OFFICIAL Rodent Bowl Thread: Beavers @ Gophers

[TierbsHsotBoobs]

You go for 2 because your win probability goes from 90% to 99% if you get it and from 90% to 85% if you miss it.

While you're wrist deep pulling numbers out of your ass dig a little bit deeper and come up with a number for kicking an XP.

Actual numbers, assuming two equal teams, 2 minutes left, and a touchback on the ensuing kickoff. Calculator here:
http://www.pro-football-reference.c...eld=team&yds_from_goal=25&down=1&yds_to_go=10

7 point lead = 89% chance
8 point lead = 93% chance
9 point lead = 97% chance

Personally I think the 97% number is too low because you have to recover an onside kick, but based on the numbers the choice had equal upside and downside.

 

[TierbsHsotBoobs]

yeah put it that way and i can't really argue against it

lol @ the idea of browning and his band of pants-shitting losers rallying back

i retract my previous statement

No you're entirely correct. That OSU was unlikely to score again doesn't weigh one way or the other.

The question is, assuming that by some miracle OSU does score again, whether you'd rather have your 'O' try a 2 pointer to win/tie if they fail
OR
your opponent try a 2 to tie/lose if they fail.

Obviously given the dreck fest offenses involved you'd rather be up the guaranteed 8 than 7/9.

The 8 is worth more than the 9.

That's the dumbest thing I've read in ages.

A two score lead is much better than an eight points lead.

You don't go for two based on what happens if you make it. You go for two based on what happens if you miss it. That's why the coaches up 5 early in the 4th quarter who go for two are idiots.

That kind of loser mentality is the same kind of loser mentality that punts on 4th and 1 from Oregon's 39 yard line.

So you would internet tough guy it and go for 2 when up 5 early in the 4th quarter. Got it.

Here are the numbers, assuming 12 minutes left.
http://www.pro-football-reference.c...eld=team&yds_from_goal=25&down=1&yds_to_go=10

5 point lead = 80%
6 point lead = 84%
7 point lead = 88%

The decision to kick looks like it has equal upside and downside.

 

[TierbsHsotBoobs]

It's a shame Boobs never talks football.

 

[FremontTroll]

You go for 2 because your win probability goes from 90% to 99% if you get it and from 90% to 85% if you miss it.

While you're wrist deep pulling numbers out of your ass dig a little bit deeper and come up with a number for kicking an XP.

Actual numbers, assuming two equal teams, 2 minutes left, and a touchback on the ensuing kickoff. Calculator here:
http://www.pro-football-reference.c...eld=team&yds_from_goal=25&down=1&yds_to_go=10

7 point lead = 89% chance
8 point lead = 93% chance
9 point lead = 97% chance

Personally I think the 97% number is too low because you have to recover an onside kick, but based on the numbers the choice had equal upside and downside.

You just proved my point. If the 2pc try percentage is less than 48-50% (which for the gophers it obviously is) then you kick the damn XP.

 

[TierbsHsotBoobs]

You go for 2 because your win probability goes from 90% to 99% if you get it and from 90% to 85% if you miss it.

While you're wrist deep pulling numbers out of your ass dig a little bit deeper and come up with a number for kicking an XP.

Actual numbers, assuming two equal teams, 2 minutes left, and a touchback on the ensuing kickoff. Calculator here:
http://www.pro-football-reference.c...eld=team&yds_from_goal=25&down=1&yds_to_go=10

7 point lead = 89% chance
8 point lead = 93% chance
9 point lead = 97% chance

Personally I think the 97% number is too low because you have to recover an onside kick, but based on the numbers the choice had equal upside and downside.

You just proved my point. If the 2pc try percentage is less than 48-50% (which for the gophers it obviously is) then you kick the damn XP.

If you're going to call a fucktarded 2 point play like they did, kicking is much better. I'll agree to that. If you're competent, it's a toss-up.

 

[Gladstone]

Assume making a 2 point conversion is the same percentage for both teams.
(Without that it is more complicated.)

You also can assume Oregon State will score a touchdown (if they don't, the decision is meaningless.)

So kick the point (say 100%), give up the touchdown (given), it is 50/50 that you go to OT. Say OT is 50/50. So you have a 75% chance of winning.

Go for two (50% chance) give up the touchdown (given), they kick (0% they miss), go to OT which is 50/50. You have a 75% chance of winning there too.

OR Go for two (50% chance) give up the touchdown (given), they go for 2(50% they fail),. You have a 75% chance of winning (just subbed the 2-pt for OT).

It really doesn't matter in that situation.

 

[TierbsHsotBoobs]

Wow. Take a happy pill. We were 13 point dogs and you're acting like we lost to Sac St or EWU.

 

[FremontTroll]

Assume making a 2 point conversion is the same percentage for both teams.
(Without that it is more complicated.)

You also can assume Oregon State will score a touchdown (if they don't, the decision is meaningless.)

So kick the point (say 100%), give up the touchdown (given), it is 50/50 that you go to OT. Say OT is 50/50. So you have a 75% chance of winning.

Go for two (50% chance) give up the touchdown (given), they kick (0% they miss), go to OT which is 50/50. You have a 75% chance of winning there too.

OR Go for two (50% chance) give up the touchdown (given), they go for 2(50% they fail),. You have a 75% chance of winning (just subbed the 2-pt for OT).

It really doesn't matter in that situation.

And if the 2PC rate is 40% for each team then it is an easy kick.

 

[TierbsHsotBoobs]

Assume making a 2 point conversion is the same percentage for both teams.
(Without that it is more complicated.)

You also can assume Oregon State will score a touchdown (if they don't, the decision is meaningless.)

So kick the point (say 100%), give up the touchdown (given), it is 50/50 that you go to OT. Say OT is 50/50. So you have a 75% chance of winning.

Go for two (50% chance) give up the touchdown (given), they kick (0% they miss), go to OT which is 50/50. You have a 75% chance of winning there too.

OR Go for two (50% chance) give up the touchdown (given), they go for 2(50% they fail),. You have a 75% chance of winning (just subbed the 2-pt for OT).

It really doesn't matter in that situation.

And if the 2PC rate is 40% for each team then it is an easy kick.

If that is your rate, you need a new coaching staff.