Its from the same guy I posted last week. I hope everything he says comes true.
This is Oregon's last shot at beating Washington for maybe a decade, as these two programs are headed in starkly different directions. One just hired a Hall of Fame coach who's the Pac-12's best hope to produce the league's first national title since Pete Carroll; the other is sinking under the league's greenest coaching staff.
Superstar Marcus Mariota is carrying the Ducks, both on the field and in terms of the unusually heavy leadership burden placed on the captain of a team with only a handful of proven veterans and more than a third of its players in their first year with the program. The offensive line has thus far been unable to protect Mariota, and if he gets hurt, this team could lose every remaining game on the schedule. With Mariota, the offense is still humming pretty well, but the defense ranks among the nation's bottom 20 in allowing total yards, first downs, passing yards and third-down conversions. We projected an unranked finish for Oregon in February, and that still looks about right. Can the Ducks pull off one more win in a series they've dominated for years? It's a toss-up, even at home against an opponent still learning how to play winning football.
Washington is a rising power that already looks like it can compete with anyone in the Pac-12 despite showing few signs of playing like a Chris Petersen team just yet. The Huskies are inefficient offensively, and have generated few explosive plays. Penalties have piled up, execution is inconsistent and ball security remains an issue. The Huskies lead the nation in turnover margin, but that's thanks to star linebacker Shaq Thompson and a ball-hawking defense that's been torturing the offense since the beginning of camp. The Huskies have put the ball on the ground 11 times -- third worst in the Pac-12 -- and have enjoyed the unsustainable good fortune of recovering all but one of those fumbles. This is a shell of the team it will be next year and beyond, yet it's fast-improving and it's already pretty good.
ATS Pick: Washington
Score: Washington 35, Oregon 31