Penn St -13.5

[greenblood]

Thanks to UW for covering my teaser last week, but I’m going with Penn St. here big. UW has trouble stopping the run, and that’s what Penn St. does best. Also, if you simply back the home team ATS in these cross country B1G games, they cover at like a 70-75% clip this year.

 

[greenblood]

you also can get this under a key number of 14.

 

[dirtysouwfdawg]

if your betting thread doesn’t have half naked women I’m not interested.

On the field and in the showers. Pedo st by 21.

 

[HFNY]

you also can get this under a key number of 14.

It looks like the predicted score is 30-16. The OL did look a little better against USC and I think we'll see Tafai and McCree rotate at LT so if they can largely contain #11, they have a chance to score 20 or more.
I am also bullish on the staff keeping Hatchett in full-time at LG and rotating Memmelaar and Vimahi at RG (both are dinged now).
As expected, Penn State has some dudes in their front 7 and this is a game to give Coleman 20 carries to open things up for Boston, Jackson and Latu. If Penn State's D has a weakness, it is its secondary.
On defense, it looks like they were playing more of a 3-3-5 to get House on the field against USC though we may see more 4-2-5 with DeShawn Lynch to size up the DL.
Bruener and Broussard (with maybe some Kam Fab) will need to be at their best against Tyler Warren and I could see UW bracketing him some as Prysocks, Dixon, and Shaw should be able to do ok vs. their WRs in man coverage.

 

[WoolleyDoog]

That seems super low. They really think Penn State won't win by as much or more than Iowa and Indiana with their backup QB with UW traveling even further this time and off an emotional win? I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Fisch packs it in if they get down by 14 and tries to get ready for a greased UCLA.

 

[Canadawg]

That seems super low. They really think Penn State won't win by as much or more than Iowa and Indiana with their backup QB with UW traveling even further this time and off an emotional win? I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Fisch packs it in if they get down by 14 and tries to get ready for a greased UCLA.

I wouldn't call that an emotional win

 

[greenblood]

That seems super low. They really think Penn State won't win by as much or more than Iowa and Indiana with their backup QB with UW traveling even further this time and off an emotional win? I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Fisch packs it in if they get down by 14 and tries to get ready for a greased UCLA.

I wouldn't call that an emotional win

two stops inside the 10 in the final few minutes? I’d call that an emotional win.

 

[HFNY]

That seems super low. They really think Penn State won't win by as much or more than Iowa and Indiana with their backup QB with UW traveling even further this time and off an emotional win? I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Fisch packs it in if they get down by 14 and tries to get ready for a greased UCLA.

Well it could also be looked at that Penn State is coming off of an (even more) emotional loss and their offense isn't amazing. Penn State is a well rounded team but the only team non cream puff team they beat by more than 16 points was West Virginia back in the first game of the season.
With that said, if UW gets down by more than 14, they would limit Coleman's carries first and foremost.

 

[TheHB]

I want the edibles the people are eating who think UW has a shot in hell.

 

[HFNY]

you also can get this under a key number of 14.

It looks like the predicted score is 30-16. The OL did look a little better against USC and I think we'll see Tafai and McCree rotate at LT so if they can largely contain #11, they have a chance to score 20 or more.
I am also bullish on the staff keeping Hatchett in full-time at LG and rotating Memmelaar and Vimahi at RG (both are dinged now).
As expected, Penn State has some dudes in their front 7 and this is a game to give Coleman 20 carries to open things up for Boston, Jackson and Latu. If Penn State's D has a weakness, it is its secondary.
On defense, it looks like they were playing more of a 3-3-5 to get House on the field against USC though we may see more 4-2-5 with DeShawn Lynch to size up the DL.
Bruener and Broussard (with maybe some Kam Fab) will need to be at their best against Tyler Warren and I could see UW bracketing him some as Prysocks, Dixon, and Shaw should be able to do ok vs. their WRs in man coverage.

Per Fisch, it sounds like McCree will again be the emergency / 3rd string tackle. Maybe he'll finally be ready to get some snaps against UCLA.
But Tafai has come along nicely in trial by fire but will need help (with a back or TE) in containing Abdul Carter (#11). The other help could be via play calling as he tends to crash down on RPO plays. Another great play call was when QB Howard took the snap and then took a step forward towards the PSU DE before pitching it to the RB for a nice gain:

UW could also have a tough time dropping 7 and 8 into coverage because Allar has good mobility and will run for first downs. At some point, UW may have to lean more on Dixon, Prysocks, and Shaw so that UW can blitz or spy Allar while still accounting for their TE.

 

[TheHB]

Penn State will have over 200 yards rushing. It is going to be ugly

 

[HFNY]

Penn State will have over 200 yards rushing. It is going to be ugly

Yeah, they had 239 yards against Illinois in a 21-7 win. What's Chinteresting is that they only had 85 yards against UCLA (but Drew Allar averaged 9.9 yards per attempt on 17 of 24 passing) in a 16 point win at home.
I think I'd rather put the burden on Allar and their WRs to make plays rather than get gashed in the run game (or death by a thousand cuts). Definitely a pick your poison type game.

 

[RaceBannon]

At USC

Big dose of Tyler Henry in the 2nd half
At Husky Stadium it's probably close. Happy Valley probably not