Observations of a single basement dweller who's dumb enough to hang out here ten times per day:

[godawgst]

Great story and analysis 1 to ......

One big Reason housing prices are up is after the 07/08 housing crash, Home builders spent the next 3-4 years building about 25% of the new inventory needed to keep up with demographics.

Your comment on true unemployment and what's coming is so spot on. We have 10 million jobs that are gone and not coming back, and with the new work from home economy, many big businesses are 1/2 months away from having a year's worth of data showing them how much more production they got from their people than by being in the office (25% was number from the head of a hedge fund interview). Banks just came out and said the days of keeping people employed thru covid just b/c are over. What this means is for these people they are going to have to have a Hunger Games Mindset when it comes to their jobs. In the past you could see in the office who was pulling their weight and not, so if crap hit the fan, all you had to do was be better than him/her and you were probably safe.

For the stay at homers, they won't be able to see that, or know who is producing what, so to try and not be the person let go, the only thing they can do is produce more and more which just snowballs as now you can't see what your co-workers/competition is doing.

I weekly go into a store that buys pallets of merchandise (from a auction where you can see the outside of the pallet, but what's inside of it is unknown) and the #1 thing they are getting is coming from restaurant distributors who have cases of product they would sell to restaurants and bars that have went poof. Think 5 gallon containers of mustard, salad dressing, relish, etc.

Point is when this all done, the number of un/under employed is going to be much higher than just the 10 million

 

[PurpleThrobber]

Great story and analysis 1 to ......

One big Reason housing prices are up is after the 07/08 housing crash, Home builders spent the next 3-4 years building about 25% of the new inventory needed to keep up with demographics.

Your comment on true unemployment and what's coming is so spot on. We have 10 million jobs that are gone and not coming back, and with the new work from home economy, many big businesses are 1/2 months away from having a year's worth of data showing them how much more production they got from their people than by being in the office (25% was number from the head of a hedge fund interview). Banks just came out and said the days of keeping people employed thru covid just b/c are over. What this means is for these people they are going to have to have a Hunger Games Mindset when it comes to their jobs. In the past you could see in the office who was pulling their weight and not, so if crap hit the fan, all you had to do was be better than him/her and you were probably safe.

For the stay at homers, they won't be able to see that, or know who is producing what, so to try and not be the person let go, the only thing they can do is produce more and more which just snowballs as now you can't see what your co-workers/competition is doing.

I weekly go into a store that buys pallets of merchandise (from a auction where you can see the outside of the pallet, but what's inside of it is unknown) and the #1 thing they are getting is coming from restaurant distributors who have cases of product they would sell to restaurants and bars that have went poof. Think 5 gallon containers of mustard, salad dressing, relish, etc.

Point is when this all done, the number of un/under employed is going to be much higher than just the 10 million

But we'll have lots of tasty condiments....

About all I can add here is that if you're one of the unfortunate ones who got swept out and ain't coming back because of the 2020/2021 whatever (COVID, oil industry getting willfully destroyed, China, TTTTT, etc.), you sure as fuck better be figuring out what skillset will keep you from being in that spot again. Reinvention and training instead of playing Call Of Duty is probably a good way to burn whatever remaining weeks of Unemployment benefits remain.

And if you didn't get whacked, keep your head on a swivel and figure out when the next shoe will drop to avoid the above.

Been there, done that - ain't gonna do it again. The Grim Reaper will go empty handed when he knocks on the Throbber's door.

 

[YellowSnow]

Great story and analysis 1 to ......

One big Reason housing prices are up is after the 07/08 housing crash, Home builders spent the next 3-4 years building about 25% of the new inventory needed to keep up with demographics.

Your comment on true unemployment and what's coming is so spot on. We have 10 million jobs that are gone and not coming back, and with the new work from home economy, many big businesses are 1/2 months away from having a year's worth of data showing them how much more production they got from their people than by being in the office (25% was number from the head of a hedge fund interview). Banks just came out and said the days of keeping people employed thru covid just b/c are over. What this means is for these people they are going to have to have a Hunger Games Mindset when it comes to their jobs. In the past you could see in the office who was pulling their weight and not, so if crap hit the fan, all you had to do was be better than him/her and you were probably safe.

For the stay at homers, they won't be able to see that, or know who is producing what, so to try and not be the person let go, the only thing they can do is produce more and more which just snowballs as now you can't see what your co-workers/competition is doing.

I weekly go into a store that buys pallets of merchandise (from a auction where you can see the outside of the pallet, but what's inside of it is unknown) and the #1 thing they are getting is coming from restaurant distributors who have cases of product they would sell to restaurants and bars that have went poof. Think 5 gallon containers of mustard, salad dressing, relish, etc.

Point is when this all done, the number of un/under employed is going to be much higher than just the 10 million

But we'll have lots of tasty condiments....

About all I can add here is that if you're one of the unfortunate ones who got swept out and ain't coming back because of the 2020/2021 whatever (COVID, oil industry getting willfully destroyed, China, TTTTT, etc.), you sure as fuck better be figuring out what skillset will keep you from being in that spot again. Reinvention and training instead of playing Call Of Duty is probably a good way to burn whatever remaining weeks of Unemployment benefits remain.

And if you didn't get whacked, keep your head on a swivel and figure out when the next shoe will drop to avoid the above.

Been there, done that - ain't gonna do it again. The Grim Reaper will go empty handed when he knocks on the Throbber's door.

My org lost a fair bit of headcount. Pretty rough on those folks. I got lucky but that fear is always hanging over one’s head. I need to find away to monetize my record shoppe.

 

[Fishpo31]

My wife has been a stay at homer for about 10 years, and the screws are tightening. Her company dumped a bunch of warm bodies when the vid hit, but she was #3 in sales (out of 120), so, safe. In the last month, she has been losing her mind, one day wanting to quit, next day maybe not...yada yada. We are too old to re-invent ourselves for new careers, and if we can ride out the next 5 years, we will be free and clear house-wise, and rental wise. We are strictly renting to military families / people, so as long as Uncle Sam's checks don't bounce, we good for now.

We went though 1to's housing scenario to a T, but weren't savvy enough to see the burst coming. We crashed hard, but held on to enough to make it out, after a couple of rough years. I was adamant that "the MAN" would have to pump the bubble back up (gotta keep the game going) and we would come out on the other end, which we did. It was more hope than knowledge, but thankfully I was right, this time.

She has broached buying a "business" (B & B, or a bar / restaurant), and, at our ages, I have firmly said, "NO"...having worked in it when younger, and knowing several who were in and got out. It is no lifestyle I want to be a part of. I am pretty fearful of our daughters' futures, as far as ever owning a house, not to mention job market, but at their ages, they can morph into whatever works, hopefully, cause in about 5 years, I plan on drinking their inheritance on the beaches of Mexico, if there is anything left of it...

 

[IPukeOregonGrellow]

Great story and analysis 1 to ......

One big Reason housing prices are up is after the 07/08 housing crash, Home builders spent the next 3-4 years building about 25% of the new inventory needed to keep up with demographics.

Your comment on true unemployment and what's coming is so spot on. We have 10 million jobs that are gone and not coming back, and with the new work from home economy, many big businesses are 1/2 months away from having a year's worth of data showing them how much more production they got from their people than by being in the office (25% was number from the head of a hedge fund interview). Banks just came out and said the days of keeping people employed thru covid just b/c are over. What this means is for these people they are going to have to have a Hunger Games Mindset when it comes to their jobs. In the past you could see in the office who was pulling their weight and not, so if crap hit the fan, all you had to do was be better than him/her and you were probably safe.

For the stay at homers, they won't be able to see that, or know who is producing what, so to try and not be the person let go, the only thing they can do is produce more and more which just snowballs as now you can't see what your co-workers/competition is doing.

I weekly go into a store that buys pallets of merchandise (from a auction where you can see the outside of the pallet, but what's inside of it is unknown) and the #1 thing they are getting is coming from restaurant distributors who have cases of product they would sell to restaurants and bars that have went poof. Think 5 gallon containers of mustard, salad dressing, relish, etc.

Point is when this all done, the number of un/under employed is going to be much higher than just the 10 million

But we'll have lots of tasty condiments....

About all I can add here is that if you're one of the unfortunate ones who got swept out and ain't coming back because of the 2020/2021 whatever (COVID, oil industry getting willfully destroyed, China, TTTTT, etc.), you sure as fuck better be figuring out what skillset will keep you from being in that spot again. Reinvention and training instead of playing Call Of Duty is probably a good way to burn whatever remaining weeks of Unemployment benefits remain.

And if you didn't get whacked, keep your head on a swivel and figure out when the next shoe will drop to avoid the above.

Been there, done that - ain't gonna do it again. The Grim Reaper will go empty handed when he knocks on the Throbber's door.

My org lost a fair bit of headcount. Pretty rough on those folks. I got lucky but that fear is always hanging over one’s head. I need to find away to monetize my record shoppe.

We lost about 10% from the gas station staff. And about last July, things were god awfully slow. But about September, things ramped up to normal. And in December, my normal 50-60 hour weeks were becoming steady 70 to 80 hour ones to make up for the bodies we were missing. Then to start the New Year, we kept losing people not to the chopping block but because other gas stations started poaching them. On Friday, the slowest pump jockey, the one you had to explain the difference between diesel and 93 octane to a hundred times over, announced she had just been poached by the station down the street.

The point being I'm lollygagging at pumping gas remotely right now on a Sunday night, but there's money to be made at the gas station if anyone has a non-STEM degree and is willing to learn.

 

[YellowSnow]

Great story and analysis 1 to ......

One big Reason housing prices are up is after the 07/08 housing crash, Home builders spent the next 3-4 years building about 25% of the new inventory needed to keep up with demographics.

Your comment on true unemployment and what's coming is so spot on. We have 10 million jobs that are gone and not coming back, and with the new work from home economy, many big businesses are 1/2 months away from having a year's worth of data showing them how much more production they got from their people than by being in the office (25% was number from the head of a hedge fund interview). Banks just came out and said the days of keeping people employed thru covid just b/c are over. What this means is for these people they are going to have to have a Hunger Games Mindset when it comes to their jobs. In the past you could see in the office who was pulling their weight and not, so if crap hit the fan, all you had to do was be better than him/her and you were probably safe.

For the stay at homers, they won't be able to see that, or know who is producing what, so to try and not be the person let go, the only thing they can do is produce more and more which just snowballs as now you can't see what your co-workers/competition is doing.

I weekly go into a store that buys pallets of merchandise (from a auction where you can see the outside of the pallet, but what's inside of it is unknown) and the #1 thing they are getting is coming from restaurant distributors who have cases of product they would sell to restaurants and bars that have went poof. Think 5 gallon containers of mustard, salad dressing, relish, etc.

Point is when this all done, the number of un/under employed is going to be much higher than just the 10 million

But we'll have lots of tasty condiments....

About all I can add here is that if you're one of the unfortunate ones who got swept out and ain't coming back because of the 2020/2021 whatever (COVID, oil industry getting willfully destroyed, China, TTTTT, etc.), you sure as fuck better be figuring out what skillset will keep you from being in that spot again. Reinvention and training instead of playing Call Of Duty is probably a good way to burn whatever remaining weeks of Unemployment benefits remain.

And if you didn't get whacked, keep your head on a swivel and figure out when the next shoe will drop to avoid the above.

Been there, done that - ain't gonna do it again. The Grim Reaper will go empty handed when he knocks on the Throbber's door.

My org lost a fair bit of headcount. Pretty rough on those folks. I got lucky but that fear is always hanging over one’s head. I need to find away to monetize my record shoppe.

We lost about 10% from the gas station staff. And about last July, things were god awfully slow. But about September, things ramped up to normal. And in December, my normal 50-60 hour weeks were becoming steady 70 to 80 hour ones to make up for the bodies we were missing. Then to start the New Year, we kept losing people not to the chopping block but because other gas stations started poaching them. On Friday, the slowest pump jockey, the one you had to explain the difference between diesel and 93 octane to a hundred times over, announced she had just been poached by the station down the street.

The point being I'm lollygagging at pumping gas remotely right now on a Sunday night, but there's money to be made at the gas station if anyone has a non-STEM degree and is willing to learn.

Yeah, I reckon if I ever get the axe I can use my HCH ducktard connections to go pump som gas. My grip is skrong on the pump from being an ex row Peter puffer.

 

[RaceBannon]

I have been back out last week and this looking at jobsites and word on the street is that lighting and carpet are in short supply and the customer is about to unleash a nationwide remodel spree again. Just adds to the supply line pressure and when the goal is basic cosmetic makeovers and rebrand shit like lights and carpet matter. A lot

The national standard pendant is on a 6 month lead time. They got fired. But I'm pretty sure its a common story. Prices are way up too. On everything.

I guess I have no choice but to get ours. Sad, but someone has to do it

 

[pawz]

My wife has been a stay at homer for about 10 years, and the screws are tightening. Her company dumped a bunch of warm bodies when the vid hit, but she was #3 in sales (out of 120), so, safe. In the last month, she has been losing her mind, one day wanting to quit, next day maybe not...yada yada. We are too old to re-invent ourselves for new careers, and if we can ride out the next 5 years, we will be free and clear house-wise, and rental wise. We are strictly renting to military families / people, so as long as Uncle Sam's checks don't bounce, we good for now.[/i][/b]

We went though 1to's housing scenario to a T, but weren't savvy enough to see the burst coming. We crashed hard, but held on to enough to make it out, after a couple of rough years. I was adamant that "the MAN" would have to pump the bubble back up (gotta keep the game going) and we would come out on the other end, which we did. It was more hope than knowledge, but thankfully I was right, this time.

She has broached buying a "business" (B & B, or a bar / restaurant), and, at our ages, I have firmly said, "NO"...having worked in it when younger, and knowing several who were in and got out. It is no lifestyle I want to be a part of. I am pretty fearful of our daughters' futures, as far as ever owning a house, not to mention job market, but at their ages, they can morph into whatever works, hopefully, cause in about 5 years, I plan on drinking their inheritance on the beaches of Mexico, if there is anything left of it...

* swoon *

The other crucial elements to this play are a steady supply of tenants. I tell everyone who will listen that wants to buy rentals to focus on JBLM/Whidbey etc.

Also, if you have a tenant get out of line, a well-placed call to a CO will straighten that shit out right-quick. At least that's what I'm hearing ...

 

[HoustonHusky]

I have been back out last week and this looking at jobsites and word on the street is that lighting and carpet are in short supply and the customer is about to unleash a nationwide remodel spree again. Just adds to the supply line pressure and when the goal is basic cosmetic makeovers and rebrand shit like lights and carpet matter. A lot

The national standard pendant is on a 6 month lead time. They got fired. But I'm pretty sure its a common story. Prices are way up too. On everything.

I guess I have no choice but to get ours. Sad, but someone has to do it

We are witnessing the greatest transfer of wealth in our country’s history from poor people to rich people right now...they have to do something with that additional wealth...

 

[USMChawk]

I have been back out last week and this looking at jobsites and word on the street is that lighting and carpet are in short supply and the customer is about to unleash a nationwide remodel spree again. Just adds to the supply line pressure and when the goal is basic cosmetic makeovers and rebrand shit like lights and carpet matter. A lot

The national standard pendant is on a 6 month lead time. They got fired. But I'm pretty sure its a common story. Prices are way up too. On everything.

I guess I have no choice but to get ours. Sad, but someone has to do it

We had to pick out different waterline tile for the pool because the ones we ordered 6 months ago, still aren’t available. It’s a fucking nightmare...

 

[BennyBeaver]

I have been back out last week and this looking at jobsites and word on the street is that lighting and carpet are in short supply and the customer is about to unleash a nationwide remodel spree again. Just adds to the supply line pressure and when the goal is basic cosmetic makeovers and rebrand shit like lights and carpet matter. A lot

The national standard pendant is on a 6 month lead time. They got fired. But I'm pretty sure its a common story. Prices are way up too. On everything.

I guess I have no choice but to get ours. Sad, but someone has to do it

We had to pick out different waterline tile for the pool because the ones we ordered 6 months ago, still aren’t available. It’s a fucking nightmare...

My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family during this difficult time.

Also,

 

[Fishpo31]

My wife has been a stay at homer for about 10 years, and the screws are tightening. Her company dumped a bunch of warm bodies when the vid hit, but she was #3 in sales (out of 120), so, safe. In the last month, she has been losing her mind, one day wanting to quit, next day maybe not...yada yada. We are too old to re-invent ourselves for new careers, and if we can ride out the next 5 years, we will be free and clear house-wise, and rental wise. We are strictly renting to military families / people, so as long as Uncle Sam's checks don't bounce, we good for now.[/i][/b]

We went though 1to's housing scenario to a T, but weren't savvy enough to see the burst coming. We crashed hard, but held on to enough to make it out, after a couple of rough years. I was adamant that "the MAN" would have to pump the bubble back up (gotta keep the game going) and we would come out on the other end, which we did. It was more hope than knowledge, but thankfully I was right, this time.

She has broached buying a "business" (B & B, or a bar / restaurant), and, at our ages, I have firmly said, "NO"...having worked in it when younger, and knowing several who were in and got out. It is no lifestyle I want to be a part of. I am pretty fearful of our daughters' futures, as far as ever owning a house, not to mention job market, but at their ages, they can morph into whatever works, hopefully, cause in about 5 years, I plan on drinking their inheritance on the beaches of Mexico, if there is anything left of it...

* swoon *

The other crucial elements to this play are a steady supply of tenants. I tell everyone who will listen that wants to buy rentals to focus on JBLM/Whidbey etc.

Also, if you have a tenant get out of line, a well-placed call to a CO will straighten that shit out right-quick. At least that's what I'm hearing ...[/b]

Can confirm. Our first renter was an officer, and he told us this...

 

[EsophagealFeces]

Alright I'm just going to fucking ask: what is a VMC and what do you do with it?

Vertical Machining Center. One exactly like this (same dual vise setup, even) in my case:

I can only afford old, small(ish), and shitty (plus I have to fit it under my shop door that I should have built taller), but the better, newer, more expensive of these machines can turn a shoebox-sized block of aluminum or steel into whatever you want in about an hour. I plan to make motorcycle parts at first then whatever comes up after that.

Here's a way newer, WAY more expensive and awesome 5-axis VMC doing its thing:

I’d like to request some AR-15 and AR-10 lowers. Please and thank you.

 

[1to392831weretaken]

Alright I'm just going to fucking ask: what is a VMC and what do you do with it?

Vertical Machining Center. One exactly like this (same dual vise setup, even) in my case:

I can only afford old, small(ish), and shitty (plus I have to fit it under my shop door that I should have built taller), but the better, newer, more expensive of these machines can turn a shoebox-sized block of aluminum or steel into whatever you want in about an hour. I plan to make motorcycle parts at first then whatever comes up after that.

Here's a way newer, WAY more expensive and awesome 5-axis VMC doing its thing:

I’d like to request some AR-15 and AR-10 lowers. Please and thank you.

I though this was America. Don't those randomly show up in the mail every month like AOL CDs?

 

[Pitchfork51]

Alright I'm just going to fucking ask: what is a VMC and what do you do with it?

Vertical Machining Center. One exactly like this (same dual vise setup, even) in my case:

I can only afford old, small(ish), and shitty (plus I have to fit it under my shop door that I should have built taller), but the better, newer, more expensive of these machines can turn a shoebox-sized block of aluminum or steel into whatever you want in about an hour. I plan to make motorcycle parts at first then whatever comes up after that.

Here's a way newer, WAY more expensive and awesome 5-axis VMC doing its thing:

I’d like to request some AR-15 and AR-10 lowers. Please and thank you.

I though this was America. Don't those randomly show up in the mail every month like AOL CDs?

Only at blockbuster

 

[RatherBeBrewing]

They are pretty cool machines, congrats on acquiring one. I have four, although two are antiques currently gathering dust because it’s just easier to let them be then move them. I recently made a guitar stand, and, equally as exciting, a support for a handrail. There was an even earlier one from the late 70s from when the technology was space age, but some Korean dude actually bought it. I assume it’s to have sex with it or something kinky, because it’s been obsolete since before I was born.

You can get all kinds of heavy manufacturing equipment for free or on the cheap if you’re willing to pay to have it moved. One of my dads recently got a lathe for $500, only cost $4k to have it shipped. As bad as that sounds I had someone that owns a resort or something in the Seychelles ask to have a $50,000 item that is both huge and incredibly heavy shipped to them. I usually don’t deal with that kind of shit but their exact words were that money is no object, whatever it takes.

The pandemic isn’t what’s killing small and medium sized manufacturers, it hasn’t made that much of a difference. Depending on what they make business could be booming. There’s always machinery up for sale and never enough riggers to move it. US manufacturing has been dying for a while. Blame China, a lack of young people wanting to join the industries or having the rudimentary skills to do it, dumb consumers, metal costs and tariffs, well intentioned but poorly executed regulations, the US government, ridiculous health care costs for having employees, etc.

Anyway, enjoy your machining center!

 

[1to392831weretaken]

They are pretty cool machines, congrats on acquiring one. I have four, although two are antiques currently gathering dust because it’s just easier to let them be then move them. I recently made a guitar stand, and, equally as exciting, a support for a handrail. There was an even earlier one from the late 70s from when the technology was space age, but some Korean dude actually bought it. I assume it’s to have sex with it or something kinky, because it’s been obsolete since before I was born.

You can get all kinds of heavy manufacturing equipment for free or on the cheap if you’re willing to pay to have it moved. One of my dads recently got a lathe for $500, only cost $4k to have it shipped. As bad as that sounds I had someone that owns a resort or something in the Seychelles ask to have a $50,000 item that is both huge and incredibly heavy shipped to them. I usually don’t deal with that kind of shit but their exact words were that money is no object, whatever it takes.

The pandemic isn’t what’s killing small and medium sized manufacturers, it hasn’t made that much of a difference. Depending on what they make business could be booming. There’s always machinery up for sale and never enough riggers to move it. US manufacturing has been dying for a while. Blame China, a lack of young people wanting to join the industries or having the rudimentary skills to do it, dumb consumers, metal costs and tariffs, well intentioned but poorly executed regulations, the US government, ridiculous health care costs for having employees, etc.

Anyway, enjoy your machining center!

Oh boy oh boy (it's shaved) what machines do you have?

Like I said, a lot of my information comes directly from the horse's mouth (the rigger himself), saying how much of his business has shifted to auction removal vs. new equipment delivery. Maybe he was lying, but I don't know why he would. I've talked to three riggers and an auction house now, and all four claim to be busier than they've ever been.

I've read plenty of those stories of free machines ("you move it, you got it!"), but I've never been able to find such a deal myself. There's a saying that goes, "The most expensive [machine, car, handjob, insert other thing here] is a free one," and this saying has rang true to me several times after mistakes I've made. But I've managed to avoid such a mistake with a piece of equipment that could quickly cost $10K if just a few things aren't working by limiting my VMC search for things younger than me and in working shape. In looking (admittedly very off and on, not super focused hunting) for a couple of decades for an affordable machine that doesn't[/i] look like it would be a nightmare, I found many sweet deals in the south and the midwest, but this corner of the country is a large equipment deal desert unless you're extremely patient.

Until now. At the same auction I bought my POS machine, there was a mid-2000s Haas VF3SS. I jogged it full speed on all three axes, and it didn't even make a whisper. You also could have eaten off the thing it was so clean. Optioned up like it was, we're talking a $100K machine new. It sold for $30K. Crazy! Even newer VF4 for $17K. I saw a 2005 Fadal 4020 go for $6700. Hell, mine seemed in fine working order when I tested it, and it sold for only $5K (auctioneer was pissed). It will have cost more to move it and power it up. Like I said, maybe I just haven't been consistent enough in searching in the past, but I've never seen anything like this. Every other "acceptable" machine I've eyeballed in the past was at least $20K or 1500 miles away.

 

[RatherBeBrewing]

They are pretty cool machines, congrats on acquiring one. I have four, although two are antiques currently gathering dust because it’s just easier to let them be then move them. I recently made a guitar stand, and, equally as exciting, a support for a handrail. There was an even earlier one from the late 70s from when the technology was space age, but some Korean dude actually bought it. I assume it’s to have sex with it or something kinky, because it’s been obsolete since before I was born.

You can get all kinds of heavy manufacturing equipment for free or on the cheap if you’re willing to pay to have it moved. One of my dads recently got a lathe for $500, only cost $4k to have it shipped. As bad as that sounds I had someone that owns a resort or something in the Seychelles ask to have a $50,000 item that is both huge and incredibly heavy shipped to them. I usually don’t deal with that kind of shit but their exact words were that money is no object, whatever it takes.

The pandemic isn’t what’s killing small and medium sized manufacturers, it hasn’t made that much of a difference. Depending on what they make business could be booming. There’s always machinery up for sale and never enough riggers to move it. US manufacturing has been dying for a while. Blame China, a lack of young people wanting to join the industries or having the rudimentary skills to do it, dumb consumers, metal costs and tariffs, well intentioned but poorly executed regulations, the US government, ridiculous health care costs for having employees, etc.

Anyway, enjoy your machining center!

Oh boy oh boy (it's shaved) what machines do you have?

Like I said, a lot of my information comes directly from the horse's mouth (the rigger himself), saying how much of his business has shifted to auction removal vs. new equipment delivery. Maybe he was lying, but I don't know why he would. I've talked to three riggers and an auction house now, and all four claim to be busier than they've ever been.

I've read plenty of those stories of free machines ("you move it, you got it!"), but I've never been able to find such a deal myself. There's a saying that goes, "The most expensive [machine, car, handjob, insert other thing here] is a free one," and this saying has rang true to me several times after mistakes I've made. But I've managed to avoid such a mistake with a piece of equipment that could quickly cost $10K if just a few things aren't working by limiting my VMC search for things younger than me and in working shape. In looking (admittedly very off and on, not super focused hunting) for a couple of decades for an affordable machine that doesn't[/i] look like it would be a nightmare, I found many sweet deals in the south and the midwest, but this corner of the country is a large equipment deal desert unless you're extremely patient.

Until now. At the same auction I bought my POS machine, there was a mid-2000s Haas VF3SS. I jogged it full speed on all three axes, and it didn't even make a whisper. You also could have eaten off the thing it was so clean. Optioned up like it was, we're talking a $100K machine new. It sold for $30K. Crazy! Even newer VF4 for $17K. I saw a 2005 Fadal 4020 go for $6700. Hell, mine seemed in fine working order when I tested it, and it sold for only $5K (auctioneer was pissed). It will have cost more to move it and power it up. Like I said, maybe I just haven't been consistent enough in searching in the past, but I've never seen anything like this. Every other "acceptable" machine I've eyeballed in the past was at least $20K or 1500 miles away.

I gotta remember to check my comments. I won’t go into too much detail about what we make, but it’s rare to find someone getting into the business. I’m curious about your motorcycle parts, if you’d like to share more I’m all ears and would show it (context excluded) to one of my dads who has owned a successful manufacturing business for 50 years.

Feel free to skim or completely skip, mostly rambling below.

We have a Haas and an Okuma. Okuma is better but brand loyalty from the old man for the Haas. There’s also an old Kia Heavy Industries machine that I remember since I was a kid. I had Terminator nightmares about it when I was told it could replicate itself, I thought it just birthed a smaller version of itself. Kids are dumb. We’ve got 60k square feet of space, so plenty of room to store heavy, unused equipment. There used to be more equipment but some has been parceled out into storage containers to be sold of as units for the eventual dissolution of the business.

The good deals on machines are usually word of mouth. The lathe did come from a public auction, shipped from Pennsylvania. You’re right that the Midwest rust belt has way more inventory, but the PNW had a healthy manufacturing sector. People used to make stuff here. Some, like Leatherman and Precision Castparts, became international names of renown. I have a massive amount of blankets, mugs, pens, knives, keychains, whatever you can imagine for giveaway swag of Portland area manufacturers that used to not only exist but also be incredibly profitable.

As far as companies going out of business, maybe the guys moving and selling equipment know more than me. I wouldn’t doubt it. Federal stats don’t show a massive crash, but it’s super dependent on sector. Making stuff for auto or aviation? You’re fucked. Making home improvement, construction, medical shit? You’re probably thanking your lucky stars. My guy says that there’s been a mini renaissance, but our end of the industry is in the latter part.

I’m not sure how much the Seattle area is still dependent on Boeing. They are the dirtiest of the dirty. One of my dads has been in this business for a long time, and I’ve never heard him badmouth a company like Boeing. They’d farm out a contract, get a giant order out that would force a shop to get new equipment, employees, supplies. After the first batch they wouldn’t order any more. Then they would set up their own shop or get a friendly one to buy your equipment and hire the staff you trained after you inevitably over extend yourself.

Over the last two decades there has been a major decline in the small to medium manufacturers, obviously. This then hits the smallest ones, making parts even more difficult to find. Our products are 90% made in house, and that helped when others got fucked, like when a small motor they were reliant on got discontinued. That’s only possible because we have employees that have been doing this for decades and can adjust. It’s funny that our products are more valued by foreigners than Americans, because the American consumer is typically shortsighted and prefers to pay less up front and then more later while someone from Western Africa or Eastern Europe would rather pay more up front for a more quality product that saves money in the long term. I’ve had them give me folksy sayings to explain this, some variant of “the cheapskate pays three times” or some shit. Or explaining that they lose too much money being idle and they have a limited window before the next guy gets their job.

Although it’s not my dream to be a factory owner if there were more sane government regulations and protections I could create a couple of dozen family wage jobs, be diversified enough to withstand fall in demand for the primary product, and making others rich. But with how things are that’s a task for someone more energetic and less risk averse.

 

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Awesome post. Too much to reply to right now, but I'm gonna finish my coffee, drive to work, then have a go at it. I will say this, though:

My VMC is still sitting there doing nothing more than holding my floor down because I'm not allowed to play with my new toy until the bedroom/bathroom remodel is done, and drywall fucking sucks (especially when you're me and are terrible at it). I'm seeing light at the end of the honey-do tunnel, though, so a couple of nights ago I started looking into what all needs to be done to go from giant paperweight to making parts.

One thing I hadn't considered was air. I thought I was prepared (scored a sweet 5 hp Quincy QR25 a year or two ago) for that until Monday night, when I was doing some research and learned that quality of air is far more important than quantity if you want your spindle to last. Huh. So I looked into refrigerated air dryers and cringed when I saw they go for $1100 at the cfm that I'm looking for.

Back to the online auctions...

Wouldn't you know it, another small CNC shop going TU in Arlington, and they've got a 28 cfm dryer. Placed a proxy bid, finished my coffee, drove in to work, forgot all about it until I got an email later saying I'd won the thing for $175. For shiggles and gits, I looked through the rest of the auction to see what the big ticket items sold for, and my jaw dropped:

Haas VF0: $4400
Haas VF4: $4600!!![/b]
Mori Seiki turning center with 10 tool turret, flood coolant, chip conveyer, etc.: $4100
The bar feeder for said Mori: $125 (that is not a typo)
There was a huge cast iron tilting arbor saw for metal cutting, looked like it weighed 1000 lbs.: $10 (yes, ten fucking dollars)

I thought I scored my machine for cheap, but apparently we haven't hit rock bottom yet. As more and more hobbiests like me or wannabe garage startups find their used machines, what's left being liquidated are just going to keep getting cheaper and cheaper. Had I known that auction was going to be so crazy, I might have parked that Mori next to my Hurco, but I was too busy at work to pay attention. I'll start keeping an eye out.

Last week, from a now-former aerospace shop in Woodinville, I scored a 4'x3'x6" grade A surface plate on a heavy steel table for $300 and a mint Mitutoyo absolute digital height gauge for $200. I'm turning into an auction attic because shit's being liquidated at prices I can't say no to. I just wanted to dick around with this stuff, but I'm pretty soon going to be setup to make money from it if the need or desire were to arise. Me and all 500 other guys who now have industrial machines in their garages...

 

[1to392831weretaken]

Just glanced up at my last paragraph and noticed I'm becoming an "auction attic," whatever that is. Maybe I invented a new thing. Anyway...

I’m curious about your motorcycle parts, if you’d like to share more I’m all ears and would show it (context excluded) to one of my dads who has owned a successful manufacturing business for 50 years.

Oh, it's not like this very second I have an idea for some parts that I think I could sell to the masses. There are always rearsets, clip-ons, triple clamps, etc., but 9000 companies are already making those. It'll be nice to be able to make my own moving forward, as there tends to be a huge markup on stuff like that, but I never intended to become yet another player in that arena. I just frequently encounter problems that I can't find an off the shelf solution to (or a solution that isn't a total ripoff) and am the kind of guy who'd rather just do it myself than buy it at a price that's not fair. For instance, my brother bought a new bike in '15, and everything about it is awesome except for the suspension and brakes. We just happened to have a really sweet front end from a different bike laying around, and the wheel color was even a perfect match. Grafting fork B onto bike A required turning a custom steering stem, conversion bearings, and having a top triple clamp machined. That latter part was a big compromise due to the exorbitant cost of one-off 3-axis machining, so we went with a less effective flat part to make it realistically affordable. First project when the mill is running is to replace that top triple with the part I really wanted to make in the first place. After that, I built an XR650R supermoto for a friend, and it keeps melting electrical components due to lack of space under the seat. Thinking of making a whole new subframe to optimize the compromise between wiring component location and airbox size and accessibility. After that, I'd like to find a 65 with a blown motor and machine mounts and adapters to squeeze a 5kW golf cart motor and battery pack into the frame for my kids (for "my kids"!...).
Things like that. There was absolutely a market for front end swap kits for my brother's bike in '15 when we did it, and I probably could have sold 50 to 100 of them, but that opportunity has passed--you have to catch lightning in a bottle for that sort of thing, and it's only temporary (usually until the next, updated model comes out).[/i]

...As far as companies going out of business, maybe the guys moving and selling equipment know more than me. I wouldn’t doubt it. Federal stats don’t show a massive crash, but it’s super dependent on sector. Making stuff for auto or aviation? You’re fucked. Making home improvement, construction, medical shit? You’re probably thanking your lucky stars.[/b] My guy says that there’s been a mini renaissance, but our end of the industry is in the latter part.

Spot on. From what I'm seeing, it's mostly small to medium sized manufacturing that's taken a huge hit.[/i]

I’m not sure how much the Seattle area is still dependent on Boeing. They are the dirtiest of the dirty. One of my dads has been in this business for a long time, and I’ve never heard him badmouth a company like Boeing. They’d farm out a contract, get a giant order out that would force a shop to get new equipment, employees, supplies. After the first batch they wouldn’t order any more. Then they would set up their own shop or get a friendly one to buy your equipment and hire the staff you trained after you inevitably over extend yourself.[/b]

I had this college prof who taught the material science class--weedout course for the E-Tech program, pretty much. His side hustle was being a paid expert witness in consumer product safety lawsuits. What your dad says about Boeing (and I totally believe it), this guy explained at length about large consumer retailers like Costco and Wal Mart. He told us about a recent case involving Costco: Says their tactic is, say, they want to sell axes. So they find some axe manufacturer that produces 50,000 axes per year, and they offer them a contract at $10.00 per axe (the going rate) to build 150,000 axes per year to sell in Costco stores. Of course the ownership of this business is going to jump at that opportunity to get rich, quadruple their workforce, build three new assembly lines, move to a bigger location, etc. The contract expires there years later, then Costco comes in and says, "Okay, now it's $7.00 per axe. Take it or leave it."

What's this business supposed to do? They can't afford to lose 75% of their business with no buyer lined up to replace it. So they take that deal with the devil. The company also can't just afford to take a 30% bath, though, so they cut corners instead. Typically, an axe head is annealed and then surface hardened just at the cutting edge. To save money, they just hardened the whole head to eliminate a step. Guy buys the new-and-"improved" axe, turns it over, uses the butt of the axe to hammer in a wedge to split a round. Hardened (not supposed to be) butt shatters, chunk of steel pierces this guy's abdomen and takes out a decent sized part of his liver.

Prof said he dealt with cases like this all the time.[/i]

...Although it’s not my dream to be a factory owner if there were more sane government regulations and protections I could create a couple of dozen family wage jobs, be diversified enough to withstand fall in demand for the primary product, and making others rich. But with how things are that’s a task for someone more energetic and less risk averse.

So is the plan to just liquidate and/or sell the business when your dads are done with it?[/i]