Leveling Down Update

YellowSnow

YellowSnow

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Staff member
Swaye's Wigwam
Looks like we're down to 27 x 4 Stars "In Progress"
https://247sports.com/Season/2018-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/

Only Clempson has won the whole thing in the CFP era with less than the magic number or 40 (they had 39 in 2016).

TCU has 17 last year. I don't recall were Oregon was in 2014 but it was low 30's, right?

Can UW be the first to do it with well below 40? We had 21 in 2016 including 4 star QB Jake Browning.
 
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We have something the 5 star factories don't: Big Penix Energy!
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If we win the Pac 12 and make it the Natty game, it will be the biggest indictment of TBS cult in human history.
 
Some of the best players on offense were 4*:

Rosengarten
Fautanu
Odunze
McMillan

I think Penix and Polk were originally 3* recruits out of HS. A lot of the OL were 4* and they all seem to be pretty good. Brailsford was 3*.

The only 4* on the defense I can think of who is a key player is Tuli L. He's surrounded by 4* Pete recruits at DT who haven't really distinguished themselves. Trice and ZTF were 3*. All of the LBs and DBs I can think of, aside from Asa, were 3*.
 
I think I'm not the only one to concede this year is fine. It's a great mix of development, some breaks, and having legit four stars like Odunze, McMillan, Fautanu, Trice (should have been a 4), Tuli and Rosengarten the Penix who was basically a 5* transfer at key positions.

I'm worried long term though, the portal isn't a great source for more than like one top end guy a cycle and Penix was a rare convergence of a bunch of breaks for UW.
 


I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
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I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.

And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.
 
Florida State played 17 transfers, Clemson 0

This is college football

If you get REAL 5 stars out of high school there is a far greater chance you will lose them in the portal. What if UW had a stud 5 star freshman receiver this year - he'd be gone after never seeing the field

I actually do trust DeBoer to do both and do both well. But I think Portal acquisition is more important
 
I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
Click to expand...

I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.

And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.
Click to expand...

At most positions, and in most cases, 3* from anywhere in the country > 4* from the west coast (not just Wa). It's harder for great prospects to hide out in the West so you don't get as many underrated, surprise 3*. This staff seems to do a great job of finding and recruiting guys from the Midwest and South and are building some good depth on the DL and D backfield that way.
 
Florida State played 17 transfers, Clemson 0

This is college football

If you get REAL 5 stars out of high school there is a far greater chance you will lose them in the portal. What if UW had a stud 5 star freshman receiver this year - he'd be gone after never seeing the field

I actually do trust DeBoer to do both and do both well. But I think Portal acquisition is more important
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Fats going out and snagging BPE will likely end up the greatest big dick move in the history of Washington Football.

I still hate NIL and transfer portal unless it helps Washington.
 
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This staff has the portal dialed …

They will recruit to the system and then supplement with high talent in portal that also fits system. Then tilt the system slightly to meet talent if necessary …
 
I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
Click to expand...

I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.

And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.
Click to expand...

At most positions, and in most cases, 3* from anywhere in the country > 4* from the west coast (not just Wa). It's harder for great prospects to hide out in the West so you don't get as many underrated, surprise 3*. This staff seems to do a great job of finding and recruiting guys from the Midwest and South and are building some good depth on the DL and D backfield that way.
Click to expand...

I've mostly put on the recruiting board that the 4 star west coast and especially WA recruits really seemed to have fallen off a cliff. As has under the radar guys. We're seeing way less missed instate guys blowing up at WSU or OSU or even like Cal or Boise. I think demographic shifts are killing the region. Hopefully Landen Hatchett, Denzel Boston, Tristan Dunn, and Jacob Lane types prove me wrong. Stand by JTT being pretty overrated too.
 
I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
Click to expand...

I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.

And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.
Click to expand...

Was Reggie Williams the last 5 star who went to UW and actually played like one?
 
I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
Click to expand...

I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.

And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.
Click to expand...

Was Reggie Williams the last 5 star who went to UW and actually played like one?
Click to expand...

Shaq was and generally played like one. I think Reggie was.
 
I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
Click to expand...

I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.

And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.
Click to expand...

Was Reggie Williams the last 5 star who went to UW and actually played like one?
Click to expand...

Shaq was and generally played like one. I think Reggie was.
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Shaq played like one. Good call. Those teams were mostly forgettable. Could have used him during the Manu/Wellington era.
 
Does the 40 4* magic number still matter in the portal era? I don't think it does. How do you star rate the transfers? Their original star rating?

The 40 4* came about because you had to have a baseline talent level to compete for natty. Transfers were rare and made up a very small percentage of the roster. Predicting successful college production from teen bois is an activity where you want as many rolls of the dice as possible, so you need 40 assuming enough will hit. With say 10% of 3*s, 25% of 4*s and 50% of 5*s becoming high end players, gotta have the odds on hitting enough of those high end players.

In transfer era, the transfers you are taking have assumed to already hit, or have a much higher probability of hitting the big time than the 4* teen boi. Their 3* rating from being 18 is no longer relevant; their probability of being a high end college player is a much higher known. At that point it is 60-95% depending on the player, with a Caleb Williams at 100% and a Penix at 80% when he transferred. His 3* rating isn't relevant; he had proven to be high-end when healthy and the probability shifted to whether he could stay healthy.
 
Does the 40 4* magic number still matter in the portal era? I don't think it does. How do you star rate the transfers? Their original star rating?

The 40 4* came about because you had to have a baseline talent level to compete for natty. Transfers were rare and made up a very small percentage of the roster. Predicting successful college production from teen bois is an activity where you want as many rolls of the dice as possible, so you need 40 assuming enough will hit. With say 10% of 3*s, 25% of 4*s and 50% of 5*s becoming high end players, gotta have the odds on hitting enough of those high end players.

In transfer era, the transfers you are taking have assumed to already hit, or have a much higher probability of hitting the big time than the 4* teen boi. Their 3* rating from being 18 is no longer relevant; their probability of being a high end college player is a much higher known. At that point it is 60-95% depending on the player, with a Caleb Williams at 100% and a Penix at 80% when he transferred. His 3* rating isn't relevant; he had proven to be high-end when healthy and the probability shifted to whether he could stay healthy.
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I agree with everything you said. I'm just not comfortable with relying on the portal too heavily. If you aren't building good depth via HS recruiting and miss on just one or two important portal guys you're just fucked.
 
I used to think I understood recruiting and star rankings but I just don’t. I’ve given up.
Click to expand...

I can't tell the difference between 3 and 4 stars anymore.

And I assume any 5 star we get (from WA state) will probably suck.
Click to expand...

At most positions, and in most cases, 3* from anywhere in the country > 4* from the west coast (not just Wa). It's harder for great prospects to hide out in the West so you don't get as many underrated, surprise 3*. This staff seems to do a great job of finding and recruiting guys from the Midwest and South and are building some good depth on the DL and D backfield that way.
Click to expand...

I've mostly put on the recruiting board that the 4 star west coast and especially WA recruits really seemed to have fallen off a cliff.[/b] As has under the radar guys. We're seeing way less missed instate guys blowing up at WSU or OSU or even like Cal or Boise. I think demographic shifts are killing the region. Hopefully Landen Hatchett, Denzel Boston, Tristan Dunn, and Jacob Lane types prove me wrong. Stand by JTT being pretty overrated too.
Click to expand...

West coast basically cancelled high school and junior high sports for a year and half. Development of players was stunted more than other areas of the country.
 
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