See the early favorites in Vegas to win the 2018 college football national title
- Thread starter DerekJohnson
- Start date
ExtraChrisB
New Fish
40-1? Shit they were 45-1 this time last year. That's some damn good value looking at some of the teams in front of em.
Tequilla
Active poster
I got us at 50-1 back in March ...
40-1 to me is good value because the difference between UW and USC isn't the gap that they are showing.
For as down as the Big 12 was this year, it will be a beast next year. Everybody is going to throw the money on Oklahoma and Texas ... the smarter money would be on Okie Lite and Kansas St.
40-1 to me is good value because the difference between UW and USC isn't the gap that they are showing.
For as down as the Big 12 was this year, it will be a beast next year. Everybody is going to throw the money on Oklahoma and Texas ... the smarter money would be on Okie Lite and Kansas St.
DugtheDoog
New Fish
We have the same odds as VA Tech and UGA? Those are some pretty FS oddsmakers. Tejas with significantly better odds than we do?
huskyfavre
New Fish
oddsmakers are not FS.
Very disturbing to see Vegas has us down there.
EsophagealFeces
Well-known poster
Texas? Louisville? Penn State? L O fucking L. Such fags, bookies. UW does seem like a solid value.
allpurpleallgold
New Fish
Odds should have been worse with Brownsocks at qb.
FremontTroll
New Fish
Just like I told you last year these are all shit bets and you would be better off just taking the money line every game. Roll over half your winnings to the next week and bank half.
FremontTroll
New Fish
No this means nothing. It isn't a real market because you can't take the other side of the bet.
All this is is basically a popularity index. Real bettors rarely play these markets because the juics is so high and you have to lock your money up for a year. Its basically just fans betting on their own teams.
huskyfavre
New Fish
Vegas is clearly happy to take money on the Dawgs at 40/1. You are correct about futures juice, but that's precisely why 40/1 on the Dawgs is especially worrisome - didn't need to be that high unless they were trying to drive big (for futures anyway) bets on the Dawgs....Vegas clearly wants people to get their $$ in early on the Dawgs fresh off the CFP appearance...
Tequilla
Active poster
No question ...
I'm just saying that if you have a desire to put $20 or something rather insignificant on a long shot or two, looking at value plays (relatively) makes sense.
If books were open universally, the betting each game and taking the winnings going forward is a far better play
DugtheDoog
New Fish
So if I say my doctor is really fucking stupid, you'd come rushing to tell me that doctors are not FS? I didn't say oddsmakers are FS. I said THESE ones are. And the market hasn't had time for self-correction yet. Like mentioned in the thread, you can't take the other side of the bet so it's pointless. Right now it's just a popularity contest.
I think UW should have fairly low odds to make the playoffs but still pretty high to win the two games
Pitchfork51
Active poster
Well wooching is the heart and soul of it.
huskyfavre
New Fish
Anyone who thinks Vegas oddsmakers are FS is FS and anyone who thinks there is *any* value in futures bets is FS. Anyone who bets futures is FS.
HTH.
(edited to avoid hurt feelings)
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MikeSeaver
New Fish
Sounds like the results on the field are not indicative of where both programs stand.