The REAL Playoffs ... THE STANLEY CUP PLAYOFFS

Now that we're through 4 games in each series it's time to talk about where we stand …
Florida vs Toronto (Currently 2-2, next game tonight at 4 pm PST)
This is by far the best and most compelling 2nd round series and tonight's game is an absolute MUST WIN for Toronto. The beauty of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is that if you win a game you think you're never going to lose and will win the cup and if you lose it's you're never going to win and will get swept. After 2 wins at home Toronto had control of the series and just needed to win a game in Florida to put a stranglehold on the series … they didn't get it done. Instead, the defending champs got off the mat, flexed their muscle, and have now put all of the pressure on Toronto. My gut says Florida wins on the road tonight and finishes Toronto off in Florida in Game 6
Carolina vs Washington (Currently 3-1 Carolina, next game tomorrow at 4 pm PST)
I've barely watched any game of this series as these teams to me are very boring system teams full of a bunch of try hards that big picture don't have the skill that is in place in any of the other series. This was a coin flip before the series and so far it has tilted towards Carolina with 2 convincing wins at home to consolidate taking Game 1 on the road at Washington. I still think that this is a series that has a little more left in it and expect Washington to send it back to Carolina for a Game 6. At this point though, I'm not seeing anything to indicate that Washington can win this series.
Edmonton vs Vegas (Currently 3-1 Edmonton, next game tonight at 6:50 pm PST)
The venom in this series has ramped up with goaltenders getting run and some really physical stuff in the series highlighted by a spirted fight in Game 4. Edmonton's skill has really taken hold of this series and as I've noted a few times in these playoffs there is something that just feels off with Vegas compared to previous iterations of them. Vegas got embarrassed in Game 4 by getting shutout in Edmonton and I don't expect them to bow out tonight on home ice … that would surprise me. Edmonton is going to have to close out the series by winning on home ice on Friday night.
Dallas vs Winnipeg (Currently 3-1 Dallas, next game tomorrow at 6:50 pm PST)
This has been an interesting series in the sense that depending on who you listen to they'll tell you that the series has been really close and Winnipeg has been unlucky to be down 3-1. While I admit that I have bias in this series, I'm not seeing that perspective. I do see areas where these teams are relatively close but in series where the teams are close it's also a situation where the differences get magnified and Dallas had the advantages coming into the series in 2 key areas. The first key area was in goal where Oettinger has outplayed Hellebuyck over the course of the series … while Hellebuyck was the better goalie in the regular season you can't ignore the fact that he's been 0-5 on the road this postseason and his performance last night in Game 4 was the first time all postseason that he gave up less than 5 goals in a game on the road. The other major advantage Dallas had going into the series was that it's high-end talent (notably Mikko Rantanen) was more likely to produce in a tough series. That has played out through the first 4 games. Closing out Winnipeg at home will be difficult but I definitely think it's very possible as I'm not liking the body language and words coming out of the Winnipeg locker room. I think the series ends tomorrow night.
 
Panthers Leafs game 7 starting to feel like round 3 of the Four Nations tournament.
 
haie said:
Panthers Leafs game 7 starting to feel like round 3 of the Four Nations tournament.
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The Throbber knows jack shit about hockey.
Except the Throbber knows Toronto hasn't done shit in almost 60 years.
 
It's a shame that the buttfuckers over at KOMO4 decided that they'd rather be the 2nd station broadcasting the Storm tonight instead of a truly fantastic Stanley Cup playoff game
Don't let the 2-1 score fool you as there were chances throughout the night and both goaltenders made some miraculous saves
One thing I always say about hockey is that more goals doesn't necessarily mean that there's more excitement and that low scoring games mean that a game is boring. Tonight was a great example of that.
Tonight's game would have slotted in very well as a Game 6 or Game 7 game in the Stanley Cup Finals … it was that caliber of compete and desperation from both sides
On the balance #MyStars were the better team tonight and throughout the series and Oettinger outplayed Hellebuyck by just a smidge throughout the series … will be interesting to see what happens between now and Game 1 of the Olympics next year to see which of them starts in net for the USA
 
haie said:
Panthers Leafs game 7 starting to feel like round 3 of the Four Nations tournament.
Click to expand...
You'd think that all the pressure is gone for Toronto after having won Game 6 in Florida but it's not … it's doubled down now having to back that up playing Game 7 at home with all of Canada expecting a victory to win the series.
In contrast, you have the defending Champs sitting there in a "been there, done that" mode after having to rebound from blowing a 3-0 lead last year in the Finals to win a Game 7 … there's no more pressure than that. I expect Florida to rip the heart out of Toronto tomorrow night … wouldn't shock me at all if it's an OT game.
 
PurpleThrobber said:
haie said:
Panthers Leafs game 7 starting to feel like round 3 of the Four Nations tournament.
Click to expand...

image.png

The Throbber knows jack shit about hockey.
Except the Throbber knows Toronto hasn't done shit in almost 60 years.
Click to expand...
It's even crazier than that …
Toronto's last title came in the last year of the Original Six era …
Since then, Toronto has not only not won a title but they haven't even made it to the Finals
In fact, the Leafs have only played in the Semifinals 4x since then:
1993: Lost at home in Game 7 to Los Angeles (Gretzky had an infamous hat trick in Game 7)
1994: Lost to Vancouver in 5 games as a favorite
1999: Lost to Buffalo in 5 games
2002: Lost to Carolina in 6 games
It's truly an ugly history
 
Well, that was an ass kicking.

Fuck Toronto in general. Pompous cheesehead fucks. Worst attorneys in North America.
 
Toronto doesn't just lose … but they always seem to find the most crash and burn scenario way to lose
In recent years it's been by getting their hearts ripped out
This time around it was by basically no showing the last 2 home games of the series
Brutal
 
The Lightning and the Panthers probably combine for something like 4 cups at this point and it has to just absolutely torture Toronto and Montreal fans.
 
haie said:
The Lightning and the Panthers probably combine for something like 4 cups at this point and it has to just absolutely torture Toronto and Montreal fans.
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Yep - 4 total (Tampa in 2004, 2020, and 2021; Florida last year)
On top of that there's the Finals trips for both that they lost in:
Tampa: 2015 and 2022
Florida: 1996 and 2023
A Florida team has represented the East for 5 straight Cup appearances … if Florida wins the next series that's 6 in a row
Regardless of who wins between Carolina and Florida it'll be 6 straight appearances for a team in the Southeast and Carolina's history is also bound to make Toronto mad
Won the Cup in 2006
Lost in the Finals in 2002
 
Conference Finals Preview
Eastern Conference: Florida vs Carolina
A series pitting the defending champs vs the analytics darlings in Carolina.
One thing that you have to be careful of when looking at this time of the year is making too many judgments off of teams based on their prior series as matchups and circumstances can be material.
There are a few big questions that I see in this series:
  1. Can Andersen win the H2H goalie battle vs a cup winner and future HOFer in Bobrovsky … Andersen has arguably been the best goalie in the playoffs so far and he'll need to continue to be that to win this series
  2. Historically Carolina has struggled to score enough goals at this level of the playoffs with their 2 most recent Eastern Conference Finals appearances ending in sweeps (including in 2023 vs Florida) … in Round 2 Carolina scored 13 non-empty net goals in 5 games … anything south of 3 goals a game in this series likely won't be enough
  3. Can Florida impose their physical will on Carolina on the forecheck and slow down what Carolina likes to do in transition and on their own forecheck … history suggests that Florida does this quite well
I don't think Carolina gets swept in this series but they don't have the difference makers with a track record of coming up big in the big moments to win this series.
Florida in 6
Western Conference: Edmonton vs Dallas
A rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals and 2 teams that have made this stage of the postseason their homes recently with Edmonton being here 3 of the last 4 years (swept by Colorado in 2022 and won in 6 vs Dallas last year) and Dallas at this stage for 3 straight years now (lost in 6 games in 2023 to Vegas and 2024 to Edmonton).
Both teams have shown a high-end of depth so far in this postseason and I'd argue whoever wins this series will likely be the favorite to win the Finals vs the winner of the East.
Edmonton's 1st 2 rounds have been an interesting story. In Round 1, LA honestly should have beat them but pissed away a couple of games that they couldn't recover from giving Edmonton life and the series. Edmonton then parlayed that into a 5 game win over a Vegas team that while Edmonton deserves a lot of credit for how they won the series was not the type of Vegas team that we typically think that they are … I didn't see a lot of quality to Vegas coming into the playoffs and probably had them ranked 5th or 6th in my West rankings heading into the postseason.
Dallas on the other hand survived a very dangerous Colorado team in Round 1 without 2 of their best players and then won a tight series against Winnipeg in 6 games getting those players back as the series went along. The narrative around Dallas right now is that they are top heavy in the scoring department despite being arguably the deepest scoring team in the league over the course of the season … that's why the narratives heading into a series need to be watched as anybody that watched the Dallas/Winnipeg series saw how tight checking and defensive that series was.
My 3 questions heading into this series:
  1. Biggest potential gap heading into this series is in net where Jake Oettinger is making a very strong case to be the Conn Smythe winner as the Playoff MVP if Dallas can get all the way versus Edmonton's net where both goalies in the playoffs have a save % of under .900 (not good). Skinner is coming off of 2 shutouts vs Vegas to end that series and arguably was the difference maker in last year's series vs Dallas. If you get the high end of Skinner then Edmonton could be in a very good spot in this series … get the bad side of Skinner and it will put a lot of pressure on Edmonton to carry the balance of play to make up for it
  2. Special teams will play heavy in this series as you're always playing with fire if you load up McDavid and Draisaitl too often but Dallas has had the strongest PP of any team in the playoffs at over 30% so far. A big difference in last year's series was Edmonton having a historically good penalty kill and running wild on the Dallas PK … this year the Dallas PK in the playoffs has been directionally comparable to what Edmonton was doing last year. If there is a material winner on special teams that can win the series
  3. Who wins the depth scoring battle … Edmonton's guys have been doing that through the playoffs so far and the question is can they continue at the rate they are vs the Dallas depth that on paper has more pedigree to suggest that they should win in that regard but has not been producing so far through 2 rounds.
The margins in this series will be very small. My sense is that the 2 things that will drive this series and its ultimate outcome is going to be in net and Dallas being stronger on defense this year than they were last year.
Dallas in 7
 
We'll know a lot about the Eastern Conference Finals after tonight … must win for Carolina. If they don't win tonight there's a good chance that they get swept.
Dallas had a 5 goal 3rd period tonight to flip things on Edmonton that included 3 PP goals to start the period. As I noted in my preview the margins between these teams are small and special teams would play a big factor in how things play out. I wouldn't say that Jake Oettinger was great in goal last night for Dallas but he held firm when needed. In contrast, Stuart Skinner melted down in the 3rd and frankly probably could have had a couple of those goals. I wouldn't say Game 2 is a must win for Edmonton but it's approaching one as losing Game 2 eliminates any margin for error going forward.
 
Stanley Cup Preview
Since @PurpleJ likes rats this will be a series for him
Skill wise Edmonton is going to carry the day with McJesus and Draisaitl.
Florida should have the edge on D and in net and we'll see how effective Edmonton's D can be packing it in in front of the net against a team in Florida that has no problem barging their way through unlike the pussies from Dallas (still pissed at that series).
There's an edge to Edmonton that we'll likely find out within the first 2 games whether or not they can stand up to and take the fight directly to Florida.
Typically in Stanley Cup Finals rematches it is not uncommon for the team that lost the 1st Finals to rebound and win the 2nd Finals … the most recent example being Pittsburgh/Detroit in 2008 and 2009.
I like Edmonton in 7 games
 
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