Election Poll - Call It

Election Poll - Call It

  • Trump wins this thing and it isn't close! Dementia never even got its' boots on...

    Votes: 10 16.1%

  • Trump in a tight one because all the poles are bullshit.

    Votes: 15 24.2%

  • Trump in a contested election that the SCOTUS (by SCOTUS I mean Barrett) decides.

    Votes: 5 8.1%

  • Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.

    Votes: 10 16.1%

  • Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.

    Votes: 13 21.0%

  • Biden in a contested election because Barrett isn't seated and Roberts is a giant faggot.

    Votes: 4 6.5%

  • The idiot Injun is stupid and the correct answer is:

    Votes: 5 8.1%
  • Total voters
    62
The corruption in Philly sure looks like its going to be too much.

Best case is ACB on the court on Monday, goes to the supreme court, struck down the same week... Even then, if they are openly accepting non matched ballots they will just do it anyways.

Trump will have to win MI, WI, AZ if he drops PA.

AZ easy pickup as long as nothing big happens, Maybe WI is actually in play looking at the party breakdown of mail in and early voting...
 
One of the most telling items I have read on polling, which I can not find right now, is that 50% of likely voters that have stated Biden are folks that are anti-Trump not pro Biden.

So if the Red at 41% even has 10% that are voting Biden that puts advantage Biden in Wiscy.

Unfortunately we will never know that answer - do they ever give out the number of registered voters that voted against their own party?

but then I could be blowing it out my ass which Mrs Lebam says happens way too often
 
One of the most telling items I have read on polling, which I can not find right now, is that 50% of likely voters that have stated Biden are folks that are anti-Trump not pro Biden.

So if the Red at 41% even has 10% that are voting Biden that puts advantage Biden in Wiscy.

Unfortunately we will never know that answer - do they ever give out the number of registered voters that voted against their own party?

but then I could be blowing it out my ass which Mrs Lebam says happens way too often
Click to expand...

most small timer models are pushing a crude 5% republican for Biden, 10% dem for Trump.

It varies a few percentages with state, age, demographic, voting frequency and a bunch of other stuff... pretty subjective variable in the model...

Most are taking the general idea that if you voted for Trump in 2016, you are probably voting for him again.
 
One of the most telling items I have read on polling, which I can not find right now, is that 50% of likely voters that have stated Biden are folks that are anti-Trump not pro Biden.

So if the Red at 41% even has 10% that are voting Biden that puts advantage Biden in Wiscy.

Unfortunately we will never know that answer - do they ever give out the number of registered voters that voted against their own party?

but then I could be blowing it out my ass which Mrs Lebam says happens way too often
Click to expand...

most small timer models are pushing a crude 5% republican for Biden, 10% dem for Trump.

It varies a few percentages with state, age, demographic, voting frequency and a bunch of other stuff... pretty subjective variable in the model...

Most are taking the general idea that if you voted for Trump in 2016, you are probably voting for him again.
Click to expand...

so kind of a SWAG
 
One of the most telling items I have read on polling, which I can not find right now, is that 50% of likely voters that have stated Biden are folks that are anti-Trump not pro Biden.

So if the Red at 41% even has 10% that are voting Biden that puts advantage Biden in Wiscy.

Unfortunately we will never know that answer - do they ever give out the number of registered voters that voted against their own party?

but then I could be blowing it out my ass which Mrs Lebam says happens way too often
Click to expand...

most small timer models are pushing a crude 5% republican for Biden, 10% dem for Trump.

It varies a few percentages with state, age, demographic, voting frequency and a bunch of other stuff... pretty subjective variable in the model...

Most are taking the general idea that if you voted for Trump in 2016, you are probably voting for him again.
Click to expand...

so kind of a SWAG
Click to expand...

yeah, a small one and one that will likely favor republicans this time around.
 
Repubs voted Trump 95% in the primary...one of the highest % for a candidate running for reelection. There are some Repubs that won’t vote for him, but it’s not a significant amount.

They are going to really have to cheat in Philly...the rest of the state is much more favorable to Trump this time around. It is going to be egregious, and they still will likely get away with it.

If Trump wins Wisconsin and Minnesota it won’t matter, but that is asking a lot.
 
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I still feel good about my prediction. I’m also happy to be moving to Idaho next weekend before Washington burns.
Click to expand...

The 509 is safe. Just higher gas prices.

The fire line will be at Vantage. No winter burning East of that.
 
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I still feel good about my prediction. I’m also happy to be moving to Idaho next weekend before Washington burns.
Click to expand...

The 509 is safe. Just higher gas prices.

The fire line will be at Vantage. No winter burning East of that.
Click to expand...

Lewis county will probably be fine too. The rest of the I-5 corridor could be a shitshow tho.
 
I still feel good about my prediction. I’m also happy to be moving to Idaho next weekend before Washington burns.
Click to expand...

The 509 is safe. Just higher gas prices.

The fire line will be at Vantage. No winter burning East of that.
Click to expand...

Lewis county will probably be fine too. The rest of the I-5 corridor could be a shitshow tho.
Click to expand...

I hope so - I am 15 miles past Pe Ell in Pacific county. If Lewis falls, the Willapa Valley is close behind
 
I live in Bellevue and Saturday night’s little tantrum was barely felt. The carnage will be concentrated in DT Seattle.

Boats with trump flags out all over Juanita Bay in Saturday around lunch time.
 
PA
https://twitter.com/pollwatch2020/status/1320776658824036352?s=21
Click to expand...

Tiny sample size, Philly ballot laundering is off the charts, no chance in PA.

Trump is going to have to win WI, MI, AZ
Click to expand...

Trump has PA rather easily, but thar’s just my gut.

A sample size of 400 is large for a single state like PA. Most national polls sample ~1000 out of 340 million people. 400 in PA, which has less than 13 million citizens.

Statistically, the PA poll should be more accurate than any national poll.
 
PA
https://twitter.com/pollwatch2020/status/1320776658824036352?s=21
Click to expand...

Tiny sample size, Philly ballot laundering is off the charts, no chance in PA.

Trump is going to have to win WI, MI, AZ
Click to expand...

Trump has PA rather easily, but thar’s just my gut.

A sample size of 400 is large for a single state like PA. Most national polls sample ~1000 out of 340 million people. 400 in PA, which has less than 13 million citizens.

Statistically, the PA poll should be more accurate than any national poll.
Click to expand...

Any sample size above 30 should be statistically relevant IF it is random enough in its sample selection.
 
The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
 
In a weird way a strong black vote for trump could heal quite a bit nationally. Unless CNN wants to call 30M people uncle toms
 
Played around with an electoral map today. Nothing groundbreaking in my analysis, but I think PA and NC are keys. And if Trump loses one of Michigan and Wisconsin he has to win both PA and NC to win re-election. Just my two cents.
 
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