Transfer Portal Panacea is delusional

godawgst

godawgst

Active poster
Swaye's Wigwam
JL has talked about how the transfer portal has made them much better at WR this year.

Assuming McMillian is out an extended period of time and w/ Sawyer on Covid watch who is our 3rd wr (let alone 4th) when we run those formations?

Rome/Bynum are set, then after that we have Tinae, Davis, Jackson, and Polk.

In reading practice reports those 4 have not made much of impact at all which is to be expected with their limited to no experience.

Point is as of right now (and it may change with NIL although I am skeptical) here is what the transfer portal brings

75% of the hundreds of kids that enter it step down a level to their new school.

of the 25% left, another 75% will end up being a jag or less in terms of making a meaningful on field contribution.

So that implies about a 7-8% chance you are going to pull someone from the transfer portal that moves the needle.

So for the doogs who said it didn't matter that 5 of our top 9 wr's entered the transfer portal last year and it would be addition by subtraction, if you enjoyed watching us run into 8 man boxes last year, get ready for a double dose of that beginning at Michigan.

 
I’m pretty sure everyone wishes we still had Puka. Polk is the next guy up right now, followed by probably Jackson (maybe more of a gadget guy at this point).

Polk had 28 catches for Texas Tech. We’ll see how he does, but I don’t think he’s chopped liver as a #3. Racc should be back by Michigan. Even Davis had a few moments in Spring ball.

It’s a problem until it’s not, but we were never having five WR’s with 20+ catches. Nobody besides air raid teams that rarely use a TE do. It’s not my biggest concern.
 
JL has talked about how the transfer portal has made them much better at WR this year.

Assuming McMillian is out an extended period of time and w/ Sawyer on Covid watch who is our 3rd wr (let alone 4th) when we run those formations?

Rome/Bynum are set, then after that we have Tinae, Davis, Jackson, and Polk.

In reading practice reports those 4 have not made much of impact at all which is to be expected with their limited to no experience.

Point is as of right now (and it may change with NIL although I am skeptical) here is what the transfer portal brings

75% of the hundreds of kids that enter it step down a level to their new school.

of the 25% left, another 75% will end up being a jag or less in terms of making a meaningful on field contribution.

So that implies about a 7-8% chance you are going to pull someone from the transfer portal that moves the needle.

So for the doogs who said it didn't matter that 5 of our top 9 wr's entered the transfer portal last year and it would be addition by subtraction, if you enjoyed watching us run into 8 man boxes last year, get ready for a double dose of that beginning at Michigan.
Click to expand...
I think people are putting too much faith in the Portal also but your math is off here. You've already preselected out the 75% who move down a level when you are talking about kids who portal into UW. So the odds (assuming your math is correct) of a kid from the portal hitting are 25%, not 7-8%.

And obviously I think we can do better than that. We know Bookie has a much higher than 25% chance of making an impact. We know O'Brien has a lower than 25% chance.

I think with Polk 25% is conservative. He's probably going to be a solid contributor, at worst.

We still need to recruit actual high school kids.
 
JL has talked about how the transfer portal has made them much better at WR this year.

Assuming McMillian is out an extended period of time and w/ Sawyer on Covid watch who is our 3rd wr (let alone 4th) when we run those formations?

Rome/Bynum are set, then after that we have Tinae, Davis, Jackson, and Polk.

In reading practice reports those 4 have not made much of impact at all which is to be expected with their limited to no experience.

Point is as of right now (and it may change with NIL although I am skeptical) here is what the transfer portal brings

75% of the hundreds of kids that enter it step down a level to their new school.

of the 25% left, another 75% will end up being a jag or less in terms of making a meaningful on field contribution.

So that implies about a 7-8% chance you are going to pull someone from the transfer portal that moves the needle.

So for the doogs who said it didn't matter that 5 of our top 9 wr's entered the transfer portal last year and it would be addition by subtraction, if you enjoyed watching us run into 8 man boxes last year, get ready for a double dose of that beginning at Michigan.
Click to expand...
I think people are putting too much faith in the Portal also but your math is off here. You've already preselected out the 75% who move down a level when you are talking about kids who portal into UW. So the odds (assuming your math is correct) of a kid from the portal hitting are 25%, not 7-8%.

And obviously I think we can do better than that. We know Bookie has a much higher than 25% chance of making an impact. We know O'Brien has a lower than 25% chance.

I think with Polk 25% is conservative. He's probably going to be a solid contributor, at worst.

We still need to recruit actual high school kids.
Click to expand...

This this this this this. There are very few transfers who end up being dudes. Just look at the average roster of Bama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, Florida, etc. They may have 2, maybe 3 transfers. They re-stock with high school kids and go from there. Generally speaking you transfer cause you're not playing. Outside of Pete's weird fetish with upperclassmen, the best players play, or at least are given a roadmap for playing time.

Oklahoma got really really lucky that their QB room was stocked full with QB's who just happened to be really fucking good but stuck behind an entrenched starter. That is definitely the exception, not the rule.
 
JL has talked about how the transfer portal has made them much better at WR this year.

Assuming McMillian is out an extended period of time and w/ Sawyer on Covid watch who is our 3rd wr (let alone 4th) when we run those formations?

Rome/Bynum are set, then after that we have Tinae, Davis, Jackson, and Polk.

In reading practice reports those 4 have not made much of impact at all which is to be expected with their limited to no experience.

Point is as of right now (and it may change with NIL although I am skeptical) here is what the transfer portal brings

75% of the hundreds of kids that enter it step down a level to their new school.

of the 25% left, another 75% will end up being a jag or less in terms of making a meaningful on field contribution.

So that implies about a 7-8% chance you are going to pull someone from the transfer portal that moves the needle.

So for the doogs who said it didn't matter that 5 of our top 9 wr's entered the transfer portal last year and it would be addition by subtraction, if you enjoyed watching us run into 8 man boxes last year, get ready for a double dose of that beginning at Michigan.
Click to expand...
I think people are putting too much faith in the Portal also but your math is off here. You've already preselected out the 75% who move down a level when you are talking about kids who portal into UW. So the odds (assuming your math is correct) of a kid from the portal hitting are 25%, not 7-8%.

And obviously I think we can do better than that. We know Bookie has a much higher than 25% chance of making an impact. We know O'Brien has a lower than 25% chance.

I think with Polk 25% is conservative. He's probably going to be a solid contributor, at worst.

We still need to recruit actual high school kids.
Click to expand...

This this this this this. There are very few transfers who end up being dudes. Just look at the average roster of Bama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, Florida, etc. They may have 2, maybe 3 transfers. They re-stock with high school kids and go from there. Generally speaking you transfer cause you're not playing. Outside of Pete's weird fetish with upperclassmen, the best players play, or at least are given a roadmap for playing time.

Oklahoma got really really lucky that their QB room was stocked full with QB's who just happened to be really fucking good but stuck behind an entrenched starter. That is definitely the exception, not the rule.
Click to expand...

Saban wants to use the portal more
https://www.espn.com/college-footba...-football-playoff-expansion-nil-vaccines-more
 
JL has talked about how the transfer portal has made them much better at WR this year.

Assuming McMillian is out an extended period of time and w/ Sawyer on Covid watch who is our 3rd wr (let alone 4th) when we run those formations?

Rome/Bynum are set, then after that we have Tinae, Davis, Jackson, and Polk.

In reading practice reports those 4 have not made much of impact at all which is to be expected with their limited to no experience.

Point is as of right now (and it may change with NIL although I am skeptical) here is what the transfer portal brings

75% of the hundreds of kids that enter it step down a level to their new school.

of the 25% left, another 75% will end up being a jag or less in terms of making a meaningful on field contribution.

So that implies about a 7-8% chance you are going to pull someone from the transfer portal that moves the needle.

So for the doogs who said it didn't matter that 5 of our top 9 wr's entered the transfer portal last year and it would be addition by subtraction, if you enjoyed watching us run into 8 man boxes last year, get ready for a double dose of that beginning at Michigan.
Click to expand...
I think people are putting too much faith in the Portal also but your math is off here. You've already preselected out the 75% who move down a level when you are talking about kids who portal into UW. So the odds (assuming your math is correct) of a kid from the portal hitting are 25%, not 7-8%.

And obviously I think we can do better than that. We know Bookie has a much higher than 25% chance of making an impact. We know O'Brien has a lower than 25% chance.

I think with Polk 25% is conservative. He's probably going to be a solid contributor, at worst.

We still need to recruit actual high school kids.
Click to expand...

This this this this this. There are very few transfers who end up being dudes. Just look at the average roster of Bama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, Florida, etc. They may have 2, maybe 3 transfers. They re-stock with high school kids and go from there. Generally speaking you transfer cause you're not playing. Outside of Pete's weird fetish with upperclassmen, the best players play, or at least are given a roadmap for playing time.

Oklahoma got really really lucky that their QB room was stocked full with QB's who just happened to be really fucking good but stuck behind an entrenched starter. That is definitely the exception, not the rule.
Click to expand...

Saban wants to use the portal more
https://www.espn.com/college-footba...-football-playoff-expansion-nil-vaccines-more
Click to expand...
http://twitter.com/ByCasagrande/status/1428379025882427397?s=20
 
Remember when Chico mclatcher was going to be a threat and a boost for the wrs? Or when Jones was going to be a dominant sideline target? All the WRs suck except for Bynum until they don't and if you try to give us hope in them before they catch a ball then leave
 
JL has talked about how the transfer portal has made them much better at WR this year.

Assuming McMillian is out an extended period of time and w/ Sawyer on Covid watch who is our 3rd wr (let alone 4th) when we run those formations?

Rome/Bynum are set, then after that we have Tinae, Davis, Jackson, and Polk.

In reading practice reports those 4 have not made much of impact at all which is to be expected with their limited to no experience.

Point is as of right now (and it may change with NIL although I am skeptical) here is what the transfer portal brings

75% of the hundreds of kids that enter it step down a level to their new school.

of the 25% left, another 75% will end up being a jag or less in terms of making a meaningful on field contribution.

So that implies about a 7-8% chance you are going to pull someone from the transfer portal that moves the needle.

So for the doogs who said it didn't matter that 5 of our top 9 wr's entered the transfer portal last year and it would be addition by subtraction, if you enjoyed watching us run into 8 man boxes last year, get ready for a double dose of that beginning at Michigan.
Click to expand...
I think people are putting too much faith in the Portal also but your math is off here. You've already preselected out the 75% who move down a level when you are talking about kids who portal into UW. So the odds (assuming your math is correct) of a kid from the portal hitting are 25%, not 7-8%.

And obviously I think we can do better than that. We know Bookie has a much higher than 25% chance of making an impact. We know O'Brien has a lower than 25% chance.

I think with Polk 25% is conservative. He's probably going to be a solid contributor, at worst.

We still need to recruit actual high school kids.
Click to expand...

This this this this this. There are very few transfers who end up being dudes. Just look at the average roster of Bama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, Florida, etc. They may have 2, maybe 3 transfers. They re-stock with high school kids and go from there. Generally speaking you transfer cause you're not playing. Outside of Pete's weird fetish with upperclassmen, the best players play, or at least are given a roadmap for playing time.

Oklahoma got really really lucky that their QB room was stocked full with QB's who just happened to be really fucking good but stuck behind an entrenched starter. That is definitely the exception, not the rule.
Click to expand...

Saban wants to use the portal more
https://www.espn.com/college-footba...-football-playoff-expansion-nil-vaccines-more
Click to expand...

I'll believe it when i see it. He took two former 4/5 starts and 10 players departed or are still in the portal. He's going to plug his holes with more 4/5 stars out of high school. The portal helps him more than anyone else. Players that don't rise to the top can be replaced by blue chips. He can still sign 25 guys per class every year and not have to worry about the 85 scholarship limit.

If Jimmy decided he wanted to win, he'd scuttle about half of last years recruits to the portal and sign a full 25 man class.
 
Wait until Jimmy finds out that NFL free agency involves recruiting these days
 
How about just recruit well and do the portal well? Innovative though, I know.
Click to expand...

Why would Jimmy spend time on recruiting when he won't be doing that when he's an NFL head coach?
Click to expand...

Jimmy needs to win an NY6 before the NFL is remotely possible...
Click to expand...

that's the joke.gif

Only Sark can fail upwards. Most mortal coaches need to do something. Sometimes not a lot but something

 
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