doogsinparadise
New Fish
And @RoadDawg55 once again proves that he can't see the forest through the weeds ...
I just took a quick look at a 5-year trending of SRS for the 12 teams in the PAC and if I get around to it this weekend I'll put some charts/thoughts together on the topic. As Chest mentioned, we're better per the metrics this year than we were last year (currently 38th versus 41st last year). Moreover, if you look at the 5 year trending of UW, it's been since 2011: 57, 49, 13, 41, 38.
The last time we had what we thought was a massive rebuilding season (2012) not only were we a better team than we thought (in hindsight), but it also provided the spring board into what should have been a high end team in 2013.
Think back to what was in place in 2013:
3-year starter at QB
Depth at the skill positions
Foundation built for strong defensive team
These are characteristics that you're looking for when looking for teams that should be contenders to win their conference/division. But instead, what we found was a mentally soft team that didn't perform well when they were punched in the mouth.
Now, setting every single thing to the side about what Pete has or has not done well yet, the one thing that I don't think anybody can argue with is that comparatively to the Sarkisian coached teams, the Pete coached teams have shown a consistent ability to play hard for 60 minutes and outscore teams over the 2nd half. When they get punched and knocked down, they have a resiliency to get back up and punch back. That's not by chance. That's a mentality being built into the program. Something that will serve this program well in the long run.
In the 5 year SRS trends for Washington that I mentioned above, I also think that it is important to note where UW stands in relation to the average SRS of the conference over that period: 52.3, 42.9, 29.8, 36.8, and 44.3. Only in 2013 and 2015 has UW fielded a team that is considered an above average team in the conference. I do think that this is important to keep in mind.
There has been a lot of talk about record and whatnot (with reason) and included in that has been a consideration of how the Cougs have done this year so far. And, without taking anything away from them, they are only responsible for playing those on the schedule as they come. But at the same time, it's why looking at records midway through the year can be a bit of a challenge and misleading. After all, why according to SRS is UW (an under .500 team) ranked at 38 while the Cougs and their gaudy 5-2 record is at 63? Let's take away the names of the teams that each has played (excluding the D2 teams) and instead compare the SRS's of the teams that they have played YTD and what remains on their schedule:
UW:
@ 40: L
vs 66: W
vs 28: L
@ 10: W
vs 51: L
@ 8: L
vs 64: TBD
vs 11: TBD
@ 54: TBD
@ 97: TBD
vs 63: TBD
WSU:
@78: W
vs 125: W
@ 28: L
@ 51: W
vs 97: W
@ 64: W
vs 8: TBD
vs 54: TBD
@ 18: TBD
vs 90: TBD
@ 38: TBD
The big takeaways here are that UW's schedule that they've played so far this year has been a challenge. They've probably lost the games that they should have (barring the USC game) and won the games that they should have (barring Oregon, although I think that their numbers are slightly skewed lower with Adams missing most of the year so far). Switch the order of the games with Wazzu where we play Oregon without Adams/Carrington and Cougs play with Adams/Carrington, the results are probably switched. Is that an excuse? No. UW still had enough chances to win the game on their own merits. But it also goes to show that when you play teams and what injuries they have at the time does matter.
A second takeaway from the UW standpoint is that the schedule gets very friendly over the next few weeks. Assuming Browning plays, the Arizona game at home looks very winnable as does the game at Oregon State. The Cougs and Arizona are very comparable skill level teams and getting the Cougs at home makes that also very winnable. Arizona State is probably a toss up game on the road. Utah at home is definitely one that on paper we probably aren't supposed to win. However, given the general performance this year, we shouldn't expect to be blown out either.
The Cougs look like the sexy team right now because they are 3-1 in conference. But by the numbers, they look at best like a 5-4 conference team as they should lose to Stanford, @ UCLA, and at best split the ASU/UW games. In contrast, UW looks to be down on the luck by having a front loaded schedule sitting at 1-3 but there's at least 3 winnable games remaining on the schedule and very possibly a 4th. Switch Utah/Colorado between the two teams and there's not even a debate. As @HeretoBeatmyChest talks about, given that schedules are not comparable anymore, even for teams in the same division, you do have to look just a little further under the rug when trying to figure out where teams are at in the process.
The only year in the last 4 where UW has gone backwards (so far for 2015) is last year ... which is really when Pete "blew it up" while also inheriting nothing at the QB position that has magnified the shortcomings of Smith (which may be a blessing in disguise in the long run). Even when you go back and look at the losses from last year, generally speaking, UW has been losing to the teams that they are supposed to lose to and beating the teams that they should beat (last year's losses and SRS as follows, recall UW's SRS last year was 41):
vs Stanford: 20
@ Oregon: 1
vs Arizona St: 16
vs UCLA: 14
@ Arizona: 22
vs Oklahoma St: 65
The only outlier on this list is Oklahoma St who meandered through a forgettable 2014 season before turning to a true frosh QB in November, growing up a bit during the month, getting better with the 15 bowl practices, and is now sitting undefeated this year and ranked 22nd in SRS).
So really, when you look at it, the biggest complaint (outside of Smith/Pease) that you can have with the program at this point is that it's winning the games that it is supposed to and not finding ways to win a lot of games that it isn't. In my mind, that's something that you don't really start seeing until the depth of a program's culture is fully developed.
And not that this should be terribly surprising for those that pay attention, but the programs in the conference that are in big trouble right now in terms of trending are Oregon (from 2011-2014, SRS was never outside of 5, 51 this year) and Arizona St (54th this year, has gone up from 7th in 2013 to 16th in 2014). Arizona's downturn this year would be a red flag in my mind that's too early to call on whether or not their injury problems are the main cause or whether it's Rich Rod being Rich Rod. UCLA has also slightly gotten worse since 2013 but the level of talent that they bring in continues to keep them in the top 20. Also, perhaps not surprisingly, Kyle Whittingham is a good coach as over the last few years the fruits of Utah joining the PAC and being able to recruit better athletes (compared to their first few years in the league playing with Mountain West players weekly in the PAC) is paying off as they've gone from 60th in SRS in 2012 to 11th this year.
Jesus fucking christ dude, have you even been watching the games? I don't need to read a fucking novella on SRS to see that the coaching staff has blown 3-4 games over the past year and a half. They're close to losing the team, and they've clearly already lost the fans.
I'd love to know which 3-4 games that were blown. @TheChart rightfully said that plays needed to be run against Arizona last year and that you couldn't just take a knee and run the clock out. Failure to run the clock out results in a punt situation (see Michigan vs Michigan St) or a game last year involving I believe East Carolina where one of the teams took a knee to leave essentially a hail mary attempt against them and then were scored on. Would you be saying that Harbaugh blew the Michigan St game?
As harsh as it may be, the head coach needs to take responsibility for putting in the third string rb on a crucial series at the end of the game. Want praise, take responsibility.
It's why I've said that the offseason is going to be the crucial part of Petersen's tenure in how he fixes the offense, fires Smith (and Pease), and what he does for replacements. Doing nothing WILL lose the team.
As for the fans, honestly, at this point, fuck them. This was going to be a long year regardless. People are generally irrational and citing attendance on a night where the majority are not going to go out of their way to watch a rebuilding team when there are plenty of other alternatives for entertainment isn't exactly going out on a limb.
As I said before the season, I thought that there was a lot more talent on this team than people were giving credit for and will still be surprised if they don't make it to a bowl game. I will be far from shocked if we don't end up going 4-1 to end the season. I think that that is very, very doable.
LOL.
