We've got about two kids on the roster. How can we be trying to do rankings?
Washington Huskies head coach Danny Sprinkle is 11-29 in Big Ten play through two seasons. (Kevin Clark / The Seattle Times)
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By
Jon Wilner
Bay Area News Group
Fresh off its first NCAA tournament championship since 2000, the Big Ten is well-positioned for another run next spring. Michigan and Illinois are absolutely loaded, Michigan State is one decision away from contender status and Nebraska should prove last season’s breakthrough was no fluke.
Beyond that, the Big Ten hierarchy is muddled, with 14 rosters in various states of flux and coaching staffs under differing degrees of pressure.
(Those dynamics are in place for all four of the conference’s West Coast schools, by the way.)
The transfer portal chaos is starting to settle: 73 of the top 100 players listed in the 247Sports database have selected new homes.
But the stay-or-go deadline for the NBA draft that will shape the state of play in the Big Ten remains more than one month away, on May 27.
The following projections will be updated at that point.
Here we go.
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Jon Wilner: jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com. Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP top-25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree.
Washington Huskies head coach Danny Sprinkle is 11-29 in Big Ten play through two seasons. (Kevin Clark / The Seattle Times)
Skip Ad
By
Jon Wilner
Bay Area News Group
Fresh off its first NCAA tournament championship since 2000, the Big Ten is well-positioned for another run next spring. Michigan and Illinois are absolutely loaded, Michigan State is one decision away from contender status and Nebraska should prove last season’s breakthrough was no fluke.
Beyond that, the Big Ten hierarchy is muddled, with 14 rosters in various states of flux and coaching staffs under differing degrees of pressure.
(Those dynamics are in place for all four of the conference’s West Coast schools, by the way.)
The transfer portal chaos is starting to settle: 73 of the top 100 players listed in the 247Sports database have selected new homes.
But the stay-or-go deadline for the NBA draft that will shape the state of play in the Big Ten remains more than one month away, on May 27.
The following projections will be updated at that point.
Here we go.
1. Michigan
The national champions have retained point guard Elliot Cadeau and shooter Trey McKenney and welcomed J.P. Estrella (from Tennessee) and five-star recruit Brandon McCoy. With that quartet alone — and coach Dusty May, of course — the Wolverines warrant inclusion in the top group of title contenders. If either center Aday Mara or forward Morez Johnson Jr. returns, Michigan becomes the team to beat.Advertising
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2. Illinois
We could have listed Michigan and Illinois as 1A and 1B in the conference race, so narrow is the distinction after Illini guard Andrej Stojakovic announced his return for next season. (Losing star guard Keaton Wagler is the equivalent of Michigan losing Yaxel Lendeborg.) With Stojakovic secured, coach Brad Underwood returns three starters who averaged double figures last season, plus an array of supporting players who excel on both ends of the court.3. Michigan State
Here’s the bridge team to the Big Ten’s second tier. If point guard Jeremy Fears returns, the Spartans will be a clear front-runner alongside Michigan and Illinois. If he remains in the NBA draft, then Michigan State is probably a step below the top two. Everything else is in place for another stellar season in East Lansing, including a cast of recruits currently ranked No. 3 nationally behind only Duke and Michigan.4. Nebraska
Many of the players who led the Cornhuskers to their greatest season are set to return, with leading scorer Pryce Sandfort atop that list. But our outlook is tempered slightly because of an issue unrelated to the roster details: Nebraska will, for the first time in school history, face expectations — real, justifiable, potentially limiting expectations. There will be no sneaking up on opponents for Fred Hoiberg and Co.5. USC
Eric Musselman took Nevada to the Sweet 16 in his third season in Reno and Arkansas to the Elite Eight in his third season in Fayetteville. What happens to his Trojans in Year 3? There’s reason for optimism. They have added guard KJ Lewis from Georgetown (and Arizona before that) and retained Rodney Rice and Jacob Cofie. (Alijah Arenas could be back, as well.) Also, the recruiting class is superb. Calling our shot: The Musselman hire finally pays off in 2026-27 with a solid run in March.6. Indiana
The top collection of transfers in the Big Ten features double-digit scorers from Notre Dame (Markus Burton), Georgia Tech (Jaeden Mustaf), Villanova (Bryce Lindsay), Alabama (Aiden Sherrell) and SMU (Samet Yigitoglu) — all at complementary positions. Clearly, the Hoosiers plan to upgrade their basketball product and found the necessary funds to support second-year coach Darian DeVries. It’s a fascinating tactical shift for a football school.7. Iowa
There’s a case for Ben McCollum as the best NCAA tournament coach in college basketball who isn’t named Dan Hurley, but these rankings are based on projections for the regular season. Without court maestro Bennett Stirtz, whose eligibility has expired, the Hawkeyes could encounter a few potholes from November through February.Advertising
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8. Purdue
The starting rotation was whacked by attrition, with point guard Braden Smith’s departure cutting deeper than any other. But as with Tom Izzo, we assume Boilermakers coach Matt Painter will put a quality product on the floor year after year. Until we have full clarity on the transfer class, however, this is as high as Purdue can reasonably be slotted.9. UCLA
The arrival of Auburn’s Filip Jovic provides needed frontcourt production, while Texas Tech’s Jaylen Petty will boost the perimeter unit. But in order for the Bruins to climb the Big Ten ladder, they must improve on a 1-6 record in conference road games played in the Eastern and Central Time Zones. That’s something to consider as Mick Cronin enters a crucial season.10. Wisconsin
This forecast is limited to the regular season, hence the non-dreary view of Greg Gard and the Badgers. (They have averaged 24 wins over the past five years but repeatedly failed to escape the opening weekend of the NCAAs.) Losing star guard John Blackwell to the portal was a blow, for sure, but the impact should be partially offset by Eian Elmer’s arrival from Miami (Ohio).Sign up for Fan Fix
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11. Maryland
Buzz Williams’ first season in College Park was a bust (4-16 in conference play), but Year 2 is off to a promising start with the arrival of DJ Wagner from Arkansas and Bishop Boswell from Tennessee. If Wagner adds a dose of that Arkansas offense and Boswell provides the Tennessee defensive grit, the Terps could make a significant jump.12. Ohio State
The Buckeyes won four in a row before losing close games to Michigan in the Big Ten tournament and TCU in the NCAAs, so there’s a modicum of momentum for what could be a make-or-break year for coach Jake Diebler. His prospects improved markedly with the arrival of Justin Pippin, the son of Scottie, who did a lot of everything during his year at Cal after transferring in from Michigan.13. Minnesota
If Niko Medved’s second season with the Gophers mirrors his second season at Colorado State — the Rams improved their win total by eight games — then he just might sneak into the NCAAs. Minnesota was 15-18 last season but has restocked with transfers who were used sparingly at power conference schools but have impressive upside.Advertising
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14. Oregon
What’s left of the 2025-26 roster following departures by Jackson Shelstad and Kwame Evans would struggle to win an intramural league title. But help is headed to Eugene in the form of a four-player transfer class that ranks near the top in the Big Ten and 25th nationally. In our view, it represents a final attempt by coach Dana Altman to stabilize the spiraling program. Another bad season likely will be his last.15. Rutgers
Welcome to the Big Ten’s bottom tier, where rosters remain under construction but ceilings are low and outcomes interchangeable. The Scarlet Knights could finish 15th or dead last in coach Steve Pikiell’s 11th season. And the same range of landing spots applies to all the teams listed below.16. Northwestern
The back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances in 2023-24 feel like a decade ago, so swift has been the downturn in Evanston. Chris Collins hasn’t forgotten how to coach, but his roster isn’t what it was — and we’re hard-pressed to see a substantive change in that area.17. Washington
Our joke about Oregon’s trouble on the intramural circuit goes double for the Huskies, who possess a skeletal roster and haven’t upgraded as well as the Ducks. (We’re assuming Hannes Steinbach enters the NBA draft.) The pressure on third-year coach Danny Sprinkle is palpable — he’s 11-29 in conference play — although our hunch is UW would only make a change if there’s a complete and utter implosion. The next few weeks will be critical.18. Penn State
The trajectory is all wrong for coach Mike Rhoades, whose victory total in conference play has gone from nine to six to three in consecutive seasons. The path out of the cellar for the Nittany Lions — and to continued employment for Rhoades — hinges, to a large extent, on the impact of Miami (Ohio) transfer Brant Byers.Jon Wilner: jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com. Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP top-25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree.