@dhdawg
What the organization needs to figure out is what are they trying to do and how much are they willing to spend? They were right around $90M this season. I think they should be looking at getting into the $120-$130M range which puts you consistent with Texas but a little behind the Angels.
There's no chance I want anything to do with Brandon McCarthy - that's just throwing money away to be stupid.
I'd be 100% behind getting Ervin Santana if you are going to a Tier 2 starting pitcher.
Here are my problems with Aoki: 33 to start next season; in his 3 years in the majors his OPS+ has gone from 109, 100, and 98 (in comparison Saunders had an OPS+ of 128 this year, Ackley at 99, and Austin Jackson has had 3 of 5 years ahead of that in his career); and relatively zero power. This is the kind of guy that as soon as you give that contract to you are regretting it IMO.
In your scenario, what I'm taking away is that you'd spend about $25M next year on Victor Martinez and Ervin Santana. However, I do think you're a little light in the comp ranges though. Santana was on a 1 year $14M deal this year. I'm thinking you would be looking at 3 for 35 to 45 for him. Biggest problem with Martinez is going to be that he is the biggest bat on the market this year and will be looking at a potential bidding war from a number of different teams. He's coming off of a 4 for 50 deal so I think your call of 4 for 70 given his age probably isn't that far off. In total, you're looking at about $30M a year for these transactions.
If you take my scenario, I'm looking at going with Lester and Cuddyer as my two big free agent signings. I'm thinking you are looking at needing about $18M a year to be in the contest. Cliff Lee's deal from a few years ago was 5 for $120M. I'd hope that offering Lester a chance to come home, play without state income taxes (which could have an impact of up to $1-$2M per year depending on the state), and a chance to be on a contender with a favorable park for him given how deep left center field is at Safeco) is enough for him to possibly take a slightly lesser offer. Otherwise, I think you perhaps look at someone in Santana's range as what he will give you for about $10M less is worth it. Cuddyer you're ideally looking to get on a 2 year deal (willing to go 3) that will pay him in the $10-$12M range.
In both scenarios, the dollars are relatively comparable. I think you can get value with Cuddyer given that he's coming off a bit of an injury plagued year but has a demonstrated ability to hit. He's got enough position flexibility to make it make sense. And given that there's a strong pitching market in place (I expect the Red Sox and Yankees to make substantial runs and focus their attention on Scherzer and Shields, you might be able to find Lester as the forgotten man and the Mariners can actually find value there).
I think the Mariners value what Austin Jackson gives them in CF defensively and what we've seen from him hitting wise doesn't leave a favorable impression. I think you have to run the course with him given his defense and expect that what we saw over 2 months was as much tied to being uprooted and probably putting too much pressure on himself than anything else. The most interesting thing with him though will be if they try to resign him or not since he's heading into his last arbitration year when they've got a number of OFers coming up gradually through the system. Would he be a sexier name to put in the equation to try to get someone like Goldschmidt?
Zunino just needs to shorten his swing to find ways to make better contact - he'll still have the power regardless. He's good enough defensively, handles the staff well, and you can tell has some strong leadership qualities that he's going to be in the lineup 130+ games per year. There are a couple of other young catchers coming up in the system (on top of Sucre) that makes it so that you really don't need to sink a lot of money into the position.
