Oregon's Season

C

creepycoug

Well-known poster
This will become for Doogs like the Sarkesian watch. You don't want Oregon to overly flame out, because if they do, then the architect of their demise will be fired and Knight, who is still alive last I checked, will be in a position to get it right again.

Note quite a perfect analogy to SC, but the analogy fits this far: Oregon, their fan base and, more importantly, their boosters, care about football. They rightly see it as a portal to more money and status for the entire university and the rest of the AD.

You faggots here who obsess over them had better hope Helfrich goes at least 8 wins this year, or he's door ass out.

You should also hope the defense improves from dreck to dreck + or decent - so that they make the horrendous mistake of keeping Pellum.

Oregon has built a name and has developed recruiting inroads in Texas and Florida, and they are not going to stop spending $$, so rather than the old, and quite stupid, line of thought (Iron Laws) that they will revert to some naturally-defined mean, you'd better instead hope for bad staff decisions of the sort the rest of the Pac 12 has enjoyed at USC for some time sans Caroll, which they tripped their way into quite by accident as everyone knows.

I have been officially swayed to the idea that Helfrich is the rule rather than the exception; the rule being that internal promotions are a 99% loser.

You get your best HCs when hiring guys who were successful at smaller programs. That is about as close as you get to a coaching formula.
 
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You are right for the most part. I will argue with you about the boosters. Oregon has one booster that cares about football performance, fortunately, as long as he's alive, it's the only voice that will be listened to. The majority of Oregon boosters care more about access than anything else. Most of the boosters loved Belotti, hated Chip, and now really like Helrich, because he strokes their ego and makes them feel important. Most Oregon boosters are perfectly fine with 7-5 seasons as long as their hands are shaked and they get a photo or two. They like that more than 12-0 with "Who the fuck are you?" looks.

When Phil Knight passes away, it will be the death of Oregon football. Until then, Oregon will always be a threat, because they will make the changes when needed, to keep Phil's money coming in.

The successful small college coach is spot on. Sonny Dykes is making great changes at Cal (ranked too high), Urban Meyer, also fits this criteria. It doesn't stop at football. Oregon's basketball team has a real coach, and is a borderline sweet 16 contender even with below average recruiting classes. This year, Oregon has it's best class in the Altman era, so I'm stoked to see what they do this year.
 
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Oregon is not going to disappear over night for the reasons mentioned. Even at UW with no Phil Knight and an administration that actively hated and hates football it took 10-12 years for the first 1-10 to show up. There was one last Rose Bowl win 8 years after James and they contended most of the 90's.
 
You are right for the most part. I will argue with you about the boosters. Oregon has one booster that cares about football performance, fortunately, as long as he's alive, it's the only voice that will be listened to. The majority of Oregon boosters care more about access than anything else. Most of the boosters loved Belotti, hated Chip, and now really like Helrich, because he strokes their ego and makes them feel important. Most Oregon boosters are perfectly fine with 7-5 seasons as long as their hands are shaked and they get a photo or two. They like that more than 12-0 with "Who the fuck are you?" looks.

When Phil Knight passes away, it will be the death of Oregon football. Until then, Oregon will always be a threat, because they will make the changes when needed, to keep Phil's money coming in.

The successful small college coach is spot on. Sonny Dykes is making great changes at Cal (ranked too high), Urban Meyer, also fits this criteria. It doesn't stop at football. Oregon's basketball team has a real coach, and is a borderline sweet 16 contender even with below average recruiting classes. This year, Oregon has it's best class in the Altman era, so I'm stoked to see what they do this year.
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Eh, I think that's a little dramatic. Your point about stroking applies to every major program in the country, including Alabama. The difference is, they stroke 'em all. Kelly would have pissed people off ANYWHERE because the guy is an affirmative asshole. He's like a ruder version of Belichick, and that will rub people the wrong way anywhere no matter who you are. Also, people then didn't really understand how much Kelly had to do with Oregon's success. I think they get it now.

Oregon has a football booster presence beyond Knight. The reason you and everyone seems to think otherwise is because Knight is so fucking dominant and visible. I mean, there aren't a lot of people out there like Knight who care about sports, so it's relatively unique thing. Pickens with OSU is the other example I can think of. But just because there's one giant and a bunch of people who are dwarfs by comparison doesn't mean they're not there and won't fill the void when he's gone. Oregon has become accustomed to winning because everyone becomes accustomed to it. It's like crack that way. You're also remembering a bunch of candy asses from before Oregon became a winner. They would have to lose for a long time for that culture to return.

Just look up here. All these years later, and the limp-wristed Seattle homo fan base that existed then still longs for a winning Washington. Nobody cares about friendly coaches when they lose. Sure, given your druthers you'd take a guy with a winning personality like Rick if he's also a winning coach. I liked Rick N. a lot when he was winning and haven't been back to picture day with the kids since he left. But lose enough and you find out how quickly that nobody gives a shit about your handshake and your 2 minute meet and greet pitch.

The successful smaller program coach thing has many examples: James, Tressel, Harbaugh, Spurrier .... It's not a strong statistical fit, because frankly the whole fucking enterprise is so random that there is no fit, but it's the best variable for recurring success that I've observed from dead reckoning.

 
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Oregon is not going to disappear over night for the reasons mentioned. Even at UW with no Phil Knight and an administration that actively hated and hates football it took 10-12 years for the first 1-10 to show up. There was one last Rose Bowl win 8 years after James and they contended most of the 90's.
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that's exactly right. all these years later, as I said, and the milk toast fan base that is Seattle STILL can taste what winning cfb was like. and it has been a LONG FUCKING TIME. If having your arch rival blow up your collective asses each year for over a decade doesn't soften you up, nothing will.
 
Oregon is not going to disappear over night for the reasons mentioned. Even at UW with no Phil Knight and an administration that actively hated and hates football it took 10-12 years for the first 1-10 to show up. There was one last Rose Bowl win 8 years after James and they contended most of the 90's.
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Agree Oregon won't disappear, but they will fall back to ASU/UCLA levels. Consistent top 10 - 20 seasons with upside beyond that occasionally, not a consistent top5 anymore. Their talent isn't incredible, their system isn't unique anymore under an average head coach whose staff is fraying significantly.
 
fuck this thread

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Oregon is not going to disappear over night for the reasons mentioned. Even at UW with no Phil Knight and an administration that actively hated and hates football it took 10-12 years for the first 1-10 to show up. There was one last Rose Bowl win 8 years after James and they contended most of the 90's.
Click to expand...
Agree Oregon won't disappear, but they will fall back to ASU/UCLA levels. Consistent top 10 - 20 seasons with upside beyond that occasionally, not a consistent top5 anymore. Their talent isn't incredible, their system isn't unique anymore under an average head coach whose staff is fraying significantly.
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Too early to say one way or the other. They could turn things around, or at least stabilize in the upper third of the conference, but they don't look like a very good team right now. Depth has been less than stellar the past few years, and bigger programs with better recruiting have struggled to remain relevant for long periods of time. We'll see.
 
Oregon is not going to disappear over night for the reasons mentioned. Even at UW with no Phil Knight and an administration that actively hated and hates football it took 10-12 years for the first 1-10 to show up. There was one last Rose Bowl win 8 years after James and they contended most of the 90's.
Click to expand...
Agree Oregon won't disappear, but they will fall back to ASU/UCLA levels. Consistent top 10 - 20 seasons with upside beyond that occasionally, not a consistent top5 anymore. Their talent isn't incredible, their system isn't unique anymore under an average head coach whose staff is fraying significantly.
Click to expand...

Too early to say one way or the other. They could turn things around, or at least stabilize in the upper third of the conference, but they don't look like a very good team right now. Depth has been less than stellar the past few years, and bigger programs with better recruiting have struggled to remain relevant for long periods of time. We'll see.
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I'm not sure wtf you're talking about. Depth has not been a problem until this year. One could could argue they've been the deepest team in the league for years.

You're FS though, so...
 
Yeah it's great to see Oregon start slipping because IMHO their fans never deserved someone like Chip Kelly. I'm curious to see how fair-weather their fans will be if things get ugly (like losing to Washington in a couple of weeks).
 
Yeah it's great to see Oregon start slipping because IMHO their fans never deserved someone like Chip Kelly. I'm curious to see how fair-weather their fans will be if things get ugly (like losing to Washington in a couple of weeks).
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It will be the same thing Washington went through recently. There's 3 segments of Oregon fans.

1. The true bandwagoners. People with no affiliation to the school other than they live on the same Coast. These fags have already (or soon will) lose interest and throw on their "12" jersey or whatever winner they live nearby. Fuck them, WGAF.

2. The diehards with expecations. This is where your HH Duck posters fall. People who've been with the program for a while and realize that cfball is now a different animal. All the excuses that used to apply to Oregon sucking no longer apply. Phil/Kilkenny/etc. fall under this as well (Thank God).

3. The diehards who are lifelong losers. Cheswick. Ducksatbat. Marty. These dweebs will keep moving the goal posts on expectations (based on what expectations used to be in the fucking 1980s) until it's late November, when they will rally under the cry of "As long as we beat the Beavs, it's a successful season. There were years growing up where I would have LOVED to beat the Beavs and the rest of the games didn't matter". These people suck. This attitude is why they suck at life. No ambition. No expectations. No sense of reality (the reality being that this isn't fucking 1985).

It will be a battle between #2 and #3 (sound familiar to HH crowd v Dawgman under Willingham?). In the past, #2 has won out (see MB being forced out when Chip was looking to leave and become a HC). Honestly, people think Phil runs the shots (and he does to some extent), but it's Kilkenny who is much more hands on and proactive with these types of decisions. He's a good deal younger too than Phil, so that helps. We need Pat and Phil to step up--If they do and Helfrich is replaced after this 4-8 season or next year's 5-7 abortion, the Ducks can be back as a top 10 program by 2018 (assuming that Herman or Fuente is hired). If Phil and Pat are content to see the Ducks slide back into mediocrity, then we are fucked. I used to think Helf was MB-lite. After watching this season unfold, I would fucking kill for Mikey B. Helf's average season without Marcus will be around 5-7, with an occasional 8-4 season sprinkled in. And as far as the fans, Autzen will be 40% filled with Cheswick and Ducksatbat cheering on the Ducks against the Beavs. "Hey, 3-9 would have been a good season when I was 11 years old in FUCKING 1965".
 
Yeah it's great to see Oregon start slipping because IMHO their fans never deserved someone like Chip Kelly. I'm curious to see how fair-weather their fans will be if things get ugly (like losing to Washington in a couple of weeks).
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doog

 
Oregon will be irrelevant in six months outside of the NW if not sooner.

I've already seen the bandwagon fans around here quit wearing their gear. This is Pac 12 cuntry. In Texas and the South, there are easily half a dozen programs more relevant. They aren't going t get four and five stars from there anymore.

They might be able to maintain Bellotti like 5-8 win seasons, but the top ten shit is over for a while. Sit back, relax, and enjoy watching Autism Stadium 60% full again like the good ol days.
 
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