Julien Simon, 4* 2021 ATH, Tacoma (Lincoln), WA (Offered 6/22)

Top 150-ish nationally four-star prospect per 247 Sports and yet couldn't get on the field for USC's absolute shit defense.

LOL at 247's grade inflation for FSP/Heir

 
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Yikes. Mark this one down in the category of sometimes the recruiting rankings don't mean shit.
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The majority of the board was dialed in on this one.
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Top 150-ish nationally four-star prospect per 247 Sports and yet couldn't get on the field for USC's absolute shit defense.

LOL at 247's grade inflation for FSP/Heir

Yes, mark this one down as a the board being right. Also shows might point that some schools with take guys rated four star on 247 just for the ratings bump and buzz.
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At some point 24/7 is going to have to adjust how they view Washington state kids. Evaluating a kid and being 50/50 on your 4 and 5* players panning out seems like a poor long term business model. I feel there should be maybe 10 5* kids a year and another 50 legit 4* kids. The rest are varied assortments if 3*. Also, bring back the 2* as an actual evaluation. Making someone 3* because they take up the 25th spot in a class is stupid. If a kids a reach then call it.
 
At some point 24/7 is going to have to adjust how they view Washington state kids. Evaluating a kid and being 50/50 on your 4 and 5* players panning out seems like a poor long term business model. I feel there should be maybe 10 5* kids a year and another 50 legit 4* kids. The rest are varied assortments if 3*. Also, bring back the 2* as an actual evaluation. Making someone 3* because they take up the 25th spot in a class is stupid. If a kids a reach then call it.
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Recruiting rankings should reflect what type of expected impact a kid should have in the first year or two at a program.

Right now, they're attempting to project NFL draft status, but that's stupid since that's more dependent on coaching and training. It doesn't make sense for 99% of people who follow recruiting.

Too bad the whole recruiting industry is drunk on star chinflation and hyping up 1000 kids a year
 
Checked to see the QB in front of Huard in his class and it was Quinn Ewers with the highest rank ever. He was given a perfect 1.000

Now he's 0-1 vs. UW.
 
Checked to see the QB in front of Huard in his class and it was Quinn Ewers with the highest rank ever. He was given a perfect 1.000

Now he's 0-1 vs. UW.
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Huard 1 Ewers 0
 
Checked to see the QB in front of Huard in his class and it was Quinn Ewers with the highest rank ever. He was given a perfect 1.000

Now he's 0-1 vs. UW.
Click to expand...

Wasn't Caleb Williams ahead of Huard? And then Ewers became the #1 when he reclassified?
 
Checked to see the QB in front of Huard in his class and it was Quinn Ewers with the highest rank ever. He was given a perfect 1.000

Now he's 0-1 vs. UW.
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Wasn't Caleb Williams ahead of Huard? And then Ewers became the #1 when he reclassified?
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I'm pretty sure Ty Thompson was ranked ahead of him in the end, at least on one if the services
 
At some point 24/7 is going to have to adjust how they view Washington state kids. Evaluating a kid and being 50/50 on your 4 and 5* players panning out seems like a poor long term business model. I feel there should be maybe 10 5* kids a year and another 50 legit 4* kids. The rest are varied assortments if 3*. Also, bring back the 2* as an actual evaluation. Making someone 3* because they take up the 25th spot in a class is stupid. If a kids a reach then call it.
Click to expand...

Recruiting rankings should reflect what type of expected impact a kid should have in the first year or two at a program.

Right now, they're attempting to project NFL draft status, but that's stupid since that's more dependent on coaching and training. It doesn't make sense for 99% of people who follow recruiting.

Too bad the whole recruiting industry is drunk on star chinflation and hyping up 1000 kids a year
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I think the NFL Draft status thing is a cop out to rationalize bad evaluations. How could Sam Huard be a high 5 star based on Draft projection coming out.

There's some obvious flaws in their system that are pretty blatant.

-Kids who pop really early in their high school careers or have one good camp, and get put into the system and then it's hard for 247 to shit on a kid and drop him too far. I feel like there are always 1-3 guys like this in WA each year.

-Kids who are in with groups like FSP.

-There's too many four stars. Too many kids who are four stars who it's clear only like one legit program wants.

-Kids who aren't in certain cities/areas not getting enough of a high rating - Jake Locker not being a 5* Rapp, Otton and Trey Adams being lower rated seem like fits too
 
Checked to see the QB in front of Huard in his class and it was Quinn Ewers with the highest rank ever. He was given a perfect 1.000

Now he's 0-1 vs. UW.
Click to expand...

Wasn't Caleb Williams ahead of Huard? And then Ewers became the #1 when he reclassified?
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The top 10 from that class has had...
-3 hits: Caleb Williams, JJ McCarthy, Drake Maye
-2 meh: Quinn Ewers, Jaxson Dart
-5 ??? who haven't earned real playing time: Huard, Vandagriff (UGA), McCord (OSU), Thompson (UO), Garcia (MIA)
 
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Checked to see the QB in front of Huard in his class and it was Quinn Ewers with the highest rank ever. He was given a perfect 1.000

Now he's 0-1 vs. UW.
Click to expand...

Wasn't Caleb Williams ahead of Huard? And then Ewers became the #1 when he reclassified?
Click to expand...

The top 10 from that class has had...
-3 hits: Caleb Williams, JJ McCarthy, Drake Maye
-2 meh: Quinn Ewers, Jaxson Dart
-5 ??? who haven't earned real playing time: Huard, Vandagriff (UGA), McCord (OSU), Thompson (UO), Garcia (MIA)
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McCord is the heir apparent at tOSU for next year. Huard had a big Penix in his way the year he should have would have started. But not beating out Morris...

Will be interesting to see who takes over at Georgia. They don't need a superstar just a winner

Thompson, like Huard had a portal guy take his shot which I guess speaks volumes for both of them

 
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I am not a football TBS, but I was a baseball TBS. Grades of straight physical tools (underwear olympics) gets you only so far. I think this is all the recruiting services do, based on their success / fail rate. The combines and 7-on-7 stuff max this stuff out, but doesn't account for aptitude, heart, and balls (AKA: does his dick swing).

I recently heard an ex-big leaguer say, "Spin rate? Launch angle? What is the metric for heart and balls? That is what makes the player". I concur...

This has been happening in baseball for years. The parents pay all the money for "training", and the trainers train them to show out in a workout. They are also trained on what to say to coaches and scouts. They know how to work out, to "show numbers", but don't have the awareness and feel to play the game.

Almost all of these guys are physical specimens. Athleticism off the charts. What is the separator? Head, heart, balls. A lot of these guys are afraid to make mistakes. It doesn't show in high school, but gets exposed in a hurry in college.

 
I'd call the TBS evals a little more valid @Fishpo31 except for this factor: the number and "quality" of offers overrides even the underwear olympics and a lot of those offers are sent out by programs like Texas and Oregon when they haven't even fully evaluated the prospect visually or personally. Once a kid has a couple of offers from schools like that others jump on board and the next thing you know the kid is a 90+ level, 4* recruit or rises from a fringe 4* to a fringe 5*. The flaws in the system build on each other.
 

I'd call the TBS evals a little more valid @Fishpo31 except for this factor: the number and "quality" of offers overrides even the underwear olympics and a lot of those offers are sent out by programs like Texas and Oregon when they haven't even fully evaluated the prospect visually or personally. Once a kid has a couple of offers from schools like that others jump on board and the next thing you know the kid is a 90+ level, 4* recruit or rises from a fringe 4* to a fringe 5*. The flaws in the system build on each other.
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No question...I have spent a good deal of my career trying to teach big, strong, fast kids to be baseball players, with very limited success. There are a LOT of pro prospects walking around, tools-wise, but they can't play the game.

Carpet bomb offers by the big boys have really screwed the system. Kids that need a year or two to develop don't want to sit, "Because I'm a 5 star", while 3*, 2 time walk-on, JUCO-going Stetson Bennett wins 2 natties. Yeah, it wasn't all him, but he was a key.

Pete had some flaws (DUH!), but I always respected that he didn't carpet bomb, and had to lay eyes on a guy before offering him. If they all did that, the rankings would be a lot closer to reality.
 
I'd call the TBS evals a little more valid @Fishpo31 except for this factor: the number and "quality" of offers overrides even the underwear olympics and a lot of those offers are sent out by programs like Texas and Oregon when they haven't even fully evaluated the prospect visually or personally. Once a kid has a couple of offers from schools like that others jump on board and the next thing you know the kid is a 90+ level, 4* recruit or rises from a fringe 4* to a fringe 5*. The flaws in the system build on each other.
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With most 3*, bottom half of the class kids that UW offers I look at who else offered them. If Utah, Iowa State, Iowa, KState, TCU or Baylor offered I usually considered the kid a pretty good risk. All those universities need to comb through and evaluate their tails off just to be competitive. Kansas under Liepold and Illinois under Beilima are two new programs I use as indicators. The bottom half of Pete's classes were full of kids like that. Sarks was notorious for wrangling players away from the MW and Big Sky to fill out a class and unfortunately the top half of Lakes last class pulled kids away from the likes of Arizona and Cal. Much like Pete, Deboer seems to be filling the bottom half of his classes with the kind of grinders that competitive, location disadvantaged programs seem to be interested in. Obviously KDB needs a few more legit blue chips at the top of his classes or UW will morph into being Iowa and you can kill me now if that happens. The 2024 haul will be very interesting.
 
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