Fair warning, TL, DR in advance. I will keep this as short as possible. For those that skim, pay attention to the bolded/italicized portion.
It's fair to say that I've got a little frooog in me ... fuck off in advance @RoadDawg55 but thanks for starting this thread because there is a lot of what I see right now in Washington to what I saw in TCU going back to the 2012 and 2013 seasons as they entered the Big 12.
Going back to 2003 when I was first introduced really to TCU football and the genius of Gary Patterson, it was fairly clear that he knew what he was doing. They coaxed a 10-0 start to the season while rotating 2 QBs (starter of the season was frooog legend Tye Gunn before he got hurt 2x and the backup came in). They ended up the season losing to Boise St in a bowl game in Ft Worth ... which was also my first real introduction to Boise and at the time Offensive Coordinator Chris Petersen.
From 2003 to 2012, TCU gradually built up its talent base as its prestige and success mounted. What started with developing some real diamonds in the rough turned into getting the choice of the kids that were originally overlooked by some of the bigger schools in the area combined with player development.
In 2008, TCU went 11-2 with a sophomore QB named Andy Dalton. Their only losses on the year were a 35-10 loss @ an Oklahoma team that lost in the national championship game to Florida and 13-10 road loss to a 13-0 Utah team that beat SEC!!! power Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. TCU beat a 12-0 Boise team in a bowl game 17-16 ... a game that stood out to me because of how much TCU dominated the game, had better athletes, etc., yet somehow Boise hung in the game. In fact, I remember having conversations with @CokeGreaterThanPepsi during that game to that fact.
In 2009, TCU went 12-0 during the regular season and got left out of the National Championship game picture as the #3 team in the country behind Alabama and Texas (Texas had to kick a 46 yard FG as time expired to beat Nebraska in the Big 12 title game). Their reward for that was more or less a slap in the face by making them play Boise again in the Fiesta Bowl. It was a sloppy game really by both teams but Boise pulled out a few tricks from the Petersen bag of tricks (fake punt, etc.) that worked like a charm and got Boise the 17-10 victory.
In 2010, TCU played with a bit of a chip on their shoulder, went undefeated, got a legit game this time in the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin and won. Sort of validated the run that they had made.
The 2011 season was a bit of a transition season in that there was a new promising QB in Casey Pachall and the mid-season announcement of moving to the Big 12 during the conference realignment fever that went on during that time. Boise had also moved into the MWC at that point and TCU won at Boise.
As TCU climbed the ladder during this run, they began getting better and better players. However, as they were still in the MWC, some of these players had red flags on them that were having them fall off the radar of the top schools. Patterson being one of those coaches that feels like he could straighten any kid out probably took chances on a few guys that he couldn't. During the offseason of 2012, the following happened:
http://espn.go.com/ncf/story/_/id/7577881/tcu-horned-frogs-football-players-arrested-drug-sweep which is a major contributor to the arrest record on the thread regarding schools with the most arrests in the last however many years that the Cougs lead. Also during this time period, as TCU moved into the Big 12 and opened up some recruiting doors that were not there before, there became more noise about higher end recruits visiting TCU, seeing the drug culture that was in place, and deciding to go elsewhere. These events led Patterson to really cleanse the program from some of the bigger problems and take a far more active role in curbing the behaviors.
In 2012, TCUs first year in the Big 12, TCU started the season 5-1. At the end of this stretch, Pachall "left" school for the rest of the semester to enter into rehab and was replaced by a freshman named Trevone Boykin. TCU finished the rest of the regular season 2-4 (with losses in 3OT, @ #3 KState, and by 7 at home to Oklahoma). They lost a bowl game to Michigan State by a point.
For 2013, Pachall returned to the program and was the established starting QB. To get Boykin's athleticism on the field, he moved to WR at the beginning of the year. Pachall got hurt early in the season and it completely screwed up the entire season as there wasn't an adequate backup QB situation established. Boykin got moved back to QB after the injury but predictably wasn't prepared as he wasn't taking enough snaps or reps during the camp and the season. TCU went 4-8 on the year and 2-7 in conference. On the surface, this was a terrible year ... but if you looked below the surface, you saw a reason for optimism. In conference, they averaged only 19 points per game (many of the higher point totals came after Pachall came back later in the year healthy). Defensively, which has been pointed out as Patterson's calling card, they averaged giving up just under 26 points per game. As we saw last year with Miley Cyrus as QB, when you have an offense that isn't giving you much to work with, it can be a challenge to maintain a solid defense without the damn eventually breaking.
Heading into 2014, TCU got a 5th year senior transfer QB from Texas A&M that was SUPPOSED to be the guy. However Boykin beat him out during camp. New coordinators were brought in to fix some of the offensive shortcomings (but in my mind, really to straighten out and normalize the QB play - which was really only an issue for TCU in 2012-2013 as the play really fell off from Pachall - for those not familiar with Pachall as a QB, think Cody Pickett). Last year I think most know about how successful TCU was offensively and that's setting the stage for 2015.
The topic that isn't getting talked about much for TCU heading into 2015 is not only the number of returning starters that they have, but how many of them are seniors. Remember that the rumors of TCU heading into the Big 12 started in the 2011 and 2012 recruiting classes. Essentially, what TCU is experiencing right now is the uptick in the advancements of their recruiting combined with their traditionally strong player development. When you compare that to Washington, Petersen's getting an uptick in players that he's able to recruit compared to Boise and will be combining that with strong player development.
So why did I go through all of that history of TCU over the last 10 years? It's because it is very similar to what Petersen went through at Boise and I find it beyond coincidental the number of times that TCU and Boise crossed paths over the last 10 years with the overwhelming conclusion being that the difference in the programs (at least before TCU moved into the Big 12) was very slim. From a recruiting standpoint, you'd expect that TCU had slightly better players over that time frame than Boise did yet Boise played them toe to toe. I, and many on this board, have a very strong opinion of Patterson as a coach. It was impossible for me to not share that same opinion of Petersen the coach as a result.
While Petersen probably inherited a similar base (with a few higher end players) at Washington last year as what Patterson probably had to work with in the 2012-2013 time period, there's some key areas that are worth noting:
First, below average QB play sunk TCU its first two years in the Big 12 and play well below their capabilities. In fact, a common commentary that I would hear was that TCU lacked the players to play in the Big 12 (even though their historical record playing power conference teams spoke for itself and disproved the theory). Last year, it's very easy to find at least 3 games (excluding the bowl game) on Washington's schedule (Stanford, Arizona, and Arizona St) where the deficiencies at QB did not directly contribute to the loss. That's the difference right there between an 8-5 regular season and an 11-2 regular season. Very different narrative if you switch those games heading into this season.
Second, the path that TCU has shown over the last 3+ years from getting the pickup in Big 12 recruiting combined with player development is a key measuring stick for where Washington is at. The 2012 season for TCU mirrors the 2014 season for UW in my mind. Subpar QB play bringing down a strong supporting cast. Play a lot of close games that turn into some losses. Leave the season with the feeling that you could/should have done more. In 2013, TCU's QB problems completely get exposed and the youth on the roster went through some growing pains. I fully expect that this will be the case for Washington in 2015. As you look through Washington's 2 deeps, you're going to see a situation you have a number of young starters (notably on both sides of the lines) that have talent but are going to give uneven performances. We should expect to see some uneven performances from the QB position during the year (particularly so if it is Browning) but the reps will be vital to long term performance. We should also expect to see Washington play its best football to close out the 2015 season. Chest has already called out the Arizona State game as a potential upset for us and I agree 100% with that ... and again the 2013 TCU season is a great guide for us. TCU's last 4 games in 2013 included a 3 point OT loss to West Virginia, a win at Iowa State, a 2 point loss at KState on a last second FG, and a 3 point home loss to a Top 10 Baylor team.
Finally, the path of TCU as they've grown into a more mature team (very veteran defense in 2014, very veteran offense in 2015) is exactly what we should expect to see out of Washington in the 2016-2018 time period. Moreover, if you look at TCU's recruiting at this point it's extremely strong as they are benefiting from their success. It's what we should continue to expect out of Petersen at Washington if he is following a similar blue print.
This year will absolutely be tough at times. The offense may struggle at times. I think the jury is still out on Smith as the OC. We need to see some improvement this year or I do think Petersen needs to strongly consider shaking up his staff a bit. Patterson was very loyal to his staff and still is. However, he also made the moves that he has had to make when the results were not up to par. Pete may be faced with this in the offseason. But seeing what I've seen with TCU, knowing the talent that they had, saying before last season that I thought that they had a real strong shot to win the Big 12 IF they got solid QB play (which they did) gives me strong optimism that the same could be in store for Washington. I see a number of similarities between the situations (and I haven't even got into the general regressions in prior powers Oklahoma and Texas that has also aided TCU and what I think could very well be some regression coming for Oregon and Stanford). IF we can get through this year, then I think we'll be well positioned going forward. This year is going to require patience. It's going to require looking at things beyond the box score and seeing the big picture. There will be a tipping point coming in this program in the near future. It probably won't be this year. For TCU, the tipping point was beating Oklahoma last year to let them know that they really had turned the corner. For Washington that tipping point may be a November game this year or an early 2016 game. But when you see it, you'll know it.
