Nike Stock is down 60% over the last 5 years

DawgOfTheAges

DawgOfTheAges

Swaye's Wigwam
Swaye's Wigwam
Founder's Club
Our friends in Oregon care about Nike performance and the progression has turned into a Wall Street Value Trap ~ The stock is now down 17% year-to-date and 69.14% over five years. That five-year number is the one that keeps long-term shareholders up at night, and it frames the central question every investor is asking this morning: is Nike a generational buy at these levels, or has the brand structurally lost its edge?

Guidance Cut Sparks the Selloff​

The market's reaction is almost entirely about what comes next. Nike's management guided for an anticipated revenue decline of 2% to 4% in the upcoming quarter, a signal that the recovery CEO Elliott Hill has been promising is still more promise than reality. That forward warning, layered on top of persistent margin pressure, is what drove the gap down.

Furthermore, Nike's gross margin contracted 130 basis points year-over-year to 40.2%, pressured by tariff-driven cost increases in North America. Operating income declined 19.42% year-over-year to $635 million, and net income fell to $520 million, down 34.51% year-over-year. These numbers reflect a company still deep in its restructuring phase.

The impact on Stakeholders over time is to sharpen focus on directed attention to profit margin decision making that seeks to reduce and or eliminate reliance on inductive relational intellectual branding expressions.

In English, expressing the numbers is one thing ~ the seismic destruction and “drop out of the sky” reckoning of the previous 25 year parabolic uptrend as displayed in the longer term trajectory graphic is a corporate nightmare that shakes the very foundation of the culture of the company.
 

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In the process of change, Phil Knight’s net worth has gone from the peak of 45-50 Billion in 2022 to an estimated 2026 value now of 15Billion [and potentially heading still lower] ~ a lot of capital but a huge departure from the carefree days of largesse that he was previously blessed with.

In context, the still largely unfunded Phil and Penny Knight historic $2 billion promised contribution to the OHSU Knight Cancer Institute, announced in August 2025, topping the year's largest charitable gifts now has a higher level of impact on personal finances.

This massive, multi-year pledge focuses on cancer research and patient care, complementing their prior $1B+ in contributions to the University of Oregon
 
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They're too big to react quickly to the trends brought out by niche athletic brands on social media. Nike could be viewed as a boomer brand, for all I know. Does anybody know what they make outside of Jordan-branded stuff anymore?
 
Their largest revenue volume impact is in fashionable athletic clothing ~ shoes are still a big deal and carry higher profit margins I believe, but the revenue volume which provides operating size and scale and the advertising budget comes from clothing. From a stock value standpoint, the estimated PE multiple for NKE now is 26 times current earnings ~ and for perspective, for a lot of years in the earlier phases of growth, Nike stock routinely sold at 10-14 times earnings ~ all of which suggests the stock could still go in half from here and be considered fairly valued.
 
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I love Ons, hopefully youngsters in their 20's start to as well and become customers for life. I was gifted Ons in 2021 and have been loyal ever since (have bought 3 more pairs) and will probably buy another pair in a few months.
 
And if you have some cash that you won't need for at least a year (ideally 3 to 5), On's stock is worth a look now. Keep some powder dry in case it tests its $30.50 low from two years ago.
 
BleachedAnusDawg said:
They're too big to react quickly to the trends brought out by niche athletic brands on social media. Nike could be viewed as a boomer brand, for all I know. Does anybody know what they make outside of Jordan-branded stuff anymore?
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Sucks for me who rails against buying anything Nike that they own Converse. I noticed going to Woolley high school basketball games this year that the kids seem to have a wider range of shoe brands they wear and seemed to be less into the Jordan/Nike vibe.
 
Shoes are much less of a fashion statement then they were from the late 80's to 2020. I've seen a few videos from "Sneaker Heads" who have indicated interest in their inventory has dropped substantially. My dad used to call me Imelda Marcos for all the shoes I owned. I'd point out owning more shoes generally means your shoes last longer. That said Vans, Adidas, and New Balance have captured much of the younger, casual she wearer, at a lower price point. Young kids don't feel compelled to wear basketball shoes around like we did in the 90's. Kids are content with "general" sneaker.

I'll say this as well, Nike fucked up some shoes as well. Nike Free were worn all over the place. Went to NYC in 17 and literally the entire city were wearing them. Affordable, comfortable. I still have a few pairs laying around. Simple designs, not flashy. The fly knit versions one could basically wear sockless. Then lets get into the Nike Dunks. They were on almost every court I was on. Again simple designs, and reasonably priced. They jacked up the price and I had a pair, I think the 2018's that literally hurt my feet. They had hard plastic under the ankle bones. Now, almost all the hoops shoes available are branded by certain players who come up with shitty designs.

Okay, I'll get off my soap box.
 
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