Final Polls Starting To Roll Out

I follow the RCP avg and the following individuals:
Baris
Atlas
Rasmussen
Emerson
Trump is extremely difficult to poll correctly as seen by finals vs exits in 16/20
Pollsters always seem to end up Dem +2-3-4 in the sample because they can’t get Rs to respond.
The stay at home soccer moms and Karens have no problem spending 20min on the phone with a pollster.

The guy working a MFG job on the line? Not so much. And they don’t VBM. They show up on ED which is why we typically see a big red push at the end(aka the silent majority)
I think that most of the J6 stink is off Trump and indies are ready to vote for him again because of how bad Biden/Harris has been for 3.5 years.

Enthusiasm seems down for Harris. She needs pop stars to get people to her rallies and I don’t think the voter that waits until the last minute to decide has been given any reason to vote for her. They’ll stay home and Trump’s silent ED bloc will tailwind through in the sun belt and rust belt.
 
thechatch said:
I follow the RCP avg and the following individuals:
Baris
Atlas
Rasmussen
Emerson
Trump is extremely difficult to poll correctly as seen by finals vs exits in 16/20
Pollsters always seem to end up Dem +2-3-4 in the sample because they can’t get Rs to respond.
The stay at home soccer moms and Karens have no problem spending 20min on the phone with a pollster.

The guy working a MFG job on the line? Not so much. And they don’t VBM. They show up on ED which is why we typically see a big red push at the end(aka the silent majority)
I think that most of the J6 stink is off Trump and indies are ready to vote for him again because of how bad Biden/Harris has been for 3.5 years.

Enthusiasm seems down for Harris. She needs pop stars to get people to her rallies and I don’t think the voter that waits until the last minute to decide has been given any reason to vote for her. They’ll stay home and Trump’s silent ED bloc will tailwind through in the sun belt and rust belt.
Click to expand...
I 100% believe much as I said earlier in the year the entire Harris campaign is essentially a play to avoid complete demoralization and a Reagan-esque trouncing of the dems.
They're trying to keep it "winnable" so people don't give up and no-show on voting which down ballot would be even worse for them.
Either that or trying to keep it close so they can cheat.
The desperation and assassination attempts make me think it's more the former than the latter.
 
UW_Doog_Bot said:
Bendintheriver said:
thechatch said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1853471841425449227
Watch Wisconsin and NH.
NC/GA are going Red. The PA vote won’t come in until after WI, and by then it might be over anyway.
Click to expand...
I only follow 4 polling organizations. I dig deep in their data and their methods and know they are solid in their collection of accurate information. While 2016 was an outlier for them (2 predicted Trump would win and the others were off by a bit). 3 are picking Trump this time. It's kind of unusual historically for these guys to be as different in their conclusions as they are on this one. One has Trump up by quite a bit, two within a margin of error and the 4th with a toss up (again, unusual for these organizations). They are not affiliated with any university, mainstream media outlet, no party affiliation and they don't take a dime for their independent work on elections (the key ingredient and why I follow them so close) as they know that whoever is paying is biased when it comes to these election season polls and they want to stay away from that.
I am cautiously optimistic, but as we know for fact, democrats cheat and that creates variables no one can anticipate.
Click to expand...
Pollsters also famously fail to contact low propensity Trump voters.
Add early voting in and it's really hard to predict.
Cautiously optimistic that it's going to be too big to cheat out of.
Click to expand...

Pollsters also famously fail to contact low propensity Trump voters.

Curious if anyone on this board has responded to any polling? Between text and spam calls I'm getting probably north of 40 interactions per day. Deleted every single one.
 
georgiaduck said:
UW_Doog_Bot said:
Bendintheriver said:
thechatch said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1853471841425449227
Watch Wisconsin and NH.
NC/GA are going Red. The PA vote won’t come in until after WI, and by then it might be over anyway.
Click to expand...
I only follow 4 polling organizations. I dig deep in their data and their methods and know they are solid in their collection of accurate information. While 2016 was an outlier for them (2 predicted Trump would win and the others were off by a bit). 3 are picking Trump this time. It's kind of unusual historically for these guys to be as different in their conclusions as they are on this one. One has Trump up by quite a bit, two within a margin of error and the 4th with a toss up (again, unusual for these organizations). They are not affiliated with any university, mainstream media outlet, no party affiliation and they don't take a dime for their independent work on elections (the key ingredient and why I follow them so close) as they know that whoever is paying is biased when it comes to these election season polls and they want to stay away from that.
I am cautiously optimistic, but as we know for fact, democrats cheat and that creates variables no one can anticipate.
Click to expand...
Pollsters also famously fail to contact low propensity Trump voters.
Add early voting in and it's really hard to predict.
Cautiously optimistic that it's going to be too big to cheat out of.
Click to expand...

Pollsters also famously fail to contact low propensity Trump voters.

Curious if anyone on this board has responded to any polling? Between text and spam calls I'm getting probably north of 40 interactions per day. Deleted every single one.
Click to expand...
I get contacted a lot.
I don't pick up for Marxists though.
 
georgiaduck said:
UW_Doog_Bot said:
Bendintheriver said:
thechatch said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1853471841425449227
Watch Wisconsin and NH.
NC/GA are going Red. The PA vote won’t come in until after WI, and by then it might be over anyway.
Click to expand...
I only follow 4 polling organizations. I dig deep in their data and their methods and know they are solid in their collection of accurate information. While 2016 was an outlier for them (2 predicted Trump would win and the others were off by a bit). 3 are picking Trump this time. It's kind of unusual historically for these guys to be as different in their conclusions as they are on this one. One has Trump up by quite a bit, two within a margin of error and the 4th with a toss up (again, unusual for these organizations). They are not affiliated with any university, mainstream media outlet, no party affiliation and they don't take a dime for their independent work on elections (the key ingredient and why I follow them so close) as they know that whoever is paying is biased when it comes to these election season polls and they want to stay away from that.
I am cautiously optimistic, but as we know for fact, democrats cheat and that creates variables no one can anticipate.
Click to expand...
Pollsters also famously fail to contact low propensity Trump voters.
Add early voting in and it's really hard to predict.
Cautiously optimistic that it's going to be too big to cheat out of.
Click to expand...

Pollsters also famously fail to contact low propensity Trump voters.

Curious if anyone on this board has responded to any polling? Between text and spam calls I'm getting probably north of 40 interactions per day. Deleted every single one.
Click to expand...
I probably have at some point. I got the creepy letter showing me how much my neighbors voted, also.
 
A DNC election worker stopped by last Saturday to hand us some materials. I was polite and thanked her for her efforts because I’m not an asshole and then threw the pamphlets in the trash and went back to watching the Oregon/Michigan game.

HTH
 
thechatch said:
UW_Doog_Bot said:
thechatch said:
I think that the dem machines in MI and PN end up finding enough votes to win.
It will be Wisconsin that delivers Trump the presidency.
NC - Trump
AZ - Trump
GA - Trump
PN - Harris
MI - Harris
WI - Trump
VA - Harris
NV - Trump
FL, TX, OH will not be close.
Click to expand...
NH and Virginia are out there in play as well. Lotta wild shit that can still happen.
Click to expand...
Both within the MoE but I think WI gets called for Trump before VA is decided and that would be the nail in Kamala’s coffin.
Let me put it this way. Would her campaign along with CNN and MSNBC be pushing the absurd Liz Cheney hoax if they thought they were up?
Of course not.
Click to expand...
@MelloDawg this is just an invitation for you to come back and downvote this again 😘
 
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