Second round playoff predictions

I got the coveted up AND down vote in one thread from APAG. I am a special snowflake.
 
I got the coveted up AND down vote in one thread from APAG. I am a special snowflake.
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Only thing that would be better is if you got the same in a basketball thread from EdwinUW
 
It's not what the Chicago bigs can do per se by their ability to shoot the ball or score in the low post as much as what they will be able to do on the glass. Both Noah and Gibson are very strong rebounders.

Take your prediction that a smaller guy can guard Noah (let's say either LBJ or Marion). You are absolutely right that Noah is a terrific screener. Put LBJ in a position to guard him. Noah will go out and put a solid screen on which usually results in a strong hedge from a big to allow the guard to get back in position. LBJ on the other hand is far more likely to direct switch in such a situation due to his skill set and an unfamiliarity with a strong hedge and then switching back onto his man. The end result here will be Noah then being guarded by a guard and whether the ball goes to him directly or the resulting rotation will end up with him being in tremendous rebounding position against someone that is probably 6-10 inches shorter than him.

It's not going to be the direct scoring but instead the rebounding and ability to control the paint on both ends of the court that are going to be a tremendous advantage for Chicago in this series.
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Chicago finished in the bottom half of the league in rebounding. They are not the strong rebounders you think they are.

Also your Lebron switch logic makes no sense. Yes that's most likely what the Cavs will do, switch. But how exactly does the "resulting rotation" leave Noah in tremendous rebounding position? That's the whole point of switching, there is no rotation when you do it. You don't give up any positioning, that's why teams do it.

The offensive rebounding idea is nice in theory but Indiana tried it the last 3 years against Lebrons Heat.
 
Love helps the Cavs stretch the court ... much like Bosh did. It's not even about how much production Love/Bosh have playing with LBJ, it's the threat of what they can do that pulls guys just an extra step away from the lane to open up the driving lanes to the basket.

The only way that the Cavs can get the spacing against the Bulls would be to play LBJ exclusively at the 4 and surround him with 3 shooters. The problem is that the remaining bigs for the Cavs (particularly Thompson) are more or less non-factors when it comes to being able to hit mid-range shots so it turns into what LBJ had with the Heat with Birdman and guys like Joel Anthony allowing bigs to help clog up the lane. If you recall when he was with Miami, when guys like Birdman were on the floor, if he wasn't getting offensive boards or easy baskets off of dives, the offense tended to clog up.

I also would expect that the Cavs will really struggle with guarding the bigs of Chicago in this series, particularly if they go small. If they stay big to matchup, then that will force LBJ into being much more of a jump shooter in this series. Best chance that Cleveland has IMO is to go small and cause more problems for Chicago (notably strong shooting from 3) than Chicago is able to cause from Cleveland.
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Miamis offense only clogged up when it had a big that couldn't shoot and Wade on the floor. And even then it was only when Wade wasn't playing at a high level. Lebron with Birdman and 3 shooters were some of the Heats best lineups.
 
So what APAG is saying is that LBJ switching onto a guard isn't going to compromise a defense because of the guard's ability to penetrate causing future rotational problems.

And I also like to use the thought that the Bulls can't rebound by looking at regular season stats ... particularly when it's well known that the Bulls coasted through the regular season in many respects not to mention had a number of injuries. I also like to ignore that the player with the most double doubles on the year was Pau Gasol.

And offensive rebounding does have a major factor. The Pacers took Miami to 6 or 7 games each year with a roster that wasn't as good top to bottom as this Bulls team.

And BTW, what I'm seeing right now is that the Bulls are controlling the paint and able to consistently compromise the Bulls defense with dribble penetration.
 
Love helps the Cavs stretch the court ... much like Bosh did. It's not even about how much production Love/Bosh have playing with LBJ, it's the threat of what they can do that pulls guys just an extra step away from the lane to open up the driving lanes to the basket.

The only way that the Cavs can get the spacing against the Bulls would be to play LBJ exclusively at the 4 and surround him with 3 shooters. The problem is that the remaining bigs for the Cavs (particularly Thompson) are more or less non-factors when it comes to being able to hit mid-range shots so it turns into what LBJ had with the Heat with Birdman and guys like Joel Anthony allowing bigs to help clog up the lane. If you recall when he was with Miami, when guys like Birdman were on the floor, if he wasn't getting offensive boards or easy baskets off of dives, the offense tended to clog up.

I also would expect that the Cavs will really struggle with guarding the bigs of Chicago in this series, particularly if they go small. If they stay big to matchup, then that will force LBJ into being much more of a jump shooter in this series. Best chance that Cleveland has IMO is to go small and cause more problems for Chicago (notably strong shooting from 3) than Chicago is able to cause from Cleveland.
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Miamis offense only clogged up when it had a big that couldn't shoot and Wade on the floor. And even then it was only when Wade wasn't playing at a high level. Lebron with Birdman and 3 shooters were some of the Heats best lineups.
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You basically made the point I was making. When LBJ plays the 4 and he has a non-shooting big he's fine. But if he's playing the 3 with 2 bigs clogging up the floor, that's a problem.

If he plays the 4 in this series, I don't think the Cavs will have enough in the lane defensively. If he plays the 3 and they plug the lane defensively, the offense will get too clogged and turn into a bundle of jumpers.
 
So what APAG is saying is that LBJ switching onto a guard isn't going to compromise a defense because of the guard's ability to penetrate causing future rotational problems.

And I also like to use the thought that the Bulls can't rebound by looking at regular season stats ... particularly when it's well known that the Bulls coasted through the regular season in many respects not to mention had a number of injuries. I also like to ignore that the player with the most double doubles on the year was Pau Gasol.

And offensive rebounding does have a major factor. The Pacers took Miami to 6 or 7 games each year with a roster that wasn't as good top to bottom as this Bulls team.

And BTW, what I'm seeing right now is that the Bulls are controlling the paint and able to consistently compromise the Bulls defense with dribble penetration.
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Tom Thibodeau teams don't coast. Do you even NBA bro?
 
So you missed the memo during the season where people were questioning whether or not Thibs was losing the Bulls, discussing options for next year's coach (i.e. the Mayor of Ames), and general sluggish play from the Bulls?

BTW, wouldn't you say that the Bulls shooting 56% so far (and Cavs at 42%) would be a sign that the Bulls are controlling the paint?
 
I'd say the shooting percentages are a sign that Chicago made jump shots and Cleveland missed them. Chicago shot 55% from 3 and the Cavs shot 27%.

Rebounding, which you said Chicago would kill Cleveland on, was dead even. The exact same amount of offe eive rebounds for each team.

You're either not even watching the game or you're twisting what happened to fit into the points you made.
 
I'd say the shooting percentages are a sign that Chicago made jump shots and Cleveland missed them. Chicago shot 55% from 3 and the Cavs shot 27%.
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This is the FS statement of the day ...

High 3 point percentages are indicative of good ball movement, compromising a defense, and resulting in open shots. Low 3 point percentages are often the result of taking contested and forced 3 point shots.

If you think the difference between good 3 point shooting and not is simply some went in and some didn't, you fucking don't know what you're talking about.
 
Rebounding, which you said Chicago would kill Cleveland on, was dead even. The exact same amount of offe eive rebounds for each team.
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On the surface, that's a great point. Really showing me. But again, it's absolutely lacking.

Bulls were +3 in rebounding tonight. LBJ had 15 rebounds to keep the battle close to even.

So let me ask you the following questions:

1) In a game where the Cavs clearly needed more scoring without Love, LBJ took only 22 shots and scored 19 points with only 2 FTs. How much of a toll did his need to play defense take out of his ability to score?

2) Shumpert took 17 shots and scored 22 points to help pick up the slack for what LBJ couldn't give offensively. Do you really think that he's going to give you 22 points a game going forward?

If you can't see that Cleveland is in massive trouble unless you get probably 60+ points per game from LBJ and Irving, then I can't help you.
 
I'd say the shooting percentages are a sign that Chicago made jump shots and Cleveland missed them. Chicago shot 55% from 3 and the Cavs shot 27%.
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This is the FS statement of the day ...

High 3 point percentages are indicative of good ball movement, compromising a defense, and resulting in open shots. Low 3 point percentages are often the result of taking contested and forced 3 point shots.

If you think the difference between good 3 point shooting and not is simply some went in and some didn't, you fucking don't know what you're talking about.
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If you were talking about a large sample size you would be correct. But we're talking about a single game. Many times in a single game one team will just make shots and the other will miss because randomness.
 
Rebounding, which you said Chicago would kill Cleveland on, was dead even. The exact same amount of offe eive rebounds for each team.
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On the surface, that's a great point. Really showing me. But again, it's absolutely lacking.

Bulls were +3 in rebounding tonight. LBJ had 15 rebounds to keep the battle close to even.

So let me ask you the following questions:

1) In a game where the Cavs clearly needed more scoring without Love, LBJ took only 22 shots and scored 19 points with only 2 FTs. How much of a toll did his need to play defense take out of his ability to score?

2) Shumpert took 17 shots and scored 22 points to help pick up the slack for what LBJ couldn't give offensively. Do you really think that he's going to give you 22 points a game going forward?

If you can't see that Cleveland is in massive trouble unless you get probably 60+ points per game from LBJ and Irving, then I can't help you.
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+3 rebounding because they shot 10% higher than the Cavs. Again you said Chicago would kill them on the offensive glass. How did that work out? That was your big point. Noah and Gibson would destroy them on the glass. Gasol led the league in double doubles. No part of this game came down to rebounding. None of it.

I can't even deal with you anymore. I'd rather argue politics with d2d. At least he makes a good point on accident occasionally.
 
So the point you made about a single game sample size on 3 point shooting I could make just as easily about rebounding.

Do you think that LBJ getting 15 boards tonight in any way, shape, or form contributed to a bit of a lackluster offensive game by him?
 
Rebounding, which you said Chicago would kill Cleveland on, was dead even. The exact same amount of offe eive rebounds for each team.
Click to expand...

On the surface, that's a great point. Really showing me. But again, it's absolutely lacking.

Bulls were +3 in rebounding tonight. LBJ had 15 rebounds to keep the battle close to even.

So let me ask you the following questions:

1) In a game where the Cavs clearly needed more scoring without Love, LBJ took only 22 shots and scored 19 points with only 2 FTs. How much of a toll did his need to play defense take out of his ability to score?

2) Shumpert took 17 shots and scored 22 points to help pick up the slack for what LBJ couldn't give offensively. Do you really think that he's going to give you 22 points a game going forward?

If you can't see that Cleveland is in massive trouble unless you get probably 60+ points per game from LBJ and Irving, then I can't help you.
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Point #2 is FS. Players step up or play shitty sometimes. Shump may not score 22 again, but LeBron will play better. Thompson will likely score more than 4 in future games, Smith will return after game 2, etc. they don't need Shumpert to score 22 every game.

The Cavs are in trouble without Love. The Cavs have shitty depth. Relying on old, washed up players like Miller, Marion, and maybe Perkins is not a good formula. It reminds me of OKC with Fisher and Perkins playing 20+ minutes in big playoff games.
 
The point about Shumpert is tied into the fact that you need huge games from Irving and LBJ. You probably aren't getting 22 from Shumpert again. You might get a little more from Thompson ... but probably not 20 points. When I look at the roster minus Irving and LBJ, they are going to struggle to get 40+ points per game. That's just the reality. To get to 100 LBJ and Irving need to get 60+. Barring that, the Cavs need to find a way to keep the Bulls in the 80s.
 
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