NCAA Tourney Chances

Hi, Slim. Meet None. He wants to discuss UW seeding in the upcoming NCAA tournament
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Pretty funny...

However, any team that has a decent shot at winning the Pac 12 tournament has a decent chance of making the tourney. You can make an argument that there won't be much shock if either Arizona, ASU, USC, UCLA, Washington, Stanford, Oregon, or Utah win it and get the automatic bid.

You basically have 8 mediocre teams and 4 big sky teams in this conference.
 
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The PAC12 is doing itself no favors across the bored. No idea how they've somehow become THIS bad, but when a major 5 league has one lock(and that lock isn't all that impressive in AZ) and the rest are working their way into a 68 team tourney it's downright embarrassing. It's looking more likely that Miller is back at AZ with the ESPN egg lay, however the pac12 needs a massive jolt of talent. The mediocre to bad teams are the norm vs 5-7 years ago when at least 25% of the league was top 25.
 
For any of you stupid fucks that only look at Lunardi's stuff, take a look at this link instead:http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

Ranks all projections based on a 5 year average of accuracy. Most people that know what they're doing have UW as one of the last teams in. I think 3 more wins gets it done, including the P12 tourney. Just can't drop the OSU game.
 
Arizona, Utah, SC and maybe Oregon deserve to be in if they make the P12 title game. Everyone else should gas up their fishin boats. But again ASU probably takes Utah or Oregons place.
 
Looking at the NCAA Team Sheets that the committee is using, the problem w UW and the P12 teams not named Arizona is that their resumes are all going to look the same.

UW’s biggest problems right now:

Risk of Oregon’s RPI dropping below 75 + Oregon St being a no upside all downside game this weekend.

Our BPI and POM Numbers way higher than RPI giving pause to how good we really are (accurate) ... we’ve definitely drove better results than we should have

The resumes of the other P12 teams on the bubble look very similar to ours w SC and ASU having slightly stronger resumes than UW, UCLA, and Utah. The Xavier win will likely save ASU.
 
For any of you stupid fucks that only look at Lunardi's stuff, take a look at this link instead:http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

Ranks all projections based on a 5 year average of accuracy. Most people that know what they're doing have UW as one of the last teams in. I think 3 more wins gets it done, including the P12 tourney. Just can't drop the OSU game.
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The point being. UW can win both games this weekend, but if they don't beat Arizona, USC, or an ASU in the Pac 12 tournament, any team behind them that gets a big upset will jump them.

Recency also plays a part. UW hasn't looked as good recently as they did at the beginning of the season. Being hot at the end of the season is almost as important if not more important than the end of season resume. What I'm trying to say is that if UW doesn't look like the same team that upset Kansas early this year, the committee will absolutely hold that against them.
 
Probably more importantly Kansas doesn’t look like the same team that we beat ...

I don’t think we’ve dropped a ton in our level of play ... we have our warts and they’ve shown up from time to time down the stretch
 
Probably more importantly Kansas doesn’t look like the same team that we beat ...

I don’t think we’ve dropped a ton in our level of play ... we have our warts and they’ve shown up from time to time down the stretch
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We are pretty much who we thought we are. A team with limited potential. At least we are playing up to that potential is all.
 
Probably more importantly Kansas doesn’t look like the same team that we beat ...

I don’t think we’ve dropped a ton in our level of play ... we have our warts and they’ve shown up from time to time down the stretch
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You are probably right.
 
better to be a 5 seed and crush cal in 1st round than be a 4 seed and play no game, right?
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Doubt it, Cal doesn't help the RPI at all. Empty wins don't move the ledger.
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This. UW is out right now. Oregon and OSU at home won't move the ledger at all. You can't say "2 in vegas will get us in for sure" until you know who you're playing in Vegas. I think it will take 2 wins in Vegas over teams above UW in the pecking order (Zona, USC, UCLA, ASU, Utah) for UW to get in. UW could win 3 if the bracket shakes out poorly for them (over Cal, OSU, and Stanford) and lose in the title game and still not get in.

UW has to win both this week and then hope they get their shot at one/two of those quadrant one wins (which is fucking stupid but that's another thread) in Vegas.
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You might be wrong on Oregon. They sit at #75 right now. It's possible UW could beat them and Oregon still finish top 75 (depending on what UO does in the PXT). If they do that's a quadrant two win, which we desperately need (currently 1-4 in quadrant 2, 4-4 in quadrant 1).

Oregon St definitely isn't going to help.

I don't think there's any chance UW wins 3 in the conference tourney and doesn't go to the dance unless they get swept by the Oregons this week, if only because that's three more road/neutral wins. UW is out right now, they're not way out.

Ultimately I think we'll end up just on the wrong side of the bubble, but as @FreeChavez poonted out the zone should travel well in big, empty arenas. We might show very well in the PXT.

Gotta sweep this week first though.
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Well Oregon losing to WSU completely screwed that potential quadrant 2 matchup.

OTOH, that might have popped Oregon's bubble.
 
better to be a 5 seed and crush cal in 1st round than be a 4 seed and play no game, right?
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Doubt it, Cal doesn't help the RPI at all. Empty wins don't move the ledger.
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This. UW is out right now. Oregon and OSU at home won't move the ledger at all. You can't say "2 in vegas will get us in for sure" until you know who you're playing in Vegas. I think it will take 2 wins in Vegas over teams above UW in the pecking order (Zona, USC, UCLA, ASU, Utah) for UW to get in. UW could win 3 if the bracket shakes out poorly for them (over Cal, OSU, and Stanford) and lose in the title game and still not get in.

UW has to win both this week and then hope they get their shot at one/two of those quadrant one wins (which is fucking stupid but that's another thread) in Vegas.
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You might be wrong on Oregon. They sit at #75 right now. It's possible UW could beat them and Oregon still finish top 75 (depending on what UO does in the PXT). If they do that's a quadrant two win, which we desperately need (currently 1-4 in quadrant 2, 4-4 in quadrant 1).

Oregon St definitely isn't going to help.

I don't think there's any chance UW wins 3 in the conference tourney and doesn't go to the dance unless they get swept by the Oregons this week, if only because that's three more road/neutral wins. UW is out right now, they're not way out.

Ultimately I think we'll end up just on the wrong side of the bubble, but as @FreeChavez poonted out the zone should travel well in big, empty arenas. We might show very well in the PXT.

Gotta sweep this week first though.
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Well Oregon losing to WSU completely screwed that potential quadrant 2 matchup.

OTOH, that might have popped Oregon's bubble.
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Oregon was never on the bubble. Non conf was horrid
 
We've seen this before, with much more talented teams. The Pac12 tourney is going to be the make or break for this team. They need at least 2 wins to be considered a possible entrant. There will be upsets in other conference tourneys which means UW needs to go pretty deep into the PacXII to give themselves a shot.

A loss to oregon means you can adios any chance without just winning the whole conf tourney.
 
Oregon lost their elimination game. If you can beat them and win one Pac 12 tourney game, it looks like you're in. I still hate that ASU is still in. I know the Pac 12 sucks this year but You still have to account for conference record. It's still a Power 5 conference. And ASU getting in over a Utah is criminal to me. It's stupid to put so much value in November wins.
But that is more or less what has you guys on the brink of making it as well.
 
Oregon lost their elimination game. If you can beat them and win one Pac 12 tourney game, it looks like you're in. I still hate that ASU is still in. I know the Pac 12 sucks this year but You still have to account for conference record. It's still a Power 5 conference. And ASU getting in over a Utah is criminal to me. It's stupid to put so much value in November wins.
But that is more or less what has you guys on the brink of making it as well.
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No
 
UW, Oregon, and Stanford have to win the pac 12 tourney to get in. UW lost any other opportunity after yesterday’s shitshow.
 
We were definitely punching above our weight through January. Credit goes to Hopkins and the team for that.

Lunardi has us as the last four out. So win two and there's probably a 60-80% chance we're in. If we can make it to the final, it should be a lock. There are no locks after 2012 though.
 
We were definitely punching above our weight through January. Credit goes to Hopkins and the team for that.

Lunardi has us as the last four out. So win two and there's probably a 60-80% chance we're in. If we can make it to the final, it should be a lock. There are no locks after 2012 though.
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Lunardi hasn’t updated since UW lost to Oregon. UW has no at large shot, especially with being on the opposite side of the bracket from zona. P12 will get 3: zona, UCLA, usc...and whoever wins the conf tourney (if it’s not one of those 3).
 
We were definitely punching above our weight through January. Credit goes to Hopkins and the team for that.

Lunardi has us as the last four out. So win two and there's probably a 60-80% chance we're in. If we can make it to the final, it should be a lock. There are no locks after 2012 though.
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Lunardi hasn’t updated since UW lost to Oregon. UW has no at large shot, especially with being on the opposite side of the bracket from zona. P12 will get 3: zona, UCLA, usc...and whoever wins the conf tourney (if it’s not one of those 3).
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UW has a pretty good chance of getting in if they get to the final
 
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