stroud at Ohio St and O'Connell at Purdue). Against Ohio St they gave up 349 in the air on 31 of 48 and against Purdue 366 on 32 for 47. In both games they gave up over 450 yards of total offense. Against TCU they gave up just under 500 yards of total offense with high volatility in the passing game doing a respectable 14 of 29 but giving up 225 yards (16 yards per completion) and highlighting how TCU's speed led to a number of big plays (most notably Johnston's long 4th quarter TD on a crossing drag route against a blitz and effectively a Cover 0 behind it.
Michigan's stats this year are a great example of how if you don't look at context you fall into the stats are for losers club. Sure, Michigan looks like a world beater defensively but even in the B10 context their defense was worse than Ohio St, Penn St, and Iowa. But the devil is always in the detail. When you look under the hood what you realize is that ALL defensive stats in the Big10 are propped up because of poor QB play. The Big10 wasn't good out of conference this season in peer games. They haven't particularly been good in the bowl season. Michigan is getting credit for beating Alabama but let's be honest that Milroe is much more of an athlete than he is a QB at this point and that Michigan was able to exploit two very critical problems that Bama has had all season offensively (the OL can get confused picking up pressures and Milroe tends to hold the ball too long).
Now, we can talk about whether UW's DL and LBs can hold up against the Michigan run game and that's definitely a valid question and concern. But this idea that Michigan's defense is uniquely positioned to stop UW is one that I just can't get behind.
Tequilla
Active poster
Generally speaking regarding pace ...
UW has generally played a game in the 1st half where the possessions are decent and we tend to score at a relatively high rate
It is in the 2nd half where we tend to play much more situationally and are willing to run the clock ... given that Michigan will run the clock as well it's definitely possible that if we can get up early there's going to be opportunity to really limit 2nd half possessions
UW has generally played a game in the 1st half where the possessions are decent and we tend to score at a relatively high rate
It is in the 2nd half where we tend to play much more situationally and are willing to run the clock ... given that Michigan will run the clock as well it's definitely possible that if we can get up early there's going to be opportunity to really limit 2nd half possessions
Kingdome_Urinals
New Fish
The new talking point is that Michigan is "specifically built" to stop the Ohio St. offense, and by extension the UW offense.
Because Michigan has beaten Ohio St. in 2021, 2022, and 2023 they will beat UW.
I just think Penix is a better passer and competitor than Stroud and the Ohio St. guys.
Because Michigan has beaten Ohio St. in 2021, 2022, and 2023 they will beat UW.
I just think Penix is a better passer and competitor than Stroud and the Ohio St. guys.
AtomicDawg
New Fish
If healthy nobody is stopping this offense. I guess penix could have an off game. But nobody can cover these guys or stop them from winning jump balls.
HFNY
Well-known poster
What's Chinteresting is that Dillon Johnson has more yards and fewer carries than Corum. Corum has the 25 TDs that get all of the headlines.
I am not a Stats guy over everything else and am not saying Corum sucks (because he clearly doesn't).....but take a look at his game log. Their best OL (Zak Zinter) had a bad leg break against Ohio State but even before then, Corum's YPC weren't amazing. He gashed ECU, Bowling Green, and Minnesota and averaged 5.6 ypc against Penn State yet his numbers against the best teams aren't that great. I'm not saying UW's Run D is elite or even very good but it is good enough when it matters.
Lastly, I'd argue that UW has faced better RBs than Corum....principally in Bucky Irving and one could probably argue that the Oregon State RB (Martinez) is better as well. Heck, even the Texas combo of CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue put some fear in me:
https://espn.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/4429096/blake-corum
I am not a Stats guy over everything else and am not saying Corum sucks (because he clearly doesn't).....but take a look at his game log. Their best OL (Zak Zinter) had a bad leg break against Ohio State but even before then, Corum's YPC weren't amazing. He gashed ECU, Bowling Green, and Minnesota and averaged 5.6 ypc against Penn State yet his numbers against the best teams aren't that great. I'm not saying UW's Run D is elite or even very good but it is good enough when it matters.
Lastly, I'd argue that UW has faced better RBs than Corum....principally in Bucky Irving and one could probably argue that the Oregon State RB (Martinez) is better as well. Heck, even the Texas combo of CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue put some fear in me:
https://espn.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/4429096/blake-corum
Tequilla
Active poster
It's an interesting flex because in 2021 Stroud threw for almost 400 yards and they scored 27 points. In 2022 it was 349 yards and 23 points.
My recollection in watching the games in 2021 and 2022 in particular was that Michigan absolutely bullied them at the LOS on both sides of the ball and were by far the better 2nd half team in both games.
Michigan hasn't stopped Ohio St as much as they've perhaps slowed them versus their norms.
The difference has been that Ohio St doesn't have answers for Michigan offensively and at the LOS
I was legit startled seeing Corum and the #2 back's YPC, plus throw in McCarthy. With Zinter out their two best OL might be a Stanford grad transfer and an ASU guy I remember both being above average but not spectacular in the conference. The ASU guy put a gnarly hit on ZTF in 2021. Not sure any of this means anything but don't think it's bad.
It would have been interesting to see them play a single good team outside of Washington. They blew the doors off the teams we? struggled against. I really can't figure out why this team didn't dominate more this year. If I had to explain it I guess the defense needed 1 more dominate DL, a more athletic LB (no offense to Bruener as he was solid but not dominate), 2 more shut down DBs and a dominate safety. The D was serviceable and bailed the O out when it inexplicably struggled but had it been dominate, UW would have cruised to this NC.