Brandon Kaho Commemorative Collegiate Career Impact Forecast - 2019 Results

[Bread]

Sorry for this being so spread out, but I've been traveling and I incorrectly thought I could finish it up last night, and again before my flight this morning.

Coach grades[/b] which are likely a bit out of date given the Puka news

Flunking out and soon doing mid-level-marketing tier:
Lubick[/b] - 0.03 GPA, with his only 2 Ds coming from @Saracen and @Samoyed
Paopao[/b] - 0.17 GPA, with an A from @bread (I assume a typo, but maybe not?) and 7 people who gave him a D
Bhonapha[/b] - 1.28 GPA, with 4 Bs from @KrunkJuice @1to392831weretaken @AlCzervik and @Bread - they all must have been super happy with Cam Davis

Likely gonna end up in retail tier:
Hamdan[/b] - 1.91 GPA, if he fixes the offense, NOGAF about his recruiting. Got his only A from @AlCzervik and Fs from @DoogCourics @Neighbor2972 and @NorwegianHusky
Harris[/b] - 2.02 GPA, an enigma wrapped in a question this year, given he was mostly focused on 2020 guys. Or at least that's what we're hoping given his 2019 performance. Received As from @1to392831weretaken and @Saracen , but Fs from @kh83 @theknowledge @Mad_Son and @NorwegianHusky

Had a good year and mom won't complain too much tier:
Kwiatkowski[/b] - 2.97 GPA, which is probably 2.95 points higher than his 2016-2018 rating would have been. Got Ds from @Samoyed and @jhfstyle24
Gregory[/b] - 3.02 GPA, which is also way over his career average. Ds from @ImHuskyYouFat @Mad_Son and @Rubberfist . Who else did you guys want him to get?

Honor roll:
Huff[/b] - 3.48 GPA, with all As and Bs
Lake[/b] - 3.88 GPA with only 8 Bs
Malloe[/b] - 3.96 GPA with 2 Bs from @HuskyJW and @Bread who I guess wanted Wright/Ika as well?

Overall:
Coach Pete[/b] had a GPA of 2.89, which I think would likely be a bit higher with the Puka news. @Swaye gave him an F and @NorwegianHusky gave him a D, but everyone else was C or above.

Given the dooging that occurred in the BKCCCIF numbers, it came as no surprise to me that 86% of you believe Sav'ell Smalls will sign with UW[/b] next year.

Lastly, the doogliest grader was none other than @Tequilla who AVERAGED a 4.18 on his ratings, while @whatshouldicareabout averaged only a 3.18 (only a slight step above this year's departing class).

Congrats to @TTJ for being the highest correlation with the group on his ratings, while @Samoyed had the lowest correlation.

If you guys liked this, I'll try to do it again next year. Suggestions are welcome.

I'm the most pessimistic one here? Just curious, who was 2nd?

@NorwegianHusky was a close runner up to you.

You have sorted lists of lowest to highest averages and lowest to highest correlation with the group right?

Yes, but I didn't think anyone was super interested beyond the extremes. I will post top/bottom 5 of each tomorrow.

I think correlation is a bit tricky here too, because people could be projecting outlier events (e.g., Turner doesn't enroll, Latu gains weight and loses a few steps) that make their scores differ from consensus. Ranking how good they are now is one thing, but predicting the future comes with more potential variability. Just not sure it is super meaningful.

Better make a box plot for everyone.

 

[Sources]

Sorry for this being so spread out, but I've been traveling and I incorrectly thought I could finish it up last night, and again before my flight this morning.

Coach grades[/b] which are likely a bit out of date given the Puka news

Flunking out and soon doing mid-level-marketing tier:
Lubick[/b] - 0.03 GPA, with his only 2 Ds coming from @Saracen and @Samoyed
Paopao[/b] - 0.17 GPA, with an A from @bread (I assume a typo, but maybe not?) and 7 people who gave him a D
Bhonapha[/b] - 1.28 GPA, with 4 Bs from @KrunkJuice @1to392831weretaken @AlCzervik and @Bread - they all must have been super happy with Cam Davis

Likely gonna end up in retail tier:
Hamdan[/b] - 1.91 GPA, if he fixes the offense, NOGAF about his recruiting. Got his only A from @AlCzervik and Fs from @DoogCourics @Neighbor2972 and @NorwegianHusky
Harris[/b] - 2.02 GPA, an enigma wrapped in a question this year, given he was mostly focused on 2020 guys. Or at least that's what we're hoping given his 2019 performance. Received As from @1to392831weretaken and @Saracen , but Fs from @kh83 @theknowledge @Mad_Son and @NorwegianHusky

Had a good year and mom won't complain too much tier:
Kwiatkowski[/b] - 2.97 GPA, which is probably 2.95 points higher than his 2016-2018 rating would have been. Got Ds from @Samoyed and @jhfstyle24
Gregory[/b] - 3.02 GPA, which is also way over his career average. Ds from @ImHuskyYouFat @Mad_Son and @Rubberfist . Who else did you guys want him to get?

Honor roll:
Huff[/b] - 3.48 GPA, with all As and Bs
Lake[/b] - 3.88 GPA with only 8 Bs
Malloe[/b] - 3.96 GPA with 2 Bs from @HuskyJW and @Bread who I guess wanted Wright/Ika as well?

Overall:
Coach Pete[/b] had a GPA of 2.89, which I think would likely be a bit higher with the Puka news. @Swaye gave him an F and @NorwegianHusky gave him a D, but everyone else was C or above.

Given the dooging that occurred in the BKCCCIF numbers, it came as no surprise to me that 86% of you believe Sav'ell Smalls will sign with UW[/b] next year.

Lastly, the doogliest grader was none other than @Tequilla who AVERAGED a 4.18 on his ratings, while @whatshouldicareabout averaged only a 3.18 (only a slight step above this year's departing class).

Congrats to @TTJ for being the highest correlation with the group on his ratings, while @Samoyed had the lowest correlation.

If you guys liked this, I'll try to do it again next year. Suggestions are welcome.

@Bread gave Paopao, Bonerpooper, and Malloe the same grade. Let that sink in.

 

[HillsboroDuck]

Sorry for this being so spread out, but I've been traveling and I incorrectly thought I could finish it up last night, and again before my flight this morning.

Coach grades[/b] which are likely a bit out of date given the Puka news

Flunking out and soon doing mid-level-marketing tier:
Lubick[/b] - 0.03 GPA, with his only 2 Ds coming from @Saracen and @Samoyed
Paopao[/b] - 0.17 GPA, with an A from @bread (I assume a typo, but maybe not?) and 7 people who gave him a D
Bhonapha[/b] - 1.28 GPA, with 4 Bs from @KrunkJuice @1to392831weretaken @AlCzervik and @Bread - they all must have been super happy with Cam Davis

Likely gonna end up in retail tier:
Hamdan[/b] - 1.91 GPA, if he fixes the offense, NOGAF about his recruiting. Got his only A from @AlCzervik and Fs from @DoogCourics @Neighbor2972 and @NorwegianHusky
Harris[/b] - 2.02 GPA, an enigma wrapped in a question this year, given he was mostly focused on 2020 guys. Or at least that's what we're hoping given his 2019 performance. Received As from @1to392831weretaken and @Saracen , but Fs from @kh83 @theknowledge @Mad_Son and @NorwegianHusky

Had a good year and mom won't complain too much tier:
Kwiatkowski[/b] - 2.97 GPA, which is probably 2.95 points higher than his 2016-2018 rating would have been. Got Ds from @Samoyed and @jhfstyle24
Gregory[/b] - 3.02 GPA, which is also way over his career average. Ds from @ImHuskyYouFat @Mad_Son and @Rubberfist . Who else did you guys want him to get?

Honor roll:
Huff[/b] - 3.48 GPA, with all As and Bs
Lake[/b] - 3.88 GPA with only 8 Bs
Malloe[/b] - 3.96 GPA with 2 Bs from @HuskyJW and @Bread who I guess wanted Wright/Ika as well?

Overall:
Coach Pete[/b] had a GPA of 2.89, which I think would likely be a bit higher with the Puka news. @Swaye gave him an F and @NorwegianHusky gave him a D, but everyone else was C or above.

Given the dooging that occurred in the BKCCCIF numbers, it came as no surprise to me that 86% of you believe Sav'ell Smalls will sign with UW[/b] next year.

Lastly, the doogliest grader was none other than @Tequilla who AVERAGED a 4.18 on his ratings, while @whatshouldicareabout averaged only a 3.18 (only a slight step above this year's departing class).

Congrats to @TTJ for being the highest correlation with the group on his ratings, while @Samoyed had the lowest correlation.

If you guys liked this, I'll try to do it again next year. Suggestions are welcome.

@Bread gave Paopao, Bonerpooper, and Malloe the same grade. Let that sink in.

DISAGREE.

He? gave Boner and Malloe Bs and Powpow an A.

 

[Sources]

Sorry for this being so spread out, but I've been traveling and I incorrectly thought I could finish it up last night, and again before my flight this morning.

Coach grades[/b] which are likely a bit out of date given the Puka news

Flunking out and soon doing mid-level-marketing tier:
Lubick[/b] - 0.03 GPA, with his only 2 Ds coming from @Saracen and @Samoyed
Paopao[/b] - 0.17 GPA, with an A from @bread (I assume a typo, but maybe not?) and 7 people who gave him a D
Bhonapha[/b] - 1.28 GPA, with 4 Bs from @KrunkJuice @1to392831weretaken @AlCzervik and @Bread - they all must have been super happy with Cam Davis

Likely gonna end up in retail tier:
Hamdan[/b] - 1.91 GPA, if he fixes the offense, NOGAF about his recruiting. Got his only A from @AlCzervik and Fs from @DoogCourics @Neighbor2972 and @NorwegianHusky
Harris[/b] - 2.02 GPA, an enigma wrapped in a question this year, given he was mostly focused on 2020 guys. Or at least that's what we're hoping given his 2019 performance. Received As from @1to392831weretaken and @Saracen , but Fs from @kh83 @theknowledge @Mad_Son and @NorwegianHusky

Had a good year and mom won't complain too much tier:
Kwiatkowski[/b] - 2.97 GPA, which is probably 2.95 points higher than his 2016-2018 rating would have been. Got Ds from @Samoyed and @jhfstyle24
Gregory[/b] - 3.02 GPA, which is also way over his career average. Ds from @ImHuskyYouFat @Mad_Son and @Rubberfist . Who else did you guys want him to get?

Honor roll:
Huff[/b] - 3.48 GPA, with all As and Bs
Lake[/b] - 3.88 GPA with only 8 Bs
Malloe[/b] - 3.96 GPA with 2 Bs from @HuskyJW and @Bread who I guess wanted Wright/Ika as well?

Overall:
Coach Pete[/b] had a GPA of 2.89, which I think would likely be a bit higher with the Puka news. @Swaye gave him an F and @NorwegianHusky gave him a D, but everyone else was C or above.

Given the dooging that occurred in the BKCCCIF numbers, it came as no surprise to me that 86% of you believe Sav'ell Smalls will sign with UW[/b] next year.

Lastly, the doogliest grader was none other than @Tequilla who AVERAGED a 4.18 on his ratings, while @whatshouldicareabout averaged only a 3.18 (only a slight step above this year's departing class).

Congrats to @TTJ for being the highest correlation with the group on his ratings, while @Samoyed had the lowest correlation.

If you guys liked this, I'll try to do it again next year. Suggestions are welcome.

@Bread gave Paopao, Bonerpooper, and Malloe the same grade. Let that sink in.

DISAGREE.

He? gave Boner and Malloe Bs and Powpow an A.

Ah, you're right. It's worse than I thought.

 

[Woof]

Tried to post this yesterday, but my post was held up for validation.

I jumped the gun a bit, and @NorwegianHusky was not the runner up on lowest score, but he was one of the early leaders and finished tied for 6th.

Highest average scores:
1) @Tequilla - 4.18
T2) @Edwin_Bambino and @Samoyed - 4.09
T4) @insinceredawg @KrunkJuice @AlCzervik @seatownfunk and @HUSKYFANATIC - 4.00

Lowest average scores:
1) @whatshouldicareabout - 3.09
2) @biak1 - 3.14
3) @spuden - 3.18
T4) @Houhusky and @Neighbor2972 - 3.23

Highest correlation with results (scholarship guys only):
1) @TTJ - 0.951
2) @FKA_Mousecop - 0.941
3) @backthepack - 0.930
4) @DawgFader - 0.926
5) @BeerThirty - 0.918

Lowest correlation with results (scholarship guys only):
1) @Samoyed - 0.429 (Graded out with 3 5s, 18 4s, and a single 3 to Dylan Morris)
2) @HuskyJW - 0.549
3) @GreenRiverGatorz - 0.588
4) @bananasnblondes - 0.591
5) @ImHuskyYouFat - 0.594

 

[Woof]

 

[Edwin_Bambino]

I’m doogin lol

 

[Houhusky]

Hmm, and I thought I was overly optimistic/generous.

The scores seem a tad skewed, there are going to be a few players that flame out or never contribute but no one really wants to give a 1 or 2.

Seems like most people graded most of the recruits on a 3-5 scale?

Giving the class an average predictive grade of 3.7+ doesn't seem realistic.

Most players are going to end up like a Jaylen Johnson or Tevis "3"... More will flame out as 1s or 2s than achieve All-American MMFG 5s.

@Woof How does the percentage distribution of 1-5 grades compare to the Jesse Callier grades given out historically? Also how have the average Jesse Callier grades changed over time?

Thanks, leave it on my desk, Ill be back after lunch.

 

[Woof]

I know you are being sarcastic, but I was curious about that too, so I will do that sometime next week.

 

[Swaye]

@TheChart WTF man. I mean really, WHAT THE FUCK?

 

[guntlove]

FREE PUB!!{!!11!

 

[DoogCourics]

I don’t know if this means I’m good or bad at this.

@UW_Doog_Bot please to be helping me.

In the meantime I’m going to just assume I did awesome.

View attachment 16902

 

[TTJ]

So much free pub. I’m gonna quit my day job and start a pod.

 

[UW_Doog_Bot]

I don’t know if this means I’m good or bad at this.

@UW_Doog_Bot please to be helping me.

In the meantime I’m going to just assume I did awesome.

View attachment 16902

SO....I guess this is interesting if you care if your grading matches up with what the whole HH group graded out on average but isn't really meaningful unless you care about being in-sync with the hive mind, including the idiots like @Bread.

Now, there is some "wisdom in crowds" and "balance of optimism" stuff that occurs over a large enough sample so I guess having a high correlation with the net score is "maybe" a good thing. Then again, an expert opinion like that of @CokeGreaterThanPepsi might deviate significantly from the norm since we are all relatively un-expert opinions and therefore he could have a low correlation while being very correct in his assessment. Call it the Ballz factor.

TLDM(ath) This chart is mostly meaningless without the matching JC rankings in 3-5 years for these players. Feel free to give yourself a participation trophy though since I failed to even submit my answers.

 

[UW_Doog_Bot]

What MIGHT be interesting is if you took the net HH scores and matched them up against the recruiting rankings/grades and see where there were significant differences. Guys like KamFab who may have been more or less overlooked but we fell in love with. Similar to how we always compare 247 and composite to see where there might be bias.

 

[DoogCourics]

I don’t know if this means I’m good or bad at this.

@UW_Doog_Bot please to be helping me.

In the meantime I’m going to just assume I did awesome.

View attachment 16902

SO....I guess this is interesting if you care if your grading matches up with what the whole HH group graded out on average but isn't really meaningful unless you care about being in-sync with the hive mind, including the idiots like @Bread.

Now, there is some "wisdom in crowds" and "balance of optimism" stuff that occurs over a large enough sample so I guess having a high correlation with the net score is "maybe" a good thing. Then again, an expert opinion like that of @CokeGreaterThanPepsi might deviate significantly from the norm since we are all relatively un-expert opinions and therefore he could have a low correlation while being very correct in his assessment. Call it the Ballz factor.

TLDM(ath) This chart is mostly meaningless without the matching JC rankings in 3-5 years for these players. Feel free to give yourself a participation trophy though since I failed to even submit my answers.

Thanks!

Before you got here I was all like:

View attachment 13874

 

[chuck]

I've studied the results carefully and concluded the following:

1). There is a poster here named Fecalfeast.

That is all.

 

[chuck]

Hmm, and I thought I was overly optimistic/generous.

The scores seem a tad skewed, there are going to be a few players that flame out or never contribute but no one really wants to give a 1 or 2.

Seems like most people graded most of the recruits on a 3-5 scale?

Giving the class an average predictive grade of 3.7+ doesn't seem realistic.

Most players are going to end up like a Jaylen Johnson or Tevis "3"... More will flame out as 1s or 2s than achieve All-American MMFG 5s.

@Woof How does the percentage distribution of 1-5 grades compare to the Jesse Callier grades given out historically? Also how have the average Jesse Callier grades changed over time?

Thanks, leave it on my desk, Ill be back after lunch.

How do you predict which ones are going to underperform? Did you arbitrarily pick some guys as flameouts/disappointments so your average would stay at what you deemed to be a realistic level?

Nothing wrong with rating guys lower than the services and most everyone else if it's based in your own evals.

 

[FecalFeast]

I've studied the results carefully and concluded the following:

1). There is a poster here named Fecalfeast.

That is all.

Free pub

 

[chuck]

I've studied the results carefully and concluded the following:

1). There is a poster here named Fecalfeast.

That is all.

Free pub

Not free. There's a price which we can negotiate.

Don't offer me anything to eat though.