Did a little search...I'm not an analytics guy (I'm OLD), but I found numbers to back up what I've been seeing.
Weighted On -Base-Average Allowed by Pitch Type:
Four seam FB: .350
Sinker: .349
Cutter: .315
Change up: .292
Slider: .269
Curveball: .263
Splitter: .257
Hitting approaches always focus on Fastball-First...They sit on it as much as possible, and if you are in the big leagues, you can hit the fastball, even 100+.
In looking at pitcher spray charts, for a good/great performance, the fastballs are grouped in specific areas:
Four-seam FB: Outside edge, and top of the zone. Miss in the zone, it gets hit, often hard
Two seamer/Sinker: Bottom of the zone, down and in for same-side, swing-back and on-to-off the plate for opposite side, depending on shape.
The life on the 4-seamer has changed it a lot...Castillo's 4 seamer runs arm side hard, his 2 seamer sinks.
I agree that Brash and Munoz need to tighten up the FB command, a lot like Gilbert / Kirby...when they can dot the outside corner, they are really tough to square up. The out pitch is the slider, but they gotta paint with the FB to get there.
Your comment about bad hitters reminds me of what my dad told me when I was about 12...The Three Nevers: Never play cards with a man named Doc, never eat at a place called Mom's, and never throw a change up to shitty hitter.
I’ll take your scouts eye on it, but that data doesn’t really tell you anything. More fastballs in hitters counts, less breaking stuff. Hitters chase stuff in pitchers counts.
I think that some of it gets lost in how hard guys throw now. My point was that good hitters hit fastballs, no matter the velocity or count. I have been seeing pitchers with incredible stuff, mostly starters, pitch backwards for a while now. Off speed pitches in hitters counts, FB when ahead in counts. You never saw that 10 years ago. Musgrove did it big time against the Mets. 0-0 and 3-0 is no longer pump a 4 seamer in for a gift strike. Now you see a lot of cutters in those situations.
FB is used to paint, steal a strike (located), or in chase counts. From my eye, hitters are chasing fewer breaking balls now, but do chase the high heat.
The pen guys now throw their out pitch predominately, with the FB as a set-up. They don't come off of it, even at 3-2. Munoz and Diaz, for as hard as they throw, lean on the slider, which Diaz didn't have when with the M's.
It reminded me of Trevor Hoffman. He would pipe two 84-86 fastballs for strikes, because everyone sat on his change up. It was so good, when they got it with two strikes, it was over.
Good stuff!
Few pitchers are confident in their ability to locate anything, so they fling breaking stuff up there in tough spots. A bad miss with a slider is still a change of speeds and a hard spinning, moving ball that's less likely to get hit squarely even in the zone and what the batter expected. I get it.
Fastballs like what Munoz, Brash, and Castillo throw can back door the outside corner on righties or saw them off inside, and inside backdoor lefties or make them wave low and away. Up isn't the only place to get it by hitters and it doesnt induce weak, in play contact or quick outs. It's the fascist way to pitch. Down and away, up and in still works, induces quick outs, and is more democratic.
True, but pinpoint control is considered the ability to throw it to a 12" X 12" box. After that, it is throwing to the correct quadrant of the zone, up and down, in and out...i.e., if the location is down/away, don't miss in, and vise-versa. They are setting pitch plans based on past performance of the hitter, and what the catcher/pitcher see the hitter adjust to during the at-bat, and reading swings. A lot of the highlight-show HRs are double-crosses...the hitter is set up for down and away, and miss up/middle in.
Hitters will subtly cheat to pitches, and a good catcher/pitcher will catch this, and adjust. If you go away, away, away, guys will creep up on the plate, and you bust them in. The swing-back 2 seamer is perhaps the most difficult pitch to throw consistently. Maddux had it mastered, but when he figured it out, he was throwing 86-88, with laser command. The glove-side down and away FB is the toughest pitch to hit, and throw, consistently.
The key is where you miss, and that is dictated by the count. 0-0 and in pitcher's counts, if you miss, miss off the plate. In hitter's counts, you have to miss on the plate, or walk them. Obvious stuff, but important stuff. The previous pitch sets up the next one. An old saying that still works is, "If you want to get them out away, you've got to go in" to push them back just a smidge, and open up that spot. If you want to get them out in, get them leaning to the outside.
Don't see it much anymore, but guys used to bait pitchers into throwing them what they want. The two guys that were most obvious, later in their career, were Dale Murphy and Dave Winfield. They both stood way off the plate, looking like they wanted to clear for the FB in. Guys would pitch them away, and they would dive in and drive it to right field, covering up the fact that they couldn't catch up to the inside FB anymore...
