Numbers, math, facts, etc.

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CDC boss ‘absolutely’ comfortable sending grandkids to school

The head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday he would be “absolutely” comfortable with his grandchildren heading back to school despite the coronavirus pandemic.

Dr. Robert Redfield said he would only be hesitant about one of his 11 grandchildren, a grandson who has cystic fibrosis.

“But my other 10 grandchildren — of those, eight of them are school age — I’m 100 percent that they can get back to school,” Redfield told ABC’s “Good Morning America.”

Redfield asserted that more than the economy was at stake.

“It’s not public health versus opening the schools or the economy — it’s public health versus public health. I think there really are a number of negative public health consequences that have happened to our K-12 [students] by having schools closed,” he continued.

“So it’s so important now to work together with school districts to figure out how they can take our guidelines and operationalize them in a practical way and to do it in a way that is safe.”
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Texas cleared 1200 hospital beds today, 200 of which are ICU beds. Daily new cases is officially in a downward trend, looking forward to confirming hospital census downward trend by end of this week.

Now we wait 2 weeks for deaths to crest, 173 people died today, Still 867% below NY daily peak.

 
Texas cleared 1200 hospital beds today, 200 of which are ICU beds. Daily new cases is officially in a downward trend, looking forward to confirming hospital census downward trend by end of this week.

Now we wait 2 weeks for deaths to crest, 173 people died today, Still 867% below NY daily peak.
Click to expand...

Redact, Texas data not completely processed when published. I’ll update once it’s complete.
 
Texas cleared 1200 hospital beds today, 200 of which are ICU beds. Daily new cases is officially in a downward trend, looking forward to confirming hospital census downward trend by end of this week.

Now we wait 2 weeks for deaths to crest, 173 people died today, Still 867% below NY daily peak.
Click to expand...

36 days...
 
Texas cleared 1200 hospital beds today, 200 of which are ICU beds. Daily new cases is officially in a downward trend, looking forward to confirming hospital census downward trend by end of this week.

Now we wait 2 weeks for deaths to crest, 173 people died today, Still 867% below NY daily peak.
Click to expand...

173 died today or there were 173 deaths of unknown date were reported today?
 
Texas cleared 1200 hospital beds today, 200 of which are ICU beds. Daily new cases is officially in a downward trend, looking forward to confirming hospital census downward trend by end of this week.

Now we wait 2 weeks for deaths to crest, 173 people died today, Still 867% below NY daily peak.
Click to expand...

173 died today or there were 173 deaths of unknown date were reported today?
Click to expand...

Likely the latter, I can’t dig into the data in an easy way though. The hospital census is wrong, it’s looking to be likely flat but needs to be confirmed once the data is in (what I said above is only showing 85% of hospitals).
 
Tough day in Oregon for old people with underlying conditions. Lots of new cases. Definitely shows that schools need to remain closed this fall. Would like to more about what treatments are being used in Oregon. It's like a state secret.

Oregon’s 272nd COVID-19 death is a 74-year-old man in Umatilla County who tested positive on June 29 and died on July 16, at Good Shepherd Health Care System. He had underlying conditions.

Oregon’s 273rd COVID-19 death is a 79-year-old woman in Marion County who tested positive on July 8 and died on July 21, at Salem Hospital. She had underlying conditions.
 
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https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1286785898424696834
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Anyone with a mild understanding of stats has understood for months now “cases” and anything that relies on “cases” isn’t reliably indicative of much anything.

I don’t understand why the antibody/serology studies seem to be so few and far between and aren’t being pushed more heavily.

I can’t help but wonder if it’s because the NYC serology study returned ~20% of NYC and localities like the Bronx returned ~30% antibody prevalence months ago... an actual tested and safe vaccine may take longer than the natural burnout plus AND the true IFR becomes much more clear.

Arizona’s serology numbers, which are restricted to people presenting covid like symptoms, are pushing 15% now...

Large counties in Florida (Dade, Orange, etc...) are reporting similar antibody prevalence percentages in Florida too.
 
https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1286785898424696834
Click to expand...

Anyone with a mild understanding of stats has understood for months now “cases” and anything that relies on “cases” isn’t reliably indicative of much anything.

I don’t understand why the antibody/serology studies seem to be so few and far between and aren’t being pushed more heavily.

I can’t help but wonder if it’s because the NYC serology study returned ~20% of NYC and localities like the Bronx returned ~30% antibody prevalence months ago... an actual tested and safe vaccine may take longer than the natural burnout plus AND the true IFR becomes much more clear.

Arizona’s serology numbers, which are restricted to people presenting covid like symptoms, are pushing 15% now...

Large counties in Florida (Dade, Orange, etc...) are reporting similar antibody prevalence percentages in Florida too.
Click to expand...

Personally, I wouldn't participate in a serology test now. I would have a couple months ago. There's too much uncertainty here in WA what might happen even on an AB positive.
 
https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1286785898424696834
Click to expand...

Anyone with a mild understanding of stats has understood for months now “cases” and anything that relies on “cases” isn’t reliably indicative of much anything.

I don’t understand why the antibody/serology studies seem to be so few and far between and aren’t being pushed more heavily.

I can’t help but wonder if it’s because the NYC serology study returned ~20% of NYC and localities like the Bronx returned ~30% antibody prevalence months ago... an actual tested and safe vaccine may take longer than the natural burnout plus AND the true IFR becomes much more clear.

Arizona’s serology numbers, which are restricted to people presenting covid like symptoms, are pushing 15% now...

Large counties in Florida (Dade, Orange, etc...) are reporting similar antibody prevalence percentages in Florida too.
Click to expand...

It'll show the death rate as being much lower than they claim and lock downs will die.
 
https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1286823745131368449

I think that's regarding the notion that recovered people can contract the 'Vid again.
Although replication-competent virus was not isolated 3 weeks after symptom onset, recovered patients can continue to have SARS-CoV-2 RNA detected in their upper respiratory specimens for up to 12 weeks (Korea CDC, 2020; Li et al., 2020; Xiao et al, 2020). Investigation of 285 “persistently positive” persons, which included 126 persons who had developed recurrent symptoms, found no secondary infections among 790 contacts attributable to contact with these case patients. Efforts to isolate replication-competent virus from 108 of these case patients were unsuccessful (Korea CDC, 2020).
 
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