Another Pre-Season Analytic Projection

[DoogCourics]

Rob Bowron enjoyed Bill Connelly's S&P+ but felt there were a few things he could improve on. He created Beta_Rank. I found it interesting so I decided I'd throw it on here for anyone interested. Think of it as the free version of the Pick Six Predictions I threw down in the WAM.

If you're interested in knowing more about it and reading how he comes up with his projections:
https://www.sharpcollegefootball.com/post/what-is-beta_rank

First, explanation of terms:







Next, our shitty offensive history:



And, our dominant defensive history:



Now, our team dashboard and schedule analysis:






Lastly, the 2019 conference comparison:

 

[DoogCourics]

Listened to a podcast he was on and he loves Petersen and thinks UW has the best coaching staff in the country. His numbers however are heavily influenced by the lack of returning production, specifically on defense. UW is 130th out of 130 teams in regards to returning production.

But he did say if one team in the conference could overcome that, it's UW.

 

[GrundleStiltzkin]

Might as well not even play the games then

 

[DoogCourics]

Might as well not even play the games then

Then what would I watch all fall?

 

[FremontTroll]

He hates us.

Luckily his model is total garbage.

At least preseason. Maybe it will improve although I doubt it since the returning production portion seems to be the most solid part.

 

[Arc]

Might as well not even play the games then

Might as well not even talk about the team on internet forums then.

 

[DoogCourics]

He hates us.

Luckily his model is total garbage.

At least preseason. Maybe it will improve although I doubt it since the returning production portion seems to be the most solid part.

Reading through his website, in season he hits 80% predictions on who will win games, but preseason projections are just below 60% hit rates. So it definitely is more accurate in season as the data begins to compile.

He admits himself that the data skews towards returning production in his preseason models.

Not sure exactly who he is but he does pods with the Arizona 247 mod, and he claims he is an econometrician.

 

[FremontTroll]

He hates us.

Luckily his model is total garbage.

At least preseason. Maybe it will improve although I doubt it since the returning production portion seems to be the most solid part.

Reading through his website, in season he hits 80% predictions on who will win games.

Not sure exactly who he is but he does pods with the Arizona 247 mod, and he claims he is an econometrician.

If you just pick the favorite in every game you will be about 80%. The question is how he does against the spread. If he doesn’t publicize that it’s probably not good.

Put it this way I noticed he loves Utah so I looked at one game- Utah vs. BYU.

He has it at Utah -13.5. Spread is actually -4.5.

If his model were correct the Kelly Criterion says that line is so far out of whack he should bet 40% of his bankroll on it.

 

[DoogCourics]

He hates us.

Luckily his model is total garbage.

At least preseason. Maybe it will improve although I doubt it since the returning production portion seems to be the most solid part.

Reading through his website, in season he hits 80% predictions on who will win games.

Not sure exactly who he is but he does pods with the Arizona 247 mod, and he claims he is an econometrician.

If you just pick the favorite in every game you will be about 80%. The question is how he does against the spread. If he doesn’t publicize that it’s probably not good.

Put it this way I noticed he loves Utah so I looked at one game- Utah vs. BYU.

He has it at Utah -13.5. Spread is actually -4.5.

If his model were correct the Kelly Criterion says that line is so far out of whack he should bet 40% of his bankroll on it.

View attachment 13874

Got me dude. I never claimed to be a @UW_Doog_Bot out here. I just find shit online I find interesting and share it here so others can see it.

I’ll take Pete’s advice and go back to the drawing board for some introspection.

View attachment 8255

 

[FremontTroll]

Not attacking you always appreciate you and your service.

Looking at bad models is still interesting. Will follow it to see if it is better in-season.

 

[dtd]

Returning starts has been proven to be one of the least correlated of the correlated stats(to winning).

 

[JaWarrenJaHooker]

Peterman should be fired if he goes 6-3 in the PAC this year

 

[CFetters_Nacho_Lover]

I’m gonna wait to see what @TheChart has to say before I comment on this.

 

[Mad_Son]

He hates us.

Luckily his model is total garbage.

At least preseason. Maybe it will improve although I doubt it since the returning production portion seems to be the most solid part.

Reading through his website, in season he hits 80% predictions on who will win games.

Not sure exactly who he is but he does pods with the Arizona 247 mod, and he claims he is an econometrician.

If you just pick the favorite in every game you will be about 80%. The question is how he does against the spread. If he doesn’t publicize that it’s probably not good.

Put it this way I noticed he loves Utah so I looked at one game- Utah vs. BYU.

He has it at Utah -13.5. Spread is actually -4.5.

If his model were correct the Kelly Criterion says that line is so far out of whack he should bet 40% of his bankroll on it.

80% straight up is really good if it is achieved early in the season (which they of course can't). Otherwise yeah, it's about par for the course.
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?orderby=wpct desc&type=1&year=18
https://hardcorehusky.com/discussio...ts-that-will-change-how-you-view-the-world/p1

 

[DoogCourics]

Returning starts has been proven to be one of the least correlated of the correlated stats(to winning).

This.

Because I believe 40% of last year’s snaps actually return on defense since we rotate so much. That’s definitely not dead last in the country.

Plus half the defense has started multiple games, they just were full time starters.

 

[theknowledge]

When do we have enough blue chip players or a strong enough team philosophy to qualify for the alpha rank? DDY wants to know.

 

[89ute]

Lotta FREE PUB!!!!11! in this analysis.

 

[FremontTroll]

Returning starts has been proven to be one of the least correlated of the correlated stats(to winning).

He didn’t use returning starts though.

 

[dnc]

A whole thread about Beta Rank and not one person has tagged @NorwegianHusky?

This place is slipping.

 

[RaceBannon]

A whole thread about Beta Rank and not one person has tagged @NorwegianHusky?

This place is slipping.

I'm trying to calm things down here

@NorwegianHusky

@RuffaloSoldier