I've got a good feeling about this game
- Thread starter RaceBannon
- Start date
Not even many UO fans are picking Oregon against the spread but it remains at 21. So the money isn't moving. UW looks like a sucker bet. Oregon covers if they win but UW shocks the world and wins outright. If you think Oregon is going to win they are going to cover
This made sense to me when I wrote it
This made sense to me when I wrote it
HFNY
Active poster
Yes, teams have been going after Olumu (CB, #14) with surprising success. I know he made a play against UCLA but he's undersized so I'd love to see Campbell or KW block him on an outside screen to Ross or Mickens.
A TE screen to Darrell Daniels would be great to see too (or to Perkins, when he returns in the second half after his crime against humanity last weekend @ Cal).
A TE screen to Darrell Daniels would be great to see too (or to Perkins, when he returns in the second half after his crime against humanity last weekend @ Cal).
DuckinTurkey
New Fish
The Race Bannon has visioned a Husky champions on ducks every year since we got the interwebs in Istanbul. This year will makes it 0-3, very nice.
HeretoBeatmyChest
New Fish
I think Fisher is the difference. If he was out you'd have to think UW's front 7 would have a big advantage.
That is a widespread misconception. It's true in the early days of the pod cast when we would proclaim UW had better talent but...Ty...but UW wins! By Sark we had abandoned all hope. Oregon's talent and coaching edge were too big and obvious. Oregon still has a far bigger talent edge than most Huskies posting here will admit. I thought the position breakdowns earlier this week were way out of whack. Oregon is better almost everywhere but coaching,
Make no mistake, a Husky win would be a huge upset. But they happen every week
Maybe under Chip, your beliefs about the talent gap would be true. From what I've seen, there isn't a large gap. I would take UW's roster over Oregon's excluding QB. There is also a huge gap at RB. UW has a substantially better front 7, the slightly better out of the dreckfest OL's.
Last edited:
MikeDamone
Well-known poster
UW has played 1 decent game. And even in that game the offense was underwhelming. Caps defense is worse than Oregons. 21 points is the right betting line.
HFNY
Active poster
Yeah, he's probably one of, if not the biggest, reasons Oregon is favored by 20.5.
But I am thinking a lot of money betting tomorrow that his return and convincingly beating UCLA are worth a ton of points and I disagree. UCLA's offense has talent but their OL is bad and that has really slowed them against decent defenses. UCLA's D also has talent but they are highly average this year with a 1st year DC (1st year ever, not just as UCLA) and losing Anthony Barr and Cassius Marsh from last year's D.
But I am thinking a lot of money betting tomorrow that his return and convincingly beating UCLA are worth a ton of points and I disagree. UCLA's offense has talent but their OL is bad and that has really slowed them against decent defenses. UCLA's D also has talent but they are highly average this year with a 1st year DC (1st year ever, not just as UCLA) and losing Anthony Barr and Cassius Marsh from last year's D.
I'd like this to be true but I have to see it. Oregon has out recruited UW for some time now. They are deeper and we don't have a bell cow on the O line like Fisher. Petersen is the game changer for sure, but this year? We will see
Yes, Oregon has out recruited UW for awhile. But if we are going by recruiting rankings, USC and UCLA have the most talented teams in the league. Talent itself doesn't mean dick. I've read from you many times that coaching matters and player development is equally, if not more important than recruiting. Michigan State is the best team in the Big 10. Baylor and TCU are way better than Texas, and right there with Oklahoma in the Big 12. Mississippi and Miss State are two of the best teams in the country. I know Mississippi has recruited really well lately, but Alabama, LSU, and Auburn's rankings would shit on them if you look at the past 5 years.
If Chip was coach, I'm sure Oregon's talent would look better. I've watched three Oregon games and in each one, the OL was shoddy and the DL was average. The have an outstanding QB, very good RB's, and a pretty good secondary. The rest of their team is unremarkable.
HFNY
Active poster
But the spread opened at 19 and went up to 21 indicating at least to me that Dook fans think Oregon is a-ok with 1 player back. It is has now moved down a half point and probably will settle at 20 to 19.5 because the smarter money started coming in starting on the Dawgs +21.
The O/U has also dropped a little which is positive for U-Dub all-around. Likely the only way UW covers (let alone wins) is if the game is slower on the scoring side and the Huskies blast away with the front 7 and the running game.
At least that's how I see it.
The O/U has also dropped a little which is positive for U-Dub all-around. Likely the only way UW covers (let alone wins) is if the game is slower on the scoring side and the Huskies blast away with the front 7 and the running game.
At least that's how I see it.
Passion
New Fish
My crystal balls are now saying Oregon wins 39-24 but they have been wrong, shrunken, and wrinkly before.
I'll be watching to see how RS-Frosh Coleman Shelton (has started 4 or 5 games now IIRC) does against their DL / Tony Washington. I don't think TW is all that great but he's pretty productive for them. At least Shelton already was thrown into the fire against Henry Anderson of Stanford a few weeks ago.
Jake Fisher being back for them is a big plus but how will he play as a LT (he started at RT for them in 2012 and 2013) coming off a leg injury against Kikaha? How will the U-Dub pass-rush do when Kikaha is head up on their walk-on starter at RT and RS-SR Andrew Hudson is over Fisher as a down-lineman? Or what if UW uses Kikaha and Feeney (or Littleton) as stand-up rush guys on the edges with Shelton or E. Hudson and A. Hudson as the interior DL? I love Kikaha or Feeney / Littleton going up against their walk-on RT!!11@!!!#@1!!!
I'll also be interested to see how we defend their read-option to start the game. Do we mostly focus on stopping their RBs and let Mariota carry the ball so we can attempt to (legally) incapacitate him and / or make him extremely uncomfortable. Mariota is very good but he's human so his accuracy and decision making will suffer if he's taking hits (preferably high-low hits):
It's interesting that you show photos of stanford abusing mariotta. Just as important as Shelton and Kikaha (or nearly important) are our LBs.
stanford effectively mixed up their LB blitzes. Guys like shane skov and ben gardner were coming from all different directions, AND THEY SUCCESSFULLY GOT INTO THE BACKFIELD WITHOUT GETTING BLOCKED! THIS IS WHAT KAWASAKI MUST DO! If Timu, Shaq and Feeney are asked to disrupt oregon's backfield, then they better fucking get there. If oregon picks up the blitzes, mariotta will torch us.
Solid play from our front four, and disruption from a myriad of LB blitzes is the key.
Not surprised you missed the point.
This is a good post and I don't disagree. We are discussing whether two years of Slingblade have degraded UO to the point that one partial year of Petermen can raise UW to victory. Coaching is more important. I watched a red shirt freshman QB fuck up a few times and still lead Arizona to a win at Autzen. If Petermen gets the guys to believe I like Washington in this one. I did pick them, I just think it is still a pretty big upset
MikeDamone
Well-known poster
I think UW is or two years away yet. After that, the tables will be turned. Oregon is on its way to down. Not to the level they were, but will be down quite a bit.
Talking about the ten wins in a row a false narrative. It doesn't tell the whole story. UW went through the worst stretch in their history while Oregon went though it's best. The odds of that happening were low and even lower in the future. Shit, most teams had a several game win streak going against UW, it wasn't that hard. Add to that Oregon was beating everyone. I think they have a 10-2 record against UCLA since 2000. In 2006 and 2007 Oregon was average. But UW sucked ass. In the Sark years, UW was average, but Oregon was at the top of their game. It's been a while since both teams were either both petty good, or pretty shitty at the same time.
Last edited: