As the Dustin Ackley era continues to sputter in Seattle, a change of scenery may be in order

[HFNY]

I'm not saying I disagree but who did any writer or analyst actually say he was "clearly a terrible choice" at the time he was selected?

At least Hultzen's non-appearance in the Bigs is due to injury (which no one saw coming).

OTOH, Ackley has nearly 2,000 ABs at the MLB level and, barring a miracle, has proven himself to be a utility guy at best.

If you go by WAR as your source, Zunino is a replacement level player at this point.

I see a lot of good things to him ... but his bad elements are SO BAD that it takes away a lot of the good things that he does.

His strikeout issue was a massive red flag at every level coming up. At least by Double A they should have told him you get promoted to the next level when you keep your strikeouts below 20%. Since they didn't, he never learned to protect the plate offensively. He's a defensive wizard but he's so far below what he could have been offensively it's sad.

But why is Jackie Z a bad GM?

At least he actually made it to the majors, Hultzen isn't even close and he was supposed to be the "safest" pick of that entire draft.

OTOH, Ackley was universally regarded as the second best pick in that draft (after Strasburg). He's worthless, no doubt, but he wasn't a bad pick necessarily, just bad luck that he busted so hard. Hultzen was clearly a terrible choice at the time he was selected.

Yeah, I know.

 

[RoadDawg55]

There is not much hope with Zunino. A guy like him needs to get walks. He only had 17 last year in 438 AB's. He has 6 so far this year.

If he could hit .220 with 50+ BB's and 20-30 HR's, he would be a good offensive catcher. I think he could hit .220 with 20-30 HR's, but he needs to get on base more.

 

[Tequilla]

I have no problems with the Medina trade ... only problem I have with it is that they should have worked hard on offloading Medina in the Smith trade with San Diego instead of Maurer.

 

[dnc]

I'm not saying I disagree but who did any writer or analyst actually say he was "clearly a terrible choice" at the time he was selected?

At least Hultzen's non-appearance in the Bigs is due to injury (which no one saw coming).

OTOH, Ackley has nearly 2,000 ABs at the MLB level and, barring a miracle, has proven himself to be a utility guy at best.

If you go by WAR as your source, Zunino is a replacement level player at this point.

I see a lot of good things to him ... but his bad elements are SO BAD that it takes away a lot of the good things that he does.

His strikeout issue was a massive red flag at every level coming up. At least by Double A they should have told him you get promoted to the next level when you keep your strikeouts below 20%. Since they didn't, he never learned to protect the plate offensively. He's a defensive wizard but he's so far below what he could have been offensively it's sad.

But why is Jackie Z a bad GM?

At least he actually made it to the majors, Hultzen isn't even close and he was supposed to be the "safest" pick of that entire draft.

OTOH, Ackley was universally regarded as the second best pick in that draft (after Strasburg). He's worthless, no doubt, but he wasn't a bad pick necessarily, just bad luck that he busted so hard. Hultzen was clearly a terrible choice at the time he was selected.

Yeah, I know.

That asshole dawgncarolina at the Mariners scout board was all over it.

More specifically most pre-draft rankings had Hultzen anywhere from 5-7 (with the highest being 4) and Rendon at. The M's left at minimum three higher ranked draftees on the bored to draft Hultzen, including the guy who was universally considered the best talent in the draft (Rendon), despite having a much bigger need for hitters than pitchers. They passed on Rendon since he was banged up, and in turn drafted a pitcher, who is by nature much higher risk.

 

[SteveInShelton]

I'm not saying I disagree but who did any writer or analyst actually say he was "clearly a terrible choice" at the time he was selected?

At least Hultzen's non-appearance in the Bigs is due to injury (which no one saw coming).

OTOH, Ackley has nearly 2,000 ABs at the MLB level and, barring a miracle, has proven himself to be a utility guy at best.

If you go by WAR as your source, Zunino is a replacement level player at this point.

I see a lot of good things to him ... but his bad elements are SO BAD that it takes away a lot of the good things that he does.

His strikeout issue was a massive red flag at every level coming up. At least by Double A they should have told him you get promoted to the next level when you keep your strikeouts below 20%. Since they didn't, he never learned to protect the plate offensively. He's a defensive wizard but he's so far below what he could have been offensively it's sad.

But why is Jackie Z a bad GM?

At least he actually made it to the majors, Hultzen isn't even close and he was supposed to be the "safest" pick of that entire draft.

OTOH, Ackley was universally regarded as the second best pick in that draft (after Strasburg). He's worthless, no doubt, but he wasn't a bad pick necessarily, just bad luck that he busted so hard. Hultzen was clearly a terrible choice at the time he was selected.

Yeah, I know.

If I recall, the issue with Hultzen was that he was an extremely high floor/low ceiling player. He was at most projected as a solid #3 pitcher. When you draft that high it's hard to justify taking a player with a low ceiling like that, especially in baseball where the development time takes so long which presents more opportunities for failure (there really isn't a "safe" pick). The worst case scenario happened and he fucked up his rotator cuff.

 

[Tequilla]

Well ... DNC is an asshole so it's very understandable that people questioned him.

Rendon was a beast in college ... my brother played against him. But I wouldn't go as far as saying that it was a slam dunk that he was a can't miss guy.

First, he's 5'11" and at the time coming out of college was a 3rd baseman. I know that there are organizations out there that have a massive correlation between height and success. The Mariners are one of those organizations.

Second, in his senior season of 2011, he hit only 6 HRs as a junior compared to 20 and 26 HRs as a frosh and soph respectively. This is the year that they changed the bat composition away from the slow pitch softball bats (the ones that allowed my brother to hit a ball at Bannerwood that EASILY cleared the trees behind the fence for a homer that had to have gone at least 460+ feet) to bats that were more consistent with wood bats. While Rice has always had a strong program, the decline in power plus the fact that they don't necessarily play in the strongest of conferences very easily could have put some doubt into the minds of scouts and executives.

Third, and one that who knows what the answer to this is/was, but there's always a question about signability. As a draft eligible junior, Rendon didn't have to take the money if the Mariners drafted him. He may have wanted more than the Mariners wanted to offer. He may not have wanted to play in Seattle. So it's not a given that drafting him would have worked out as it was.

 

[SteveInShelton]

Well ... DNC is an asshole so it's very understandable that people questioned him.

Rendon was a beast in college ... my brother played against him. But I wouldn't go as far as saying that it was a slam dunk that he was a can't miss guy.

First, he's 5'11" and at the time coming out of college was a 3rd baseman. I know that there are organizations out there that have a massive correlation between height and success. The Mariners are one of those organizations.

Second, in his senior season of 2011, he hit only 6 HRs as a junior compared to 20 and 26 HRs as a frosh and soph respectively. This is the year that they changed the bat composition away from the slow pitch softball bats (the ones that allowed my brother to hit a ball at Bannerwood that EASILY cleared the trees behind the fence for a homer that had to have gone at least 460+ feet) to bats that were more consistent with wood bats. While Rice has always had a strong program, the decline in power plus the fact that they don't necessarily play in the strongest of conferences very easily could have put some doubt into the minds of scouts and executives.

Third, and one that who knows what the answer to this is/was, but there's always a question about signability. As a draft eligible junior, Rendon didn't have to take the money if the Mariners drafted him. He may have wanted more than the Mariners wanted to offer. He may not have wanted to play in Seattle. So it's not a given that drafting him would have worked out as it was.

That's a great point, signability is a pretty big deal when it comes to draft picks. I forget which team does this, but they are known for drafting lesser players because they can low ball their offer and still have them signed easily. Not surprisingly, the team I'm thinking of is also terrible.

 

[Tequilla]

It's an even bigger issue today with the cap on picks in the first 10 rounds. If you can get your first pick to sign for less than the spot allows for, then in theory you can pick some better players later in the draft and offer above slot signing bonuses to get them into your organization instead of either heading to (or foregoing the last year of) college.

 

[dnc]

Well ... DNC is an asshole so it's very understandable that people questioned him.

Rendon was a beast in college ... my brother played against him. But I wouldn't go as far as saying that it was a slam dunk that he was a can't miss guy.

First, he's 5'11" and at the time coming out of college was a 3rd baseman. I know that there are organizations out there that have a massive correlation between height and success. The Mariners are one of those organizations.

Second, in his senior season of 2011, he hit only 6 HRs as a junior compared to 20 and 26 HRs as a frosh and soph respectively. This is the year that they changed the bat composition away from the slow pitch softball bats (the ones that allowed my brother to hit a ball at Bannerwood that EASILY cleared the trees behind the fence for a homer that had to have gone at least 460+ feet) to bats that were more consistent with wood bats. While Rice has always had a strong program, the decline in power plus the fact that they don't necessarily play in the strongest of conferences very easily could have put some doubt into the minds of scouts and executives.

Third, and one that who knows what the answer to this is/was, but there's always a question about signability. As a draft eligible junior, Rendon didn't have to take the money if the Mariners drafted him. He may have wanted more than the Mariners wanted to offer. He may not have wanted to play in Seattle. So it's not a given that drafting him would have worked out as it was.

The M's paid Hultzen $10.6 million. Rendon got $7.2 million. Signability was not the fucking issue. Rendon was ours if we wanted him. The only high draftee that was said to not want to play for Seattle was Dylan Bundy.

 

[Tequilla]

The point I was trying to make DNC is that nobody knows publicly what went on. Perhaps Rendon wanted $7-$8M to sign yet the Mariners didn't want to pay him (i.e. didn't think he was worth more than $5M).

It's easy to go backwards and say that this pick was a bust and that pick wasn't.

But if you look at what Hultzen did in college in one of the better baseball conferences over a 3 year period, it was damn well impressive. His ERA was never above 2.78 (and that was at the height of the video game bat era). He averaged between 10 and 12.5 K's per 9 innings while in college. His K to BB ratio was 6:1. In 2 of 3 years his WHIP was well under 1.

Even as a pro, there's nothing wrong with Hultzen's performance. He went straight from college to AA and posted a 1.19 ERA. Only when he went up to AAA did he run into some issues mainly due to control as he was still striking plenty of people out. The walks probably were a leading indicator to his arm troubles. Even the following year prior to his injury, Hultzen had righted the ship, had an ERA in the low 2's, was K'ing a guy per inning, and had a WHIP under 1.

So while I agree with you that pitchers carry a greater risk in general due to injury concerns than high end bats have a risk of not developing, it's far from a given that a high end college bat will develop (see Dustin Ackley). The better conclusion from this would be that when the Mariners have high end talent they either tend to get injured to keep them from getting to their potential or they fail to properly develop them by pushing them too early to the bigs (a symptom that they have in abundance with when it comes to hitters).

 

[HFNY]

Totally agree with you about Zunino needing to draw more walks. He's only on pace for about 24 this year and ideally he gets more than 30.

There is not much hope with Zunino. A guy like him needs to get walks. He only had 17 last year in 438 AB's. He has 6 so far this year.

If he could hit .220 with 50+ BB's and 20-30 HR's, he would be a good offensive catcher. I think he could hit .220 with 20-30 HR's, but he needs to get on base more.

 

[Swaye]

If you go by WAR as your source, Zunino is a replacement level player at this point.

I see a lot of good things to him ... but his bad elements are SO BAD that it takes away a lot of the good things that he does.

His strikeout issue was a massive red flag at every level coming up. At least by Double A they should have told him you get promoted to the next level when you keep your strikeouts below 20%. Since they didn't, he never learned to protect the plate offensively. He's a defensive wizard but he's so far below what he could have been offensively it's sad.

But why is Jackie Z a bad GM?

At least he actually made it to the majors, Hultzen isn't even close and he was supposed to be the "safest" pick of that entire draft.

Don't even get me started. I BRB JO'd over Rendon more times than Swaye at a nudist biker chick convention. I couldn't believe he fell to us, and couldn't believe we passed on him. For Hultzen of all fucking people.

The M's drafted in the top 3 in the two most star studded top 10s in the past dozen years and got Jeff Clement and Danny Hultzen. Add in passing on Lincecum for Brandon Morrow and you don't even need to make it to the Bedard trade to explain why the Mariners have sucked for so long.

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