Expectations

I've said 8 wins minimum before a bowl win even with whatever TBS o-line issue there is. The B1G is the richest conference but not the best conference. Why Michigan could just have Caramel Popcorn Douche sit back and hit a few 3rd down layups a game all season long.
 
YellowSnow said:
I've got no expectations for 2024. It's a write off year. I'd be shocked if we were better than 7-5.

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I don't think it's impossible but I think people are underestimating how bad of a season 4-8 be. If they don't lose a non-conference game (and they shouldnt) that means they win one conference game. The 2021 season took some epic fuck ups by Lake to only win four games, including losing to an FCS team and they had road game against a Final Four team. The Pac-12 was soft at the top but was really deep and middle strong with the worst team ironically being Fisch's 1-11 squad who probably should have beaten Jimmy but got bailed out by a Tuli int.
 
WoolleyDoog said:
I don't think it's impossible but I think people are underestimating how bad of a season 4-8 be. If they don't lose a non-conference game (and they shouldnt) that means they win one conference game. The 2021 season took some epic fuck ups by Lake to only win four games, including losing to an FCS team and they had road game against a Final Four team. The Pac-12 was soft at the top but was really deep and middle strong with the worst team ironically being Fisch's 1-11 squad who probably should have beaten Jimmy but got bailed out by a Tuli int.
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Washington is a program that is very easy to see bad seasons incoming. It's rather simple.

Gilbertson, Willingham, Lake. The three horsemen of the apocalypse and the reason why WASHINGTON is no longer viewed as a juggernaut program (Ty is the middle and biggest horse and bears 81% of the responsibility).

At UW, first time P5 Head Coaches promoted from within will fail. Lambo was the best of the bunch, the others were disasters. Gilby was a lazy hire that should never have been made. He cratered fast and quickly and was canned.

Lake was an optimistic hire, but the writing was on the wall with the Donovan hire. That was a head scratcher for even the doogliest of doogs, and it played out about as well as expected. A weird covid season playing every game at home deluded us and probably prolonged the experiment, or maybe Pete coaching needed 2 years to wash out. There was some hope for a good defense and running the damn ball, but the program turned out to be soft and the scheme was the worst in all of college football.

Willingham sucked at Notre Dame so it didn't take a genius to see he'd suck at UW. That he was allowed to suck for as long and as hard as he did is a travesty.

In review, UW cannot promote from within and cannot hire coaches who have sucked elsewhere. Sark was a risky hire and brought the program back to life to some degree, but UW should never hire an assistant coach again.

Hiring proven coaches at the P5 and G5 level tends to go really fucking well.

For this reason, Fisch is going to do well here. For how long is the bigger question.
 
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I expected 9 wins because I thought a little more impact would portal in.
I don't expect more than 7 though. I don't see this team coming out sharp. It lacks continuity, lacks impact defensive tackles, and the OL could be a real shit show.
Let's see if there's a pattern to Fisch taking a little time to get his reads down. UW could be bad early and good late but the schedule gets tough late.
 
Fish and crew know how to put guys in positions to succeed, they will pull off a win that they otherwise shouldn't have this season. PGOS and I have said a minimum of 8 and I will stick to that. The Defense will be good, perhaps even with last season or a touch better or worse. The offense will surprise, we finally will have a little depth at RB, good QB, an athletic but unproven OL that will surprise yet underwhelm because they need more tim, WR's and TE will be good but not as good as last season. Special teams will be special. 8-9 wins, with potential for 10, Fisch seriously believes he can make a push at playoffs because his dudes know more foosball than the other dudes on the other sideline, We'll see
 
haie said:
The staff is paid like and publicly talks about what great coaches and developers they are. and obviously, they know they're following a staff that just lost 3 games in two years.
I keep going back to the fact that it would be weird to succeed at Arizona (completely bottomed out, 0wen Arizona) but would somehow fail at Washington. It doesn't make a lot of sense.
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There is a lot of luck involved. Sometimes coaches with the perfect resume still fail. Because they got lucky with some kind of circumstances at the previous stop. Or some small change early in their tenure set them on a completely different course.
It’s always a crapshoot and most of it doesn’t end up making sense except in hindsight.
 
FremontTroll said:
haie said:
The staff is paid like and publicly talks about what great coaches and developers they are. and obviously, they know they're following a staff that just lost 3 games in two years.
I keep going back to the fact that it would be weird to succeed at Arizona (completely bottomed out, 0wen Arizona) but would somehow fail at Washington. It doesn't make a lot of sense.
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There is a lot of luck involved. Sometimes coaches with the perfect resume still fail. Because they got lucky with some kind of circumstances at the previous stop. Or some small change early in their tenure set them on a completely different course.
It’s always a crapshoot and most of it doesn’t end up making sense except in hindsight.
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I don't think you can luck your way into a 10 win season at a basketball school that bottomed out and then go beat Oklahoma in a bowl but in general yes I agree. He did dodge Oregon, but he also gave away a wins @ SC and MudDawg. DeBoer couldn't even prison rape Utah at home the way he did in SLC.
 
haie said:
FremontTroll said:
haie said:
The staff is paid like and publicly talks about what great coaches and developers they are. and obviously, they know they're following a staff that just lost 3 games in two years.
I keep going back to the fact that it would be weird to succeed at Arizona (completely bottomed out, 0wen Arizona) but would somehow fail at Washington. It doesn't make a lot of sense.
Click to expand...
There is a lot of luck involved. Sometimes coaches with the perfect resume still fail. Because they got lucky with some kind of circumstances at the previous stop. Or some small change early in their tenure set them on a completely different course.
It’s always a crapshoot and most of it doesn’t end up making sense except in hindsight.
Click to expand...
I don't think you can luck your way into a 10 win season at a basketball school that bottomed out and then go beat Oklahoma in a bowl but in general yes I agree. He did dodge Oregon, but he also gave away a wins @ SC and MudDawg. DeBoer couldn't even prison rape Utah at home the way he did in SLC.
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I don’t think you can have that kind of turnaround without a lot of luck.

What if Fifita had gotten a USC or UCLA offer and he never gets the servite trio? There are a million other what ifs. It’s a cutthroat business with an extremely small margin for error.
Fisch has about the best chance of any new hire given he did have success once already at the P5 level but there have been plenty of other coaches like that that failed and ended up forgotten.
 
After we beat Arizona a bunch of people here were joking that that we were close to losing to a MW/G5 quarterback. Now some were pissed that he didn't bring him over here.
Fisch's staff out-scouted to get them where they are, mixing in a few victories like McMillan.
 
haie said:
After we beat Arizona a bunch of people here were joking that that we were close to losing to a MW/G5 quarterback. Now some were pissed that he didn't bring him over here.
Fisch's staff out-scouted to get them where they are, mixing in a few victories like McMillan.
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He's clearly a good coach, they actually played defense, which nobody seems to talk about.
 
There's luck involved in everything so playing some of these what ifs is pointless. What we do know is what happened with Fisch taking over as bad of a program as the conference ever had, instantly made them better then led them to one of the best seasons the program has ever had in one of the strongest seasons in conference history. He also recruited/developed a handful of draft picks at a program that really struggled to do that in recent history.
Rewatching the Arizona/UW games from the past two years, both times his teams were out of it but they stayed steady and consistent and got back in the game late.
They played the Kwiatkowski prevent D as well as anyone and forced UW to just take small shots mostly and tackled well while locking up Odunze and Polk as well as anyone did. I'd be very interested how the defense was run. I can't get myself to believe Nansen could do shit as a DC, so was Fisch also overlooking that unit?
Fifita played well but he was put in really good positions with the scheme and his pieces around him. de Laura rightfully gets a lot of shit and was a loose cannon but he was even better in Husky Stadium in 2022 than Fifita was in 2023.
Would have been crazy interesting had they not lost to USC in 3OT and it was a rematch with them in Vegas.
 
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