Perennial playoff team?
You’ll be fringe 20-25 from here on out.
This is a stupid take unless DeBoer leaves. If he stays, he will eventually get them back. I think next year is going to be a lot rougher than doogs are chirping about, though. This team scrapped by the skin of their teeth through conference play. I believe there were at least four games that they lose if a single ridiculous "what the fuck!?" play isn't made. I'm thinking the dime Penix dropped to a punctured-lung Odunze to beat Oregon. TWO different Westover freak 4th down catches to extend drives in one-score games. Dillon Johnson's heroics in Oregon 2.0. Multiple freak Polk catches. The crazy end zone toe drag by Culp.
I think of every single "holy shit!" massive play this year, and it was made by somebody who will be gone next year. There is not another Penix waiting to take over. I love the hell out of Bernard and think he'll make a high level #1 receiver, but what's around him compared to the best receiver room in the country? We've all seen what's behind Dillon Johnson. Who in their right mind thinks next man up on the OL is going to win another Joe Moore award? What does the defense look like without the only two Sunday guys on that side of the ball in Trice and Tuli?
DeBoer needs for lightning to strike again with another of his QBs at the very least, and they need to start bringing a LOT more talent in the program so that it can have depth to hold up against a talented team like Texas and Michigan for four quarters. Or for a whole 14 or 15 game season. If we're being honest, this season ended where it did thanks in part to a ridiculous string of luck--making all of the amazing plays all season when they were absolutely necessary. Counting on that kind of gambler's luck is not a formula for sustained success. There's bound to be a regression to the mean thanks to attrition and a shift in luck (I'm calling 8 wins next year), but DeBoer can absolutely come back if he can rebuild the roster with the right pieces at the right positions that matter and surrounded by enough bought-in glue guys.
Saying he's "fringe" from here on out (assuming he sticks around) is stupid. I'm prepared for a short term dip, though.