Tariffs raises costs for US households by $1200 on average!!

This hot q3 prediction is driven by capex from investment being deployed, which was waiting for the R&D tax cuts to be continued from the BIg Beautiful Bill. The tariff trade stuff is gonna be immaterial here.
 
Agree to disagree. Companies ceased their spends in Q1 and started loosening up. When the full year comes out, you're gonna see that it is on par with the trajectory with how the economy was already doing.
 
HuskyBuck said:
Agree to disagree. Companies ceased their spends in Q1 and started loosening up. When the full year comes out, you're gonna see that it is on par with the trajectory with how the economy was already doing.
Click to expand...
lol
 
Low level retail PM condescends to CFO about market forces. You can't make this stuff up
 
Tariffs are a side show. There’s a coming balance sheet crises coming for tech though around how they are determining useful life of all of these assets for GAAP reporting. Big write-downs coming. But that’s for another day to deal with.
 
Bob_C said:
This hot q3 prediction is driven by capex from investment being deployed, which was waiting for the R&D tax cuts to be continued from the BIg Beautiful Bill. The tariff trade stuff is gonna be immaterial here.
Click to expand...
I was specifically told by resident economist @HHusky Q3 was going to be when the wheels come off.
Ftr I actually agree with @HuskyBuck that budget spends were backloaded. A lot of cash sat on the sidelines while the democrats and media screamed that tariffs would result in recession. Gotta remember how out of touch the administrative class is. EOY is here and everyone is trying to spend money before they get their budget slashed YOY. Happens every year but this is larger.
Just goes to show the weak summer numbers were artificially created by chicken Littles.
Not the only factor, I don’t disagree with @Bob_C but I can see both.
Another factor is growth numbers being dragged down by G spending and employment cuts. Private sector is more than offsetting it however which is fantastic news looking forward.
As much as politically id love it you can't do austerity all at once. You gotta wind down fed spending at a rate the private sector can offset.
 
Cash on the sidelines was incentivized to come in because of trade deals and the certainty of R&D spending tax treatment being confirmed as extended in July.
 
UW_Doog_Bot said:
Bob_C said:
This hot q3 prediction is driven by capex from investment being deployed, which was waiting for the R&D tax cuts to be continued from the BIg Beautiful Bill. The tariff trade stuff is gonna be immaterial here.
Click to expand...
I was specifically told by resident economist @HHusky Q3 was going to be when the wheels come off.
Ftr I actually agree with @HuskyBuck that budget spends were backloaded. A lot of cash sat on the sidelines while the democrats and media screamed that tariffs would result in recession. Gotta remember how out of touch the administrative class is. EOY is here and everyone is trying to spend money before they get their budget slashed YOY. Happens every year but this is larger.
Just goes to show the weak summer numbers were artificially created by chicken Littles.
Not the only factor, I don’t disagree with @Bob_C but I can see both.
Another factor is growth numbers being dragged down by G spending and employment cuts. Private sector is more than offsetting it however which is fantastic news looking forward.
As much as politically id love it you can't do austerity all at once. You gotta wind down fed spending at a rate the private sector can offset.
Click to expand...
We'll see.
How much will you celebrate if it takes until Q4 2025?
That's now, you know.
 
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Thats why the numbers are for Q3
When you predicted disaster
There wont be any numbers because of the shut down
 
I do think there is an AI bubble which is a much bigger problem than anything we are talking about. You are already hearing about it with Open AI wanting government guarantees on its contracts with other businesses. Winners and losers are always fine, but the amount of money out there will create systemic issues when the losers bankers have big holes. We might go into real revolution if we bail them out.
Long term, Elon is taking about a world where the marginal cost of everything is approaching zero. Sounds great and all and maybe it could be true. But if it is true then the valuations on everything are insanely off. If the marginal cost and thus the prices are close to zero, then any investment is also worth close to nothing.
 
UW_Doog_Bot said:
Bob_C said:
This hot q3 prediction is driven by capex from investment being deployed, which was waiting for the R&D tax cuts to be continued from the BIg Beautiful Bill. The tariff trade stuff is gonna be immaterial here.
Click to expand...
I was specifically told by resident economist @HHusky Q3 was going to be when the wheels come off.
Ftr I actually agree with @HuskyBuck that budget spends were backloaded. A lot of cash sat on the sidelines while the democrats and media screamed that tariffs would result in recession. Gotta remember how out of touch the administrative class is. EOY is here and everyone is trying to spend money before they get their budget slashed YOY. Happens every year but this is larger.
Just goes to show the weak summer numbers were artificially created by chicken Littles.
Not the only factor, I don’t disagree with @Bob_C but I can see both.
Another factor is growth numbers being dragged down by G spending and employment cuts. Private sector is more than offsetting it however which is fantastic news looking forward.
As much as politically id love it you can't do austerity all at once. You gotta wind down fed spending at a rate the private sector can offset.
Click to expand...
Cucky probably got the info from the bathroom wall down at the Toe Tapper Tavern and Buggery where the Dazzler hangs.
 
Bob_C said:
I do think there is an AI bubble which is a much bigger problem than anything we are talking about. You are already hearing about it with Open AI wanting government guarantees on its contracts with other businesses. Winners and losers are always fine, but the amount of money out there will create systemic issues when the losers bankers have big holes. We might go into real revolution if we bail them out.
Long term, Elon is taking about a world where the marginal cost of everything is approaching zero. Sounds great and all and maybe it could be true. But if it is true then the valuations on everything are insanely off. If the marginal cost and thus the prices are close to zero, then any investment is also worth close to nothing.
Click to expand...
If the marginal rate on produced goods closes in on zero then the cost on anything that is finite or hard to produce will skyrocket.
Ex. Authentic Picasso currently worth 50k widgets will now be worth limit infinity widgets
Ai is indeed in a massive bubble, so is housing. Whether they can trigger systemic downturns when they pop will remain to be seen.
Hence why it's a good thing the private sector is doing as well as it is.
 
HHusky said:
UW_Doog_Bot said:
Bob_C said:
This hot q3 prediction is driven by capex from investment being deployed, which was waiting for the R&D tax cuts to be continued from the BIg Beautiful Bill. The tariff trade stuff is gonna be immaterial here.
Click to expand...
I was specifically told by resident economist @HHusky Q3 was going to be when the wheels come off.
Ftr I actually agree with @HuskyBuck that budget spends were backloaded. A lot of cash sat on the sidelines while the democrats and media screamed that tariffs would result in recession. Gotta remember how out of touch the administrative class is. EOY is here and everyone is trying to spend money before they get their budget slashed YOY. Happens every year but this is larger.
Just goes to show the weak summer numbers were artificially created by chicken Littles.
Not the only factor, I don’t disagree with @Bob_C but I can see both.
Another factor is growth numbers being dragged down by G spending and employment cuts. Private sector is more than offsetting it however which is fantastic news looking forward.
As much as politically id love it you can't do austerity all at once. You gotta wind down fed spending at a rate the private sector can offset.
Click to expand...
We'll see.
How much will you celebrate if it takes until Q4 2025?
That's now, you know.
Click to expand...
Have you liquidated your assets and shorted the market yet?
Your talk is cheap when your actions show where you actually stand.
At least Buck was serious when he said he lost 25% of his net worth.
 
I do think social unrest, war and/or a financial crisis would get in the way of that ever becoming a reality.
 
RaceBannon said:
Thats why the numbers are for Q3
When you predicted disaster
There wont be any numbers because of the shut down
Click to expand...
I told you we would be lucky to see above 2% (which is MILES from predicting "disaster", Phyllis)
We may turn out to have been lucky . . . last quarter.
God bless us all, everyone.
 
UW_Doog_Bot said:
HHusky said:
UW_Doog_Bot said:
Bob_C said:
This hot q3 prediction is driven by capex from investment being deployed, which was waiting for the R&D tax cuts to be continued from the BIg Beautiful Bill. The tariff trade stuff is gonna be immaterial here.
Click to expand...
I was specifically told by resident economist @HHusky Q3 was going to be when the wheels come off.
Ftr I actually agree with @HuskyBuck that budget spends were backloaded. A lot of cash sat on the sidelines while the democrats and media screamed that tariffs would result in recession. Gotta remember how out of touch the administrative class is. EOY is here and everyone is trying to spend money before they get their budget slashed YOY. Happens every year but this is larger.
Just goes to show the weak summer numbers were artificially created by chicken Littles.
Not the only factor, I don’t disagree with @Bob_C but I can see both.
Another factor is growth numbers being dragged down by G spending and employment cuts. Private sector is more than offsetting it however which is fantastic news looking forward.
As much as politically id love it you can't do austerity all at once. You gotta wind down fed spending at a rate the private sector can offset.
Click to expand...
We'll see.
How much will you celebrate if it takes until Q4 2025?
That's now, you know.
Click to expand...
Have you liquidated your assets and shorted the market yet?
Your talk is cheap when your actions show where you actually stand.
At least Buck was serious when he said he lost 25% of his net worth.
Click to expand...
The market has had a bad few days in a row now. No, I haven't reacted in panic. I did take some profits a few weeks ago when the exuberance seemed especially irrational. I put a little of that back into the market today and yesterday. But I'm keeping some powder dry for the big declines.
The bad news for you gals is that it's only the stock market that has left the top 10% feeling flush. And it's only the top 10% who are doing the big consumer spending in Daddy's economy.
 
Yeah, the dazzler has always been concerned about the working men and women of America. Like in early 2020 when we were having the biggest real wage increases in decades and the dazzler hated that and supported the chicom crud lockdowns and mandates that crushed the working American middle class. Then he supported the dementia patient's huge increase in US energy costs with his Make Inflation Greater Act. That's our mythical MBA in action.
 
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