UW Doog Bot's Season Wins Probability Distribution Calculator UCLA win Fupdate

[UW_Doog_Bot]

The probability of going undefeated in PAC 12 play jumped significantly this week from 27% to 36% while having 1 loss only gained 1%. It is however, still the most likely scenario at 40%. The combined probability of going 8-1 or better is now more than 75% and with a Stanford loss puts UW with a similar probability of winning the PAC 12 North. Most likely, this weeks game against Oregon will be the highest probability of a loss left on the schedule. If UW wins this game the probability of going undefeated in conference will for the first time be greater than the probability of incurring 1 loss.



Don't have the time yet to update PPG. Will try to get to it later this week if I get a chance.

Until then, here are some maff gifs

 

[FireCohen]

Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season

 

[UW_Doog_Bot]

Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season

Hmmmm, good question, brb, yo.

 

[RaceBannon]

UCLA was my top loss possibility

9-0 here we come

 

[UW_Doog_Bot]

Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season

Not that likely according to the model. Keep in mind that it won't account for things like teams quitting on games or being desperate for 1 win etc. though. It's purely a game to game % predictor.

 

[UW_Doog_Bot]

That got me thinking and I went ahead and plugged in both Stanford and Oregon's FPI probabilities. TLDR we've already won the North unless we? really manage to screw the pooch here.

 

[Mad_Son]

Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season

View attachment 15209

Not that likely according to the model. Keep in mind that it won't account for things like teams quitting on games or being desperate for 1 win etc. though. It's purely a game to game % predictor.

Wrong kind of perfect season.

 

[Mad_Son]

That got me thinking and I went ahead and plugged in both Stanford and Oregon's FPI probabilities. TLDR we've already won the North unless we? really manage to screw the pooch here.

View attachment 15210

View attachment 15211

What does it look like with just conference games?

 

[FireCohen]

Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season

View attachment 15209

Not that likely according to the model. Keep in mind that it won't account for things like teams quitting on games or being desperate for 1 win etc. though. It's purely a game to game % predictor.

Wrong kind of perfect season.

Yeah, but still perfect right @TierbsHsotBoobs ?

 

[UW_Doog_Bot]

That got me thinking and I went ahead and plugged in both Stanford and Oregon's FPI probabilities. TLDR we've already won the North unless we? really manage to screw the pooch here.

View attachment 15210

View attachment 15211

What does it look like with just conference games?

All OOC games have been played and accounted for so are you asking me to do the basic arithmetic for you?

Stanford 6-3 and Oregon 5-4 most likely scenarios. Both 8-4 overall.

 

[oregonblitzkrieg]

Oregon going 8-4, not going to happen doog.

 

[UW_Doog_Bot]

Oregon going 8-4, not going to happen doog.

TUFF talk for someone unwilling to make a bet.

 

[DoogCourics]

The probability of going undefeated in PAC 12 play jumped significantly this week from 27% to 36% while having 1 loss only gained 1%. It is however, still the most likely scenario at 40%. The combined probability of going 8-1 or better is now more than 75% and with a Stanford loss puts UW with a similar probability of winning the PAC 12 North. Most likely, this weeks game against Oregon will be the highest probability of a loss left on the schedule. If UW wins this game the probability of going undefeated in conference will for the first time be greater than the probability of incurring 1 loss.

View attachment 800

Don't have the time yet to update PPG. Will try to get to it later this week if I get a chance.

Until then, here are some maff gifs

View attachment 13874

Appreciate you.

 

[NEsnake12]

The probability of going undefeated in PAC 12 play jumped significantly this week from 27% to 36% while having 1 loss only gained 1%. It is however, still the most likely scenario at 40%. The combined probability of going 8-1 or better is now more than 75% and with a Stanford loss puts UW with a similar probability of winning the PAC 12 North. Most likely, this weeks game against Oregon will be the highest probability of a loss left on the schedule. If UW wins this game the probability of going undefeated in conference will for the first time be greater than the probability of incurring 1 loss.

View attachment 800

Don't have the time yet to update PPG. Will try to get to it later this week if I get a chance.

Until then, here are some maff gifs

View attachment 13874

Appreciate you.

 

[Mad_Son]

That got me thinking and I went ahead and plugged in both Stanford and Oregon's FPI probabilities. TLDR we've already won the North unless we? really manage to screw the pooch here.

View attachment 15210

View attachment 15211

What does it look like with just conference games?

All OOC games have been played and accounted for so are you asking me to do the basic arithmetic for you?

Stanford 6-3 and Oregon 5-4 most likely scenarios. Both 8-4 overall.

Not everyone knows their ooc a priori. You didn't present the relevant information initially, you presented the relevant information with extra irrelevant information. The both 8-4 overall as shown by the graphs highlights my point.