Have to think through this logically ...
Big 10 has 14 teams ... they value in no particular order education, football, and basketball. Between the Big 10 and the ACC, both of these conferences are constantly trying to one up the other in terms of basketball power. Kansas is a significant coup in this regard combined with the regional pull of bringing their national brand (will play up on the Big 10 Network) as well as the growth into the greater Kansas City market. Oklahoma is also a strong national brand and would also check a number of boxes for the Big 10. Additionally, bringing Oklahoma in would bring back the storied Oklahoma and Nebraska rivalry. This would be a strong play by the Big 10.
Texas is the school in the interesting position here. By all accounts the Longhorn Network has been an unquestioned failure. Once the original agreement expires, hard to imagine it being renewed. At that point, Texas is stuck re-examining its position. Oklahoma holds more cards right now in dictating where they want to go IMO. While Texas is unquestionably the stronger school, it's desire to be prettiest girl in the room won't fly in the Big 10. The SEC most likely isn't the answer because not only will A&M will block them from coming in, but Texas most likely spurned them on the front end. Ideologically, Texas fits more in the PAC.
Should this process start, then you are looking at the Big 12 splitting up and dividing themselves into the remaining conferences (ACC, SEC, Big 10, and PAC). Big 10 is full with the adds of Kansas and Oklahoma. The ACC currently has 14 teams + an agreement with Notre Dame. I'd expect that in a consolidation phase ND moves into the ACC as a full member with West Virginia most likely being the 16th team. If Texas goes to the PAC, you have 13 members there (3 spots remaining) and the SEC has 14 members (2 spots remaining). In total, you have 5 spots remaining to be allocated amongst 6 Big 12 schools (assuming that other schools don't get involved) of Iowa State, KState, Okie Lite, TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech.
I'd think Okie Lite would head towards the SEC. That leaves a question of what school is the next likely school to head to the SEC. Both new members in my mind would be in the West. There could be growing concern about the West becoming too difficult and wanting to get a little bit of a balance between East/West. I could see the Alabama schools heading to the East. It wouldn't shock me to see Baylor as the school that the SEC would pick given its large size, strong academics, and decent performance across a multitude of sports. Given the geography of being North of College Station, I'm not sure that they would have enough of a footprint in the Houston recruiting area to really bother TAMU or LSU (which is why Houston would never be a player in the SEC). IF Baylor isn't the call, then I really think it may then be KState to give more of a geographic partner with Missouri. It's not ideal ... but KState is really the one school in this that doesn't have a great fit but brings just enough to the table that it's not a complete little sister.
I would think that the PAC would desperately want to get Okie Lite but I'm not sure that they will get them. TCU does have some church school elements in them, but they aren't the bible thumbers that Baylor is. Baylor IMO isn't a fit in the PAC which is why I think they would end up in the SEC. TCU's growing academic reputation + money + DFW market makes them attractive for the PAC. Tech is probably in by default and their geography in West Texas makes them not necessarily a huge overlap to TCU/Texas. Baylor being right between TCU/Texas makes 2 of the 3 of them being the most needed with the third school being abundance. The South needs their WSU in Tech. I don't see any way that Iowa State gets into a bigger conference. They are left out in the cold which probably makes sense because outside of basketball they don't bring much to the table.
The PAC probably doesn't emerge with the first choices here ... but provided that they end up with Texas and at least one of TCU/Baylor, they will emerge with enough of the Texas market to consider it a net win.
The guy who gets paid to write this did it in less words. You must lead a miserable and pathetic life.
I also wrote this in between a few interruptions ... probably a bit scatter thought
I lead a miserable and pathetic life because I finished reading the whole thing.