The World Cup trophy is unveiled last week at Victory Hall at the Boxyard in Seattle. From left: Andrea Kendell, president and CEO of Swire Coca-Cola USA; Beth Knox, president and CEO of the Seattle Sports Commission;... (Erika Schultz / The Seattle Times)
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By
Megan Ulu-Lani Boyanton
and
David Kroman
Seattle Times reporters
Seattle’s tourism industry continues to have high hopes for what this summer’s FIFA World Cup matches could do for the city. But because the mega soccer tournament will take place against a backdrop of global unrest, once-rosy economic projections have drooped.
Summer is usually when Seattle’s hoteliers, restaurants and workers receive the strongest boost in business. It’s especially needed this year: International conflict and aggressive political messaging has soured international attitudes — including from our northern neighbor — toward the red, white and blue and meant fewer visitors to the Emerald City.
As such, the city’s boosters and economic forecasters slashed their earlier World Cup predictions by almost 10%.
That’s still more optimistic than the projections of some other World Cup destinations. Atlanta’s home state and the San Francisco Bay Area are expecting between $500 and $600 million in economic benefit.
Michael Woody, Visit Seattle’s chief engagement officer, chalks that up to the city’s walkability, making it easy for visitors to meander from hotels to games, fan events and other attractions. He said other cities don’t have stadiums in such prime locations.
However, north of Seattle, Vancouver, B.C., is also a World Cup host city, giving Canadians an alternative that doesn’t require travel into the U.S. British Columbia stands to gain more than $1 billion in extra visitor spending, per a five-year estimate by the province, the city of Vancouver and BC Pavilion Corporation.
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In Seattle, businesses and hotels have a lot at stake.
A neighborhood mainstay for two decades, Tat’s Delicatessen in Pioneer Square is bracing for a summer rush fueled by World Cup fans. Prep work includes remodeling the dining room, streamlining kitchen and online ordering processes, and working with Georgetown Brewing to ensure a consistent inventory of draft beers.
“As a city, we’ve never gone through this before, so something of this scale is a little bit unpredictable,” said Mara Tatman, catering and operations manager.
Starting June 15, the city will host six matches.
Seattle neighborhoods prepare for the World Cup
Businesses in neighborhoods near Lumen Field are readying for the influx of summer visitors coming for the FIFA World Cup matches.
Seattle GeoData (Map by Fiona Martin / The Seattle Times)
‘A change in the mix’
Visit Seattle first anticipated that the World Cup would result in more than $100 million in direct state and local tax revenue, and the tournament would support almost 21,000 jobs.The forecast includes anticipated visitor spending at hotels, restaurants, shops and more, on top of tax revenue.
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At the end of last year, Visit Seattle made international marketing a priority, with a focus on luring tourists from the U.K., Canada, Australia, Ireland and India.
“International visitors typically stay longer and spend more than domestic ones,” a spokesperson said.
Teams representing the U.S., Belgium, Egypt, Australia and Iran are currently slated to play in the Emerald City. The U.S. match against Australia will likely draw the largest crowd, according to predictions made during a Visit Seattle event in December.
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The expected number of foreign soccer fans has declined in large part because of actions taken by President Donald Trump. This includes Trump’s ramped-up immigration enforcement and threats to take over Canada and Greenland. Tourism from Canada has dropped precipitously.
Most recently, Trump launched a war against Iran, collaborating with Israel in the conflict. The Iranian team is slated to play in Seattle, though it initially attempted to have the game moved to Mexico after warfare was waged.
As of now, the players will push forward with their stateside matches. While the U.S., Israel and Iran recently reached a rocky ceasefire in their Middle Eastern conflict, traveling for those games might remain unappealing to fans.
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Visit Seattle now anticipates the event could bring in up to $846 million, puts state and local tax revenue at about $96 million and estimates job support at close to 20,000. It pinpoints direct business sales at $593 million.
The organization expects tourists from across the U.S. to make up for the loss of foreign travelers.
“So there’s not a drop in forecasted visitors, just a change in the mix,” a spokesperson said.
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‘Certainly a concern’
Jan Duras, chief economist for Seattle’s Office of Economic and Revenue Forecasts, told City Council members Friday that there’s “certainly a concern” surrounding people’s eagerness to attend the World Cup here. It’s caused his team to back off some revenue projections.Specifically, expectations for any taxes tied to tourism — including short-term rentals, tickets and commercial parking — have all seen modest downward revisions.
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Councilmember Dan Strauss referred to it as fair.
“I’d like to have a pessimistic outlook at this moment, and then to be surprised later this year when the actuals come in that we have, in fact, welcomed more than we predicted,” he said.
This year counts as the first time Seattle will serve as a host city in the World Cup. The U.S. previously held the tournament in 1994.
This year, 11 U.S. metro areas are hosting World Cup matches, and the economic projections vary widely, though it’s worth noting that economic projections don’t necessarily follow a standard measurement across cities and sources.
Georgia expects to reap more than $500 million in economic impact during the tournament, according to February predictions by the World Affairs Council of Atlanta.
In California, the Bay Area anticipates $555 million, per a February news release by the state.
New York and New Jersey were forecast to make a whopping $3.3 billion together in economic impact, per last year’s numbers by company Tourism Economics. However, the Hotel Association of New York City recently told Forbes that demand has not met expectations so far.
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Other host cities are exceptions to the lower estimates.
The Los Angeles FIFA World Cup 26 Host Committee revised its earlier projections up from $594 million to $892 million.
‘Notable increase in demand’
So far, Seattle’s hotels are optimistic.In Pioneer Square, north of Lumen Field, the average cost of a hotel room has already skyrocketed for the city’s first match between Belgium and Egypt.
CitizenM Seattle Pioneer Square, which offers four-star accommodations, advertised guest rooms Tuesday for a nightly minimum of $1,320, with taxes and fees. It’s a 467% jump from the nightly total cost, $233, for the same rooms in May.
For a one-night stay in a room with a double bed at Best Western Plus Pioneer Square Hotel Downtown, a visitor for the World Cup can expect to shell out $804, taxes and fees included, to the three-star hotel. The suite costs $211 in May.
Visit Seattle expects the city’s hotels will hit max occupancy on match days, with high occupancies on the days before and after the matches as well, a spokesperson said.
The assumptions are based on Expedia data tied to the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, when 83% of hotel bookings were made within 60 days of the tournament, per Visit Seattle.
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But still, several hotels have space to offer fans.
With two months until the World Cup begins, the Alexis Royal Sonesta Hotel Seattle, a four-star in the central business district, is watching demand — and occupancy — climb, per general manager Senada Hajric.
Craig Schafer, owner of boutique hotels Hotel Ändra downtown and Pike Place Market’s Inn at the Market, called the situation “pretty fluid right now.”
“Bottom line is we always have great business in June and July,” he said. “The World Cup is just icing on the cake. But the more icing the better.”
People stroll through Occidental Park in the Pioneer Square neighborhood, a short walk from the World Cup matches at Lumen Field, dubbed “Seattle Stadium” for the soccer series. (Nick Wagner / The Seattle Times)
Excitement builds for businesses
Businesses in the neighborhoods near Lumen Field, which will be dubbed “Seattle Stadium” during the World Cup, are readying themselves for the summer excitement.South of the stadium, Sodo will see much of the action.
Event venue Victory Hall at The Boxyard, 1201 First Ave. S., is designated an official fan celebration site, and will host events for supporters of the teams representing Australia, Belgium and Bosnia-Herzegovina.
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“We look forward to the positive economic impact it will bring to the neighborhood,” said Melissa White, senior communications manager at the SODO Business Improvement Area.
Victory Hall at The Boxyard is packed with fans watching the Seahawks play in Super Bowl LX on Feb. 8. (Karen Ducey / The Seattle Times)
Lisa Howard, executive director of nonprofit Alliance for Pioneer Square, sees the World Cup as an opportunity for the neighborhood to turn first-time tourists into repeat visitors.
“If we get that right, the economic impact won’t just be immediate,” she said, “it will help sustain small businesses here well beyond the tournament.”
The Seattle area’s hospitality workers also have a lot riding on the World Cup’s success, according to their union.
Union members have seen cuts to their hours over the winter and spring, said Anita Seth, president of UNITE HERE Local 8. She’s hopeful the World Cup can provide a boost to what’s been a sluggish year.
Seth said she’s nervous, however, that the factors underpinning the tepid year for tourism will bleed into the tournament.
“We are still concerned that the promise of the World Cup may not be met if the Trump administration continues its hostility toward foreign visitors,” she said.
Megan Ulu-Lani Boyanton: 206-652-6373 or mboyanton@seattletimes.com: Megan Ulu-Lani Boyanton is a business reporter at The Seattle Times.
David Kroman: 206-464-3196 or dkroman@seattletimes.com: David Kroman is a reporter at The Seattle Times who covers politics and Seattle City Hall, focusing on the City Council, mayor, city attorney’s office and other city agencies.
